Daily Archives: December 27, 2019

Time posted: 7:36 pm

Weekend Flood Potential Update

Good evening, everyone. Our big storm system continues to inch closer to the bluegrass state and this will throw a lot of rain our way. This rain looks likely to cause some flooding issues as we head into Sunday and Sunday night.

My risk area hasn’t changed…

The afternoon run of the various forecast models continue to show an ominous look…

GFS

GFS Ensembles

ICON

Most of that rain falls in a roughly 12-18 hour window on Sunday. Flooding issues would be likely if those numbers are realized. Ugh.

I’m also watching a possible storm system for late next week. This one could bring another big rain event to the region. The GFS wants no part of that scenario as it overwhelms the region with cold air instead.

Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:06 pm

Updating The Weekend Flood Threat

Good afternoon, everyone. I wanted to drop by for a quick update to the flood threat coming Sunday and Sunday night. Rounds of heavy rain and strong storms look to target the region, bringing the potential for flooding and flash flooding.

Here’s my early look at the area of greatest concern…

Obviously, that can change a bit as we see where the heaviest corridor of rain sets up on Sunday, but the general trend isn’t a good one.

The model forecasts are concerning and have 4″+ amounts showing up, but disagree a bit on where…

Canadian

GFS

ICON

That’s ugly, especially given the fact we just had significant issues a few weeks ago and we are running way above normal on rain this fall and early winter.

Colder air rushes in by Monday, putting an end to the heavy rainfall. From there, backlash snow showers and flurries will be possible into New Year’s Eve.

Another storm system rolls our way from the southwest by Thursday and Friday. If that is a rain maker, things could go from bad to worse in terms of high water issues.

I will have the latest on WKYT starting at 4pm then with another KWC update this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:43 am

Weekend High Water Threat

Good Friday, folks. Super mild temps continue across the bluegrass state as we wait on our big weekend storm system. This will roll through here Sunday into Sunday night, bringing a lot of rain, wind and thunderstorms. It will also have a touch of winter coming in behind it.

Let’s begin with today and then focus on the weekend. A shower or two will be possible with a mostly cloudy sky…

Temps are mild with readings from the upper 50s to middle 60s.

As far as the weekend system is concerned, here are my thoughts:

  • Windy and mild weather will be with us on Saturday. Highs are deep into the 60s with some late day showers and storms possible.
  • As our low cranks across the plains and rides into the upper midwest, it drags a cold front toward the region. Watch for another low to pop along this front.
  • Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop from Saturday night through Sunday. Some of the storms may even be on the strong side, especially in the west.
  • Heavy rainfall of 1″-3″ will be possible across areas of the state with locally higher amounts showing up. The best chance of that may be into central areas.
  • Cold air crashes in behind this with a break in the precip initially. After that, a period of light snow and snow showers wraps in from the northwest later Monday into Tuesday. A few flakes may continue through New Year’s Morning.

Here’s how the GFS sees our system…

High water issues are likely if these rain numbers are realized…

The European Model has amounts approaching 4″…

In terms of severe weather, there is a small chance for severe stuff, especially in the west. Here’s the Saturday severe weather outlook from the SPC…

Here’s the Sunday outlook…

I will update things later today, so check back. Until then, make it a good one and take care.

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