Daily Archives: December 28, 2019

Time posted: 6:44 pm

Flood and Flash Flood Watches

Good evening, gang. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase later tonight and will really kick into high gear Sunday into Sunday evening. That’s when our flood threat will really increase with a general 1″-3″ of rain for much of the state.

I’m also watching another potential high water maker for the end of the week as our pattern transitions into a winter one.

My thoughts on the rainfall numbers haven’t changed from earlier…

Pinpointing the exact location of the heaviest rainfall is a task, but that’s my best shot. Anytime you’re dealing with convection, placement issues come into play.

Flood Watches are out for many, but these do not far enough east…

The new folks at the NWS in Jackson need to understand the region better. They were way slow with the flooding issues a few weeks ago and now they aren’t being proactive in getting a watch out for their western and northern counties. There is ZERO harm in issuing a watch. None, Nada, Zilch, Zippo.

The SPC has added parts of the state in the Marginal Risk for severe storms on Sunday…

We will still watch for the rain to end quickly late Sunday night as colder, drier winds settle in. A period of light snow and snow showers looks better as we get closer to our New Year’s Eve…

 

We are making the transition into a a full blown winter pattern and the mild is putting up a fight, leading to this storm system and one more by Thursday and Friday. That one may bring another high water threat to the region, but check out the cold air finally overwhelming the pattern on the European…

That’s forecasting a total pattern realignment across the northern hemisphere and, especially in North America. A trough going up east of Hawaii with a ridge developing along the west coast is a great sign for winter lovers in the eastern part of the US. You will also notice the crazy cold in Alaska is being pushed southeast into Canada as ridging develops in Alaska.

Here are your Saturday evening tracking toys…

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:46 pm

Flood Threat Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Our storm system continues to steam toward the region and will bring an increasing threat for flooding Sunday into Sunday night. Rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms will be rumbling across the region during this time.

Let me begin with my rainfall forecast…

As you can see, this is a widespread 1″-3″ rainfall, with a corridor of 3″+ showing up. I’ve tried to pinpoint that across much of central Kentucky as this appears to be the favored corridor for the heaviest rains.

The midday model trends back this up, but vary a bit on placement…

Canadian

GFS Ensembles

GFS is farthest west with the heaviest rain corridor…

Flood Watches should be coming soon for much of the region…

The air coming in behind this turns dry and colder for Monday with backlash light snows trying to come in here Monday night through New Year’s Eve…

GFS Ensembles

Canadian

I will have another update this evening, so check back. I leave you with your daily dose of tracking tools…

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:58 am

Flood Threat Sunday and Sunday Night

Good Saturday, everyone. It’s full steam ahead toward a heavy rain event rolling in here Sunday and Sunday night. This heavy rain is likely to lead to some flooding issues across parts of the bluegrass state. All of this is ahead of a colder setup to end the year.

My thoughts on the corridor of heaviest rains have not changed. This looks like a general 1″-3″ rainfall with locally higher amounts…

Much of that rain falls in a 12-18 hour window Sunday into Sunday evening. This would cause general flooding with localized flash flooding.

I would expect Flood Watches to be issued at some point today…

The first wave of showers and a few thunderstorms will move across western Kentucky this afternoon and evening. The SPC has far western Kentucky in the low-end risk for a few severe storms…

The rain will quickly taper off by Monday morning as a dry slot sweeps in under our low to the north. That’s a colder wind blowing and we could see some backlash snow showers and flurries coming in for New Year’s Eve. This is something the models have been showing for a while, especially the GFS Ensembles and the Canadian…

I will have updates later today. Until then, here are your early Saturday tracking tools…

Make it a good one and take care.

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