Daily Archives: January 1, 2020

Time posted: 7:23 pm

Flood Threat Late Thursday and Friday

Good evening, everyone. It’s all eyes on rounds of heavy rain moving in for the next few days. With a saturated ground and swollen waterways, it won’t take much to cause additional high water issues. Unfortunately, this is looking like another 1″-3″ rainfall for many of the same areas hard hit just a few days ago.

My rainfall forecast remains unchanged…

The Euro continues to show some 3″+ amounts in the southeast…

So does the ICON…

The GFS is, as expected. playing catch up and coming around to the heavy rain potential…

Given all the data and where what happened earlier this week, one would assume Flood Watches would be issued. One would assume wrong…

I will never understand this thought process. Folks, as a lifelong Kentucky, it does not take much rain to cause flooding issues around here. Hopefully some watches get issued soon, especially into much of southern and southeastern Kentucky.

This rain ends as a period of snow Saturday into Saturday night, and this may include some sticking snows.

The next system coming in after that continues to show up well on the European Model, though it changes from run to run. Here’s the latest run…

Enjoy the rest of your New Year and take care.

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Time posted: 12:22 pm

New Year’s Day Update

Good afternoon, everyone and Happy New Year! As we leave behind the things that held us back in 2019, here’s hoping we all soar to new heights in 2020. The new year is off and running with plenty of sunshine, but it heavy rain and some winter weather are ready to return.

Our first item up for bids is a potential flood maker Thursday through early Saturday. I have zero changes to my thoughts with a general 1″-2″ of rain, with some 3″ amounts possible in the south and southeast…

With a saturated ground and already swollen waterways, it won’t take much to cause renewed high water issues. I would expect Flood Watches to be issued later today or early Thursday.

The 6z run of the Euro continues to match my thoughts…

The GFS is so disjointed with the whole setup that it continues to have a hard time focusing on the rain potential…

It is increasing the totals as we get closer, though. Knowing model biases in certain setups comes in very handy.

A Saturday low pressure looks to wrap up across our region as it lifts to the north and northeast. This is why the Euro has been showing better snow chances. Now we have the NAM trying to do the same thing…

The 6z EURO only goes through Saturday evening, but it looks even more pronounced than the overnight run…

The system coming in behind that continues to have potential for Tuesday and Wednesday or next week…

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and again on KWC this evening. Have a wonderful New Year’s Day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:22 am

Heavy Rain On The Way

Good Wednesday and Happy New Year! As we begin a brand new year, here’s hoping 2020 is your best year yet! I know that is certainly my goal in all forms of life! 🙂 As far as the weather is concerned, we continue to track some big rains rolling in for the next few days.

Temps for day one of the new year aren’t bad at all as the sun returns. That will be short-lived as clouds roll back in this evening ahead of our big rain maker for the next few days.

As we have talked about for a while, this will likely bring another flood threat to much of the region. We have a saturated ground, our creeks and streams are already rolling and our rivers have been in flood. It won’t take much to get renewed issues to show up.

My current rainfall forecast continues to be the same…

The European Model continues to be similar to my line of thinking…

The Canadian isn’t as far north and west, but targets the same areas with the heaviest rains……

The ICON…

If you’re using the GFS or NAM, you’re doing it wrong. Both models are struggling to grasp the setup properly. We have got to work on our American Models.

Once into Saturday, rain is likely to change to snow. The European Model continues to be much more emphatic with the snow potential…

The Canadian isn’t as amped up, but it’s not that far away…

The system following that up by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week continues to show up differently on each model and even different from run to run. Watch for a farther south trend on the Euro…

I will have your normal updates later today. Have a wonderful and blessed New Year. Take care.

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