Daily Archives: January 22, 2020

Time posted: 7:44 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. My time is short, but I’m still dropping by for an update on the storm system ahead of us. This impacts our region from Thursday through Sunday and will bring rain and some snow into our part of the world.

My overall thoughts from the past several days are still the same. There could be a touch of frozen stuff in the far west tonight, but rain moves in Thursday into Thursday night. Temps surge across the east into Friday as rain and gusty winds roll on.

As our upper level flow takes control and our new low takes over to our east Saturday, rain and some wet snow will be possible. A few periods of light snow and snow showers would be possible through Sunday. Can we get some slushy accumulations from this? Maybe, but the temps are marginal, so we shall see.

One thing is for sure, the GFS is taking a beating with this overall setup as it is already missing the snow falling in the Mississippi Valley. Here’s the current snow forecast through the weekend…

Here’s the NAM…

Notice how the model continues to throw some wraparound wet snows in here by Friday night and continues that through the end of the run Saturday night…

The Hi Res NAM only goes through 1am Saturday, but is suggesting the same…

The European Model has a similar look…

Notice how the snow forecast to our west is MUCH different from the GFS, but matches the NAM…

This is a pattern that isn’t very cold looking, but could be cold enough as we get several southern storm systems over the next few weeks.

Make it a great day and take care.

8 Comments

Time posted: 12:11 pm

Wednesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Temps are slowly coming out of the deep freeze and now we focus our attention on a system moving in later this week into the weekend. This one looks to bring rain and some snow our way as an active southern storm track gets reestablished.

Let’s start with the cold from this morning. Lows were close to singles in some areas…

The system later this week continues to have an impact timeline from late Thursday through Sunday. The NAM  goes through 7pm Saturday evening and you can see how wraparound light snows begin to show up as early as Friday night…

Here’s the snow forecast from the NAM through the same time…

The Canadian has a similar thought process with some wraparound flakes going through Sunday with a second little system on Monday… Here’s the snow map…

The GFS continues to be the outlier with the overall thermal setup for the entire storm system…

It still can’t find much snow to our west and northwest…

The GFS Ensembles seem to have a better handle on that…

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm then on KWC later this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

7 Comments

Time posted: 2:12 am

Another Healthy System Ahead

Good Wednesday to one and all. Temps are coming up, but clouds are already rolling in ahead of our next storm system. This continues to look like a rain and snow maker for much of our region, but there are some questions with the flakes part of the storm. Shocking, right?

The first wave of precipitation impacts the state Thursday and could be a brief mix in the west. Showers will then quickly develop and overspread the state Thursday night into Friday. From there, we watch one low spin into the Ohio Valley and close off as another low develops to our east.

The models continue to trend toward a little better setup for some snow on Saturday. The current run of the NAM only goes through 7am Saturday, but you can clearly see the snows wrapping in here…

Here’s the Canadian…

EURO

The GFS is the lone model that want’s little part of snow… Anywhere. The thermals look way too warm with this across the Mississippi Valley and east…

That’s VERY apparent on the snowfall maps. Don’t even look at Kentucky and, instead, focus on areas to our west and look at how drastically different the GFS is from everything else…

GFS

GFS Ensembles

Canadian

EURO

Even the NAM just through 7am Saturday…

Obviously, all the models have some disagreement, but the poor GFS isn’t even in the same ballpark with this storm anywhere.

I will have updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.

17 Comments