Daily Archives: February 9, 2020

Time posted: 2:11 pm

Breaking Down The Week Ahead Flood Threat

Good afternoon, everyone. A little bonus shot of winter weather is moving across far northern Kentucky, but it’s all about the rain train rolling back in. Waves of rain and some thunderstorms will be with us for the week ahead, bringing another big increase in the flood threat.

The first round of rain arrives tonight and into Monday as a front slides in from the northwest. That front slows down across Tennessee and keeps rain going across the southeast into early Tuesday. High water issues can easily develop.

A more powerful setup will move in for Wednesday and early Thursday as a strong low pressure works over us or to our west. Torrential rains and even the potential for strong to severe storms will be noted along this system.

Between now and Thursday, several inches of rain may fall across parts of Kentucky. Here’s a look at those most at risk…

The GFS did best with our last rain setup, so it gets my nod this go around. Here are the totals through Thursday…

The Canadian did pretty good, too. Here’s the rain map from the latest run…

After a colder shot for the end of the week into the start of the weekend, another system may move in with more rain by late weekend or early the following week.

If we expand the GFS rain forecast out to 10 days, this is what it looks like…

Shew, this could get ugly, again.

I mentioned the potential for severe storms and the SPC has areas of the state in the severe weather risk for this Wednesday…

I would expect Flood Watches to be issued soon…

Here are your radars to track the increase in rain from the northwest…

Have a great Sunday evening and take care.

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Time posted: 1:36 am

Flood Threat Returns

Good Sunday, everyone. After a few days of winter weather broke up the heavy rain pattern, it’s ready to return for the week ahead. Several inches of rain are likely this week and we should see, unfortunately, more flooding problems. This is a very ugly setup for much of the region.

As you know, areas of southeastern Kentucky have been devastated by flooding in rent days.The Cumberland River almost broke the record for highest levels in Pineville and Williamsburg, and hit the top 10 for Barbourville.

Flood Warnings are still out for the Cumberland and a few other rivers…

The first round of rain moves in tonight and Monday, so I suspect Flood Watches go up today…

The NAM rainfall map goes through 7am Wednesday and is ugly…

Waves of low pressure work through the region for the rest of the week, bringing more heavy rains… The GFS rainfall map through Thursday night is scary…

The Canadian is similar, but has more of a wintry end to it all…

Here are the rain numbers from the Canadian…

The EURO isn’t quite as hefty as the other two models, but still shows some big time rains…

I will have updates later today. Until then, here are your radars to get things started…

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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