Good Sunday, everyone. Much needed rain is likely to fall across the bluegrass state over the next few days. The trade off may come in the form of a few strong or severe storms. What follows the storms will be fall or winter looking jet stream that delivers the threat of record cold to much of the country.

Scattered storms are possible through today, but a line of big boomers may move in from the northwest this afternoon and evening. These may be severe and I will have your tracking tools in a bit.

The threat for showers and storms will increase Monday into early Tuesday as our cold pattern sweeps in. Here’s the European Model…

Euro

This provides us with a very good chance for another round of strong and severe storms Monday. It also gives us a better than even shot at widespread, beneficial rains.

Check out the wintertime look to the mid-week pattern…

Euro 3Record or near record cold is likely across Kentucky and much of the plains states and east. I was looking at some of the records lows for this timeframe and they match up with a couple of other years that featured developing weak to moderate el ninos… 1976 and 2009.

Watch for a possible piece of upper level energy swinging in behind this by the end of the week into next weekend. The European Model shows this…

Euro 2

I leave you with the storm tracking tools…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Make it a great Sunday and take care.