Good Saturday and welcome to the final weekend of July. Things are looking rather active out there late today into Sunday as strong and severe thunderstorms rumble in. These storms may bring damaging winds and even a tornado threat to our part of the world.
Here’s a breakdown:
– Steamy conditions will invade the state today as humidity levels and temps take off. Upper 80s to around 90 will be possible in central and eastern Kentucky with low 90s in the west.
– Isolated showers and storms will be possible during the daylight hours.
– A complex of storms will likely form to our northwest this afternoon and roll our way late this evening into the overnight. That could be a damaging wind maker and contain torrential rains that may cause local high water issues into Sunday morning.
– The actual cold front enters the picture Sunday afternoon and should spawn additional strong to severe thunderstorms. A few of these storms COULD get out on their own and deliver a small tornado threat.
– September air tumbles in behind the front by Monday. Leftover showers, gusty winds and much cool air sweeps in. Highs will likely stay in the 70s from Monday through Wednesday with the potential for lows to drop into the upper 40s to low 50s on any night with clear skies.
Let’s get to tracking…
Today’s risk area
Current watches
Possible watch areas 
I will have updates as needed. Have a great day and take care.
SPC upgrades severe risk…Louisville is included in a moderate risk while Lexington is shaded in slight risk for later this evening into the overnight.
Day2 outlook has eastern KY in the bulls eye for moderate risk. Unusual for this time of year. The metro is barely in the moderate risk and that risk moves further east tomorrow. We are in between which means the heaviest will move through tonight and will weaken. It will then re-generate tomorrow over eastern Ky. I’ll just be happy to hear thunder!! It’s been an crappy severe season this year.
I’d be happy just to get rain…and I do mean actual rain, not just drizzle or sprinkles.
See the latest outlook? The SPC giveth and the SPC taketh away.
SPC admits everything is still unclear how this system will eventually develop. I think they are being conservative. They really won’t know how to forecast this complex for our region until later this evening as the cap in place is expected to erode.
I agree. It’s a wait and see game. Next update is in a few hours so I’m heading back outside to enjoy the day. See you later Mike.
Thanks Chris. It is sounding like you are going to have a very busy couple of days. While I am not a big fan of severe weather, I especially dislike it at night. Somehow, daylight hours make it less scary. Got a lot of stuff to do today so I guess I had better get started! Have a great Saturday everyone. Thanks in advance Chris, for all you do. I feel like we may be seeing or hearing from you later today and tonight!
The NWS SPC has expanded the moderate risk to include Lexington. Here is their basic, short summary… TORNADOES…DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY… SOUTHERN OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. (Sunday)
SPC’s full discussion here
Some mets feeling very uncertain though. All the ingredients for very severe weather will be there Sunday. But what dictates whether or not how bad the storms get tomorrow depends on the placement, coverage, and to a certain degree, strength, of today’s storms. I will miss the whole show though, leaving for vacation this evening.
Im certain about one thing, the rain is drying up as its dropping into NCentral KY, that pattern is set in stone!
lol
Once again the rain is a dryin up as it comes in to our area in ne ky.
thats because the air is way to dry…..them showers are with a warm front that will bring much more muggy air into the region by this evening and that is why chris said late this afternoon or tonight for your neck of the woods.
Up to 77 here now.Not sure we will make it to near 90 as some sites have forecast.Some sunshine but so far mostly overcast.Just a slight breeze so its actually been a very comfortable day.
Hoping everyone that need the coming rains will get them but without the storms.I especially hate when bad weather comes after dark.
Interesting forecast Chris.Just never know what to expect lately.
radar looks very impressive.
of course its looked impressive the whole Summer season before it reaches the Ohio River.
I Know, the split and fade will show up, count on it for N central KY!
Maybe it is your attitude that keeps you from getting rain.
you know it never snows here also.
LOL.
its just been a bad luck summer for rain in my parts.
Beth is so superstitious haha! 😉
I guess mine and the other thousands of people in the dry areas 😉 ??
SPC drops moderate risk due to lack of confidence in the development of the much anticipated MCS. They are always tough to forecast several hours in advance.
Looks like the storms die at the Ohio River and regenerate in SE KY. No different that what has been seen all summer. At least we haven’t needed to mow this month.
You got that right. My house is on a hill and I have piers under my foundation. Drought like conditions reek havoc on my foundation. We need a long, slow, soaking rain.
Looks like Owensboro will be the bullseye area
This looks to be more of a SE Ohio, far NE Ky, and WVa. Event for Sunday more than anything for Central Ky.
Toney was right….Chris too. The rain didn’t make it in earlier today, but the storms showing up now on radar look like they might make it into our area here in NE KY this evening. Everyone stay safe, watch for the latest warnings, and keep up with Chris.
I’ll bet a hundred bucks that is splits or diminishes in intensity when it gets near the metro.
I’m watching for that exact thing to happen.
watch out now Beth will say you rainless folks have a bad attitude!
The local forecast alert for us is saying
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO COME IN TWO WAVES
BETWEEN 3 AM AND 9 AM SUNDAY MORNING
THE SECOND MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVEREWEATHER THREAT WILL THEN OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 9 PM ON SUNDAY
Sorry for the caps.Lazy copy and paste.
‘real time lightning strikes’. Well, almost real time. It’s about a 1-2 minute lag at least through my internet speed.
http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en
actually it really is real time. these appear to be cloud to ground strikes. Looks very dangerous.
I have a wild looking light show here in Valley Station
Even San Bernardino County, California of all places had a flood warning a few hours ago. Perhaps some southwest monsoon moisture drifting somewhat farther west than normal. Anyway, if parts of California can get heavy rain when it’s otherwise their dry season, perhaps we can hope dry areas around here are next 😉 .
Look at the radar folks, this stuff is fading as it comes into Ncentral KY, this is crazy, and about the 8th time in a row these storms fade or split in this area??”?
Most of this stuff tonight is going to be Louisville and west of that!
SW Jefferson County got absolutely nailed by this powerhouse line of storms power out everywhere incredible cloud to ground lightning with hail winds in excess of 65 mph.
Transformers were blowing simultaneously during the height of the storm