Good Monday, everyone. What a weather weekend in the bluegrass state! A severe weather outbreak rocked the region with damaging winds and very large hail. I had more tornado warnings to deal with than at any time since March 2nd of 2012. The severe threat is over and now we track the potential for near record cold in the coming days.
The next few days may go down as one of the cooler endings to July on record around here. The setup will feature a deep trough digging in across the eastern part of the country through Wednesday. This will unleash a big-time shot of fall air that could drop overnight lows into the upper 40s to low 50s on any night that has clear skies.
Check out the GFS forecast lows…
Those numbers would set some record lows if they verify. We would nee clear skies and little in the way of fog to do that, but a wet ground argues for some fog. Regardless… we will be very close to records.
Highs will generally range in the 70s through Wednesday with a daily threat for showers and even an isolated thunderstorm. Any areas getting in on afternoon clouds and showers may see temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.
The deep trough will leave behind a closed upper level low by the coming weekend…
That should lead to an increase in showers and a few thunderstorms by late week into the coming weekend. Afternoon temps won’t respond very might with highs from the upper 70s to low 80s.
How about the first week of August? The cooler than normal pattern remains…
There is some data suggesting August turns out similar to July with much below normal temperatures. Summer? Meh… who needs it. 😉
I leave you with today’s trackers…
Current temperatures
Have a great day and take care.
Totally on board for these below normal temps. What an interesting Summer we’ve had. Hopefully these dances with cooler temps are hinting at an early Fall!
The NWS in Jackson confirmed an EF1 tornado in southern Leslie County yesterday.
I don’t know much about that area. I think a few of us saw that signature yesterday. The one I saw came out of a secluded area of Roark moving toward or just south of Muncy Creek near US421 and Greasy Creek Road. I could be wrong on that location though. I guess we’ll find out soon.
Never mind. Just saw the update. It was near Helton
Looked at NWS map. There was a signature in Roark and it moved southeast and touched down a few minutes later east of Helton. I’m sure that was the same one we saw yesterday.
There was also 4.25 inch hail in Leslie County KY. Ouch!
In addition, NWS Morristown TN is investigating a couple of possible tornadoes in east TN, including one near Harrogate TN/Middlesboro KY inwhich about 10 homes were reported “destroyed”:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/140727_rpts.html
SPC at one time had an elevated chance of a stronger tornado (EF2 and higher). Based on this, my hunch was that there would be a couple of EF0s and EF1s with perhaps an EF2. It will be interesting to see what NWS Morristown finds, but this is a time I would not mind being wrong about the EF2 prediction. I was also a bit concerned about there being at least one fatality in KY and/or TN, ending the zero tornado death mark during all July months in recorded history for both states; I’m extra glad I was wrong about this prediction.
This last storm system seems to have further shown that summer tornadoes in our area fortunately don’t hold a candle to the spring months and even during fall and winter.
Much like the last wave of cool temps, Southern Madison is still waiting to get below a 60 dewpoint. Share the wealth guys!
Meanwhile on the other side of the county, normally very dry states like Nevada have an unusual look on the SPC map: Lots of green for Flash Flood Watches. Even a Flash Flood Warning for the California desert just southeast of Death Valley.
Yep, looks like the southwest monsoon is in full swing 😉 .