Good Monday, everyone. We’re rolling our way into the first week of August and things look to turn a little stormy later this week. That’s certainly great news for areas of the state still needing to make up some ground in the rainfall department. I’m also tracking a pattern that continues to favor cooler than normal temps.

Let’s start with today and roll forward. Highs will range form the low 80s in the east to 90 in the west. It’s western parts of the state that has the driest ground and that allows temps to spike. That will be the trend of the next few days.

Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible through Tuesday.

The action starts to increase by Wednesday into Thursday and should really take off by the end of the week into the weekend. A potent area of low pressure looks to work right on top of the state. That un-summer type setup should deliver rounds of showers and storms.

The European Model continues to spit out some hefty totals…

Euro 2

The GFS has been beyond awful of late and is in it’s usual catch up mode. It is finally starting to see the setup the other models have been showing for days…

GFS 4

That’s still too disjointed as the model suffers a lot of feedback issues with thunderstorms.

The overall pattern continues to be skewed cooler than normal for much of the central and eastern part of the country. The numbers through the middle of August don’t really change a ton on the GFS Ensembles…

GFS 2

GFS 3That certainly takes us past the “heart” of the summer heat season around here. While the pattern is cooler overall, that doesn’t mean we can get toasty from time to time. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 90 show up after Labor Day.

Have a great Monday and take care.