Good Thursday, everyone. The weather is so nice that your friendly weatherdude is having a hard time staying focused. So, this update is likely to have a whole lot of randomness to it. Let’s call it free styling! 🙂

The weather in the short term continues to about as nice as it gets with upper 60s to low 70s out there today under a mostly sunny sky. The weekend starts with low and mid 70s for Friday with mid and upper 70s to near 80 on Saturday. Winds will gust up with a cold front arriving on Sunday. That leads to scattered showers and thunderstorms going up.

The air behind this continues to look chilly for next week. The GFS Ensemble Mean shows the temperature anomalies in Celsius for the 5 day period…

GFS 2

How cold that air actually gets around here still depends a lot on what happens with the leftovers from the Pacific hurricane across the west and plains. Also, keep a close eye on a possible storm developing off the Carolina coast.

Speaking of the GFS Ensembles, check out the “best match years” for our end of September setup…

CPC

2009 takes the top two spots and that’s a year I have been looking at for the winter ahead. You will also find the bitter winters of 1963 and 1969 on that list. There are 4 years on that list I am looking at for the fall and winter ahead of us. Any guesses on which 4? I already gave ya one!

Maybe I should just scrap looking at past years and go with the two main Almanacs forecast…

Farmers Almanac 1 Farmers Almanac 2Hmmm… that would be a lot less stressful and less time consuming for me to do. But, I think I will keep doing my normal thing.

Make it a great day and take care.