Good Sunday, friends and neighbors. September is running out of days with the month of October right on our doorstep. Our tenth month is usually a big month of weather changes around here, so it’s appropriate to track a big change in the first few days of the month.

Speaking of months… I will also take a look into the winter months!

First, we have to track the potential for some rain for parts of the region. The greatest threat for a few showers later today into Monday will be across the south and southeast. The rest of the region can see a shower or two going up, but the potential isn’t nearly as great.

Current Temperatures

A big cold front will move our way into the second half of the week. This boundary will produce a few scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of it by Thursday as winds crank up. The actual cold front sweeps in on Friday with a line of showers and thunderstorms and gusty winds…

GFS

Friday is likely to feature a big temperature crash from west to east as chilly air pulls in from the west and northwest. Highs for Saturday and Sunday may not get past the low to mid 60s with lows that can reach the 30s with clear skies. Dare I speak of patchy frost for the first time this season?  Yep… why not?!

Look at the below normal temps showing up on the models…

GFS 3

I said we would talk a little wintertime, so let’s do just that. One of the better seasonal models comes from Japan and is called the JMA. This model did a great job with picking up the brutal winter for much of the country last year. It’s trying to show a pattern that could produce similar results.

The maps aren’t the highest of quality, so I’ve highlighted North America. Here’s the view from the model for December…

JMA 1The top map shows the 500mb anomalies and would indicate massive blocking across the northwestern part of the country and into Alaska. In turn, you get a downstream trough across the eastern part of the country. That allows for colder than normal temps for much of the country (bottom map).

If we expand that out to include December-February period… you get little change in the overall pattern…

 JMA 2

If you visit this site often, you’ve heard me harping on how little the overall setup has changed in North America since last fall. The above forecast from the JMA suggests that continues through the upcoming winter.

There are more indicators for a nationwide colder than normal winter than I have seen during my 16 year run at this. From the analog years to the seasonal models to the ocean temp profile… they are all on the “Rosco P. “Cold”train”.

Rosco

Let’s see how things look later this fall before we get too excited.

Enjoy your Sunday and take care.