Good Monday, folks. Warmer than normal weather continues across the bluegrass state, but things are about to take a chilly change. A powerful fall cold front will arrive later this week and unleash a blast of chill that takes us into the coming weekend.

Temps today through Thursday will likely range from the upper 70s to low 80s for most areas. A shower or two will continue to be possible across southeastern Kentucky today, but most areas stay dry.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely along and ahead of our late week front. This action arrives later Thursday from west to east…

Euro

Once the front zips through, we will need to watch for a possible disturbance diving in from the northwest later Saturday…

Euro 2That’s a heck of a cold shot showing up on the European Model. It’s no wonder when you look at how deep this trough is…

Euro 3

Highs on Saturday may struggle to get out of the low 60s with gusty winds and the possibility of a stray shower. Some 30s will likely show up by Sunday morning if skies can clear.

Additional cold air shots show up in the next few weeks. Speaking of the next few weeks, the GFS Ensembles Forecast for the time period around October 6th shows some interesting analog years…

Analogs1976, 2002, 1965 and 1979 are years that featured a developing El Nino… similar to what we’re seeing now. How did those winters turn out across the country?

Analogs 2THAT is one cold map for much of the country.

Enjoy your day and take care.