Good Monday, everyone. Warm and humid air has invaded Kentucky and that’s not a good thing. This will help fire up rounds of strong and severe thunderstorms as a powerhouse system moves our way. This is all part of our very active pattern that looks to grow much colder later this week into next.
Today’s storms will be scattered early in the day and a few of those could be strong. A squall line of storms will roll into western Kentucky later in the day and that SLOWLY rolls eastward tonight into Tuesday. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes will be possible with this line. It’s also a slow mover, so flooding rains will be possible. Your trackers in a bit.
I have no changes to my week long ideas of an upper low closing off across the region for Wednesday and Thursday…
Chilly showers and gusty winds will highlight both of those days. Highs should mainly run in the 50s.
Another shot of chill arrives this weekend as a front passes through on Saturday…
Temps may reach the upper 30s by Sunday morning with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s.
There continues to be a tremendous amount of blocking showing up across North America and the Northern Hemisphere. That may deliver another slow moving storm system that takes on a colder look about a week from now…
Let’s get back to what we have out there today… the potential for severe weather. Your trackers…
Today’s risk area
Current watches
Have a great day and take care.
As the map on the KWC page shows, the SPC now has a moderate risk of severe wx that includes extreme western parts of Kentucky and Tennessee.
Strong damaging straight-line winds are by far the threat with the highest probability.
But there is a 10% chance of some isolated tornadoes within a 25 mile point, and a few of these twisters could be EF2 or stronger. While this may not be near the tornado threat compared to March 2 2012, everybody still needs to make sure wx radios, cell phones or other early warning devices are ready.
As Chris touched on, there could also be some flooding issues. A few Flash Flood Warnings popping up in south-central Tennessee. Rain starting to get heavier here in Nashville, so watch out north-central TN into Kentucky. Flash Flood Watch now out for much of central KY.
“Interesting” used by two of my favorite mets regarding the weather next week.
R.I.P. first snowfall hope for this date. I shall drink a hot toddy in your honor.
Good Lord, you were shooting for a incredibly early snowfall. That backfired terribly highs upper 70’s maybe a few spots hitting 80 depending on any real sun that can break through the cloud cover. Gotta love the optimism
I see there is a flood threat for my area from early Tuesday through Tuesday night according to the NWS. Luckily missed the rain over the weekend mostly. Nothing heavy or long lasting. Otherwise the issue could be worse.
I am just hoping for a decent dry weekend. Would like to see 2 more nice dry days in a row that are somewhere near 70.
Yea, the t-storms/heavy rains very early this morning in both KY and TN weakened somewhat by sunrise.
Of course, still a ways to go.
I picked up just a touch over a half inch from the rains earlier this morning in my neck of the woods so not to shabby.
The SPC has raised the tornado probability from 10% to 15% for far western parts of Kentucky and Tennessee.
What is the percentage for central ky….mercer county?
Less than 2% at this time but that is well before the main line (currently at Memphis TN and approaching far western KY) arrives. This line may become a bit less tornadic as it moves east, but time will tell.
The SPC will have a new update about thirty minutes from now.
Thank you so much for answering. I am scared to derath of tornadoes.
Joyce, with this sort of set-up I’ll be more concern with damaging winds and flash flooding then tornados. There could be some brief spin-ups with the main line but no violent long lived tornado’s. Only thing that would be of concern (tornado wise) if there was a few renegade storms that develop out ahead of the line. Something that could happen but nothing so far.
Thank you so much prelude.
Good points.
Unfortunately, in the last little while a supercell t-storm has fired up in Chester County TN (along the AL line); tornado warning in effect with a hook echo.
…and tornado spotted on ground there. This supercell is ahead of the main line.
It’s in southwestern TN along the Mississippi line but not far from the Alabama line.
Tornado signature heading for Clarksville TN
Todd county in Ky next..Look out Elkton