Good Wednesday to one and all. November is creeping up on us and that means winter is just around the corner. It also means the blog is about ready to kick things into high gear with multiple updates each day. In honor of our busy season ahead, I thought I would get you in the mood by talking about the winter ahead.

Before we get to the frozen talk… Here are a few nuggets about the short range forecast:

– Showers will be common today into Thursday with gusty winds and generally chilly temps. Highs will range from the mid 50s to the low 60s. We could see a few small hail producing showers during this time.

– Friday looks good ahead of another shot of chill for the weekend. Highs may stay in the 50s for Saturday and Sunday with lows dropping deep into the 30s by Sunday. Some frost is possible.

– Another chilly rain maker tries to move in here early next week. That one will have to be watched to see just how much cold air it can tap. The GFS Ensembles show temps remaining well below normal next week…

GFS 2

The pattern should throw another mild spell our way before the month is over. The latest CFS forecast shows the overall pattern skewing colder than normal through Thanksgiving…

CFS

The above model does show a mild spell or two coming during this time, but that’s not enough to outdo the colder than normal periods. One such period shows up strongly in the days leading up to Thanksgiving…

CFS 2

Once into November, we start looking out for the possibility of snow. Several of my analog years featured snows in November and a couple of them had sizable late month systems. Of course, that doesn’t mean this November will follow along, but it is something to watch for.

That’s especially true when seasonal models start pointing in that direction.  Recent runs of the CFS show the threat of snow into our region during the 10 day window from November 3-13…

CFS 3

That same model shows decent snows across much of the country in the 10 day period leading up to Thanksgiving…

CFS 4 Again, I am NOT saying those will be accurate. It’s just very interesting to see that much snow showing up that early in the season. This is especially true given what we are seeing with the early season snow cover in the northern hemisphere. It is literally off the chats at this point into October and ranks among the highest in recorded history.

That is following the trend that started in September when North America recorded the most snow cover on record…

Snow Cover

The amount of snow cover across North America and the northern hemisphere is a pretty big deal for those looking ahead toward winter. It’s normally a good indicator of a cold winter in the United States.

Are you excited, yet?

Make it a great day and take care.