Good Wednesday to one and all. November is creeping up on us and that means winter is just around the corner. It also means the blog is about ready to kick things into high gear with multiple updates each day. In honor of our busy season ahead, I thought I would get you in the mood by talking about the winter ahead.
Before we get to the frozen talk… Here are a few nuggets about the short range forecast:
– Showers will be common today into Thursday with gusty winds and generally chilly temps. Highs will range from the mid 50s to the low 60s. We could see a few small hail producing showers during this time.
– Friday looks good ahead of another shot of chill for the weekend. Highs may stay in the 50s for Saturday and Sunday with lows dropping deep into the 30s by Sunday. Some frost is possible.
– Another chilly rain maker tries to move in here early next week. That one will have to be watched to see just how much cold air it can tap. The GFS Ensembles show temps remaining well below normal next week…
The pattern should throw another mild spell our way before the month is over. The latest CFS forecast shows the overall pattern skewing colder than normal through Thanksgiving…
The above model does show a mild spell or two coming during this time, but that’s not enough to outdo the colder than normal periods. One such period shows up strongly in the days leading up to Thanksgiving…
Once into November, we start looking out for the possibility of snow. Several of my analog years featured snows in November and a couple of them had sizable late month systems. Of course, that doesn’t mean this November will follow along, but it is something to watch for.
That’s especially true when seasonal models start pointing in that direction. Recent runs of the CFS show the threat of snow into our region during the 10 day window from November 3-13…
That same model shows decent snows across much of the country in the 10 day period leading up to Thanksgiving…
Again, I am NOT saying those will be accurate. It’s just very interesting to see that much snow showing up that early in the season. This is especially true given what we are seeing with the early season snow cover in the northern hemisphere. It is literally off the chats at this point into October and ranks among the highest in recorded history.
That is following the trend that started in September when North America recorded the most snow cover on record…
The amount of snow cover across North America and the northern hemisphere is a pretty big deal for those looking ahead toward winter. It’s normally a good indicator of a cold winter in the United States.
Are you excited, yet?
Make it a great day and take care.
So this is the start of another six month winter. Sounds good to me.
I can’t wait for the snow!
Bring down the dome , lets have some snow when its season for snow!
Excited for winter and the possible snows. Hope those early snow numbers are an indication for us here. Looking forward to tracking the possibilities with you here.
That makes me excited too!
I don’t know if anyone else has payed attention but here where I love I have not seen any black and brown wooly worms. Only saw two huge black ones. Hummm!!
While I’m a warm wx fan, I can take an occasional snow cover that soon melts. It will be very interesting to see if the coming winter will be very snowy, considering that a few places like Nashville have been relatively shortchanged in snow the last few years. This is despite some relatively nearby areas like much of Kentucky and even northern Alabama having above average snow last winter.
I do like watching how various systems come together to produce snowstorms, even if I may prefer being in the Cayman Islands during the actual snow event 😉 !
But before we get to winter, Tennessee and Kentucky are entering a secondary tornado/severe wx season that peaks in November.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/?n=2014fallsevereweatherawarenessday
While autumn is still not as risky as the spring months, fall months (and on more rare occasions even winter months) in our area have recorded more violent twisters.
On the other hand, summertime in our area tends to have only a few relatively weak tornadoes despite the large number of t-storms. Kentucky has never had summer twisters stronger than F2/EF2, while Tennessee has had only about two in all of recorded history:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mrx&storyid=98995&source=0
Give me a sunny 80 degree day with low humidity no mosquitoes and a willow tree and I’m happier than a pig in mud.
a BIG 10-4 on the mosquito aspect prelude. Lower the temp to 75 and I’m right with you! 🙂
74 degrees and sunny sky’s on Friday I’ll take that all day long.
:). Make it 70 degrees and you got a deal! A pig in mud (LMBO).
Let it SNOW! Let it SNOW! Let it SNOW! I will have to dust off my Martina McBride CD so I can play this song 🙂
Here I am feeling slightly guilty for enjoying temps in Phoenix that are average for Summer in Lexington. I return home on Saturday. 😉
Enjoy the wx there while you can, Jeff! I have a business trip to Denver and Salt Lake City in a few weeks; perhaps I can bribe the boss into sending me instead to places like Phoenix/Tucson/Las Vegas 😛 .
The southwest USA may be very thankful to have a long period of dry wx considering the very wet monsoon season this summer which as we know included destructive flash flooding.
im going out to buy a pallet of bread and a tanker load of milk. 🙂
Wonder if a weak El NINO will have any effect on Ky weather..Not looked at the data yet but believe 76-77, 77-78, may have been weak el nino’s…If my memory is correct seem’s like those yrs was very cold..Anyway’s signal’s are pointing to a good winter,hopefully something don’t come along an throw a monkey wrench into it..
Accuweather has released their winter forecast.
Also the NOAA releases their winter forecast tomorrow.
After experiencing the Polar Vortex earlier this year while caring for a farm full of animals by myself, I am no longer excited about cold weather. It can be snowy and in the 20’s but no need to be any colder. 🙂
Definitely excited. This post makes me pumped that winter isn’t too far off…not to mention your official 2014-15 winter weather predictions. Just make sure to send some of the northern KY love down south 😉
Chris you said snow cover in the northern hemisphere is a normally a good indicator of cold. Does it also normally mean more snow for the upcoming winter? Thanks.
Chris accuweather winter forecast is out its saying less harsh winter for the Ohio valley and dry do you agree chris
It has eastern ky in snowy conditions?
Yes I am very excited! Got my propane tank filled yesterday so bring on the snow n cold!