Good Monday, weather weenies. October is rolling right along and the colder than normal temps are doing the same. This is another week with average temps coming in below where we should be for this time of year. Much of that will be courtesy of a big east coast storm system.

Let’s get into it.

A system dives in from the northwest today and will bring an increase in clouds and the possibility of a few showers. Highs will range from the upper 50s north to mid 60s in the far west and south.

Current temperatures

Showers will increase a bit tonight into Tuesday as the storm passes to our east. That’s when this bad boy develops into a nor’easter…

GFS

That means gusty winds and chilly temps for our region into the middle of the week. We could also see a shower or two popping during this time. Overall, that’s a very blustery looking weather map.

The system SLOWLY pulls away by the end of the week. This is when we see the models disagreeing on where this pattern takes us. I suspect a lot of that is because of how the develop and handle a tropical system down in the Gulf of Mexico. Maybe the storm I said to watch for in September is fashionably late to the party? 🙂

The GFS shows that system zooming eastward across Florida and into the Atlantic and replacing with a ridge of high pressure that warms us into the 70s. It then follows that up with a decent cold front early next week…

GFS 2The European Model looks very different and slows that tropical system down across Florida, allowing for a trough to dive in from the northwest this weekend…

Euro

That could make for an interesting weather map if the European verifies.

I will say this… I do favor a decent mild spell at some point over the next couple of weeks. The pattern argues for it, but it was arguing for it this week, too. The models have been hinting at a mild start to November, but they are changing their tune as we get closer. A few runs of the GFS have even hinted at the first flakes flying during that time.

The CFS has shifted from a warmer than normal November to one that is colder than normal…

CFS

There’s a little bit of 2002 to this fall pattern and that led us into a sizeable severe weather outbreak in early November with a harsh winter that followed.

Have a great day and take care.