Good Monday, weather weenies. October is rolling right along and the colder than normal temps are doing the same. This is another week with average temps coming in below where we should be for this time of year. Much of that will be courtesy of a big east coast storm system.
Let’s get into it.
A system dives in from the northwest today and will bring an increase in clouds and the possibility of a few showers. Highs will range from the upper 50s north to mid 60s in the far west and south.
Current temperatures
Showers will increase a bit tonight into Tuesday as the storm passes to our east. That’s when this bad boy develops into a nor’easter…
That means gusty winds and chilly temps for our region into the middle of the week. We could also see a shower or two popping during this time. Overall, that’s a very blustery looking weather map.
The system SLOWLY pulls away by the end of the week. This is when we see the models disagreeing on where this pattern takes us. I suspect a lot of that is because of how the develop and handle a tropical system down in the Gulf of Mexico. Maybe the storm I said to watch for in September is fashionably late to the party? 🙂
The GFS shows that system zooming eastward across Florida and into the Atlantic and replacing with a ridge of high pressure that warms us into the 70s. It then follows that up with a decent cold front early next week…
The European Model looks very different and slows that tropical system down across Florida, allowing for a trough to dive in from the northwest this weekend…
That could make for an interesting weather map if the European verifies.
I will say this… I do favor a decent mild spell at some point over the next couple of weeks. The pattern argues for it, but it was arguing for it this week, too. The models have been hinting at a mild start to November, but they are changing their tune as we get closer. A few runs of the GFS have even hinted at the first flakes flying during that time.
The CFS has shifted from a warmer than normal November to one that is colder than normal…
There’s a little bit of 2002 to this fall pattern and that led us into a sizeable severe weather outbreak in early November with a harsh winter that followed.
Have a great day and take care.
Chris you was doing good until you said that word I don’t like severe hate that word harsh winter I can take that
Thanks Chris. You are just full of good news this morning aren’t you? ;). I know, you only call it like you see it. I know it’s supposed to get cooler but it seems we’ve missed the gradual part and gone straight to it. Wonder if that means anything for the upcoming winter…. Guess we will see. Have a greatmonday everyone.
Coffeady, I think we had a great run of fall weather this year, summer to fall transition quite nicely so far. Nothing really extreme.
How can you say “Have a great day and take care” after the previous statement that ended with “… a sizeable severe weather outbreak in early November with a harsh winter that followed”? I think I need to move somewhere warm! 😉
Severe, cold, mild or whatever. I say bring it and don’t live in fear.
Mmmm. Harsh winter to follow! Some of us can dream. So far this fall is turning in some great change of pace days. Makes it all a little less boring.
I getting worried about this winter. I fear the warmer than normal arctic temperatures and cooler of GOA waters may limit cold air availability this winter. I don’t think we’ll have to worry about a crazy, intense winter like last year.
Very cool October in my book, I’ve seen many Octobers with 80 degree weather, not this year, I’ll take what ever is coming because their is not one thing we can do about it anyway! Bring on snow for Christmas!
We’ll I don’t know about everybody else but I miss mr bailey on the tube get back to work chris