Good Wednesday to one and all. Windy and chilly weather continues to rule the weather roost across central and eastern Kentucky. It has another day or so left in the tank before milder temps push in here for the weekend into early next week. That’s when our pattern begins to take on a much more active look as we get set to usher in November.
I’m even looking farther down the road toward winter with one of the newest seasonal model forecasts.
Temps today will range from the low and mid 50s across much of central and eastern parts of the state. The west is best with temps much milder.
Thursday starts cold with the potential for 30s and frost into much of the region. Again, clouds and winds will have to “chill out” for frost to form. Most areas already picked up their first frost a few weeks ago.
A weak system dives in from the northwest Thursday night into Friday. That will throw some clouds in here and I can’t rule out a scattered shower or two going up. Winds will be gusty as temps come up a few degrees with most areas seeing 60s for highs.
The weekend looks awesome to get out and check out the fall colors. Gusty winds will still be an issue, but these will be milder winds blowing. We may see a healthy temperature gradient setting up from east to west. Mid and upper 60s in the far east with near 80 in the far west?
A big cold front is on the way by Tuesday of next week…
That should spawn a line of gusty showers and thunderstorms as it races through here. That may take our temps from above normal to a bit below normal by the middle of next week…
From there, we will likely see some back and forth with the temperatures. That’s typical for this time of year as we slowly transition toward winter. Several models continue to hint at a potential winter looking system sometime in the first week of November…
That’s from the GFS and several runs of late have been going wild with cold air pouring into the country in early November. Check out these numbers from its last run…
The GFS Ensembles show a very potent storm system from two weeks out…
We shall see how that one plays out.
The new JAMSTEC model is out with the outlook for winter. Here are two important factors it’s picking up on…
It still shows the warm pool of water off the west coast into the Gulf of Alaska. It also shows a weak El Nino becoming central based. Those two are pretty good to see together if you’re a fan of winter weather around here. Sure enough, the actual December-February looks like this…A colder than normal winter with above normal precipitation could get interesting. That’s assuming the model is correct. 😉
Have a great day and take care.
The prayers are beginning for some fun and games around here this winter season…. Including the good ole Bowling Green.
Even though I’m not the biggest winter enthusiast, I have some nice memories as a WKU student sleighing down the front lawn of Van Meter 😉 . Only had a flattened cardboard box, but it worked pretty well.
Nearby Reservoir Hill is another popular – if somewhat treacherous – sleighing spot.
So I have seen four forecast for cold and dry and three for cold and wet. I like the JAMSTEC as it has been pretty accurate over the past couple years. Liking the look of the weekend weather.
It snowed 25 years ago today.I remember it like yesterday because my sister was 25 years ago today.
as a snow lover, im looking forward for a decent snowstorm or 2 this winter and snow for Christmas. so far it looks like we got a good chance. however im not looking forward to winter time temps in late march and april like last year 🙂
No thanks cold and snow. Had enough last year. Not in your viewing area Chris but we read your post every day. Thanks
BRING ON THE SNOW!
Often wonder if Pike County mesonet is accurate? Its 40 degrees in Pike County and in Letcher county one county over its 49 degrees. Regardless if its summer or winter Pike County’s mesonet always seems 7-10 degrees cooler than anyone else.
Here we go for tonight.
Frost Advisories out for pretty much all of NWS Nashville’s jurisdiction area, and for the higher elevations in east Tennessee covered by NWS Morristown TN.
still ready for a few more warm days before winter comes in, but this weather isn’t to bad yet, December is when I get hyped for snow!
Prelude,
Pike County’s station is at a rather high elevation: 2,700 ft + Temperatures drop about 3 degrees for every 1,000ft in elevation rise. You can see the elevation of Mesonet stations if you click on the “live data” tab, and then click on the station. In fine print it will show its relative GPS location and elevation.
-Kris
Also, there is a station on Black Mountain that is over 4,000ft in elevation. Unfortunately that Mesonet station has been down since Sept 26 though. It is very cool to watch the readings from that station!
Kris, thank you that makes sense.
Also didn’t realize the extensive cloud cover over eastern ky today. That definitely helped in keeping temps in check.