Good Wednesday to one and all. Windy and chilly weather continues to rule the weather roost across central and eastern Kentucky. It has another day or so left in the tank before milder temps push in here for the weekend into early next week. That’s when our pattern begins to take on a much more active look as we get set to usher in November.

I’m even looking farther down the road toward winter with one of the newest seasonal model forecasts.

Temps today will range from the low and mid 50s across much of central and eastern parts of the state. The west is best with temps much milder.

Thursday starts cold with the potential for 30s and frost into much of the region. Again, clouds and winds will have to “chill out” for frost to form. Most areas already picked up their first frost a few weeks ago.

A weak system dives in from the northwest Thursday night into Friday. That will throw some clouds in here and I can’t rule out a scattered shower or two going up. Winds will be gusty as temps come up a few degrees with most areas seeing 60s for highs.

The weekend looks awesome to get out and check out the fall colors. Gusty winds will still be an issue, but these will be milder winds blowing. We may see a healthy temperature gradient setting up from east to west. Mid and upper 60s in the far east with near 80 in the far west?

A big cold front is on the way by Tuesday of next week…

GFS 2

That should spawn a line of gusty showers and thunderstorms as it races through here. That may take our temps from above normal to a bit below normal by the middle of next week…

GFS 3

From there, we will likely see some back and forth with the temperatures. That’s typical for this time of year as we slowly transition toward winter. Several models continue to hint at a potential winter looking system sometime in the first week of November…

GFS

That’s from the GFS and several runs of late have been going wild with cold air pouring into the country in early November. Check out these numbers from its last run…

GFS 2 GFS 3 GFS 4

The GFS Ensembles show a very potent storm system from two weeks out…

GFS 5 We shall see how that one plays out.

The new JAMSTEC model is out with the outlook for winter. Here are two important factors it’s picking up on…

Japan Model

It still shows the warm pool of water off the west coast into the Gulf of Alaska. It also shows a weak El Nino becoming central based. Those two are pretty good to see together if you’re a fan of winter weather around here. Sure enough, the actual December-February looks like this…Japan Model 2A colder than normal winter with above normal precipitation could get interesting. That’s assuming the model is correct. 😉

Have a great day and take care.