Good Wednesday everyone. We have some interesting winter weather coming in over the next couple of days that, when combined, will provide most of the region with a decent sized winter storm. The combination of a moderate snowfall, gusty winds and arctic temps will make for a potentially dangerous stretch of weather for Thursday and Friday.
Here is how I see things playing out as of right now..
– A quick hitting 2″-4″ of snow will be possible with a fast moving arctic low. The snow will quickly move into the west tonight then overspread the rest of the state on Thursday. Locally higher amounts will be possible.
– An additional 1″-3″ with the backlash/northwesterly wind flow Thursday night and Friday. Much higher amounts of 4″+ will be likely across southeastern Kentucky during this time.
– Winds will be a HUGE player with this system and into Friday. Blowing and drifting snow is likely and will create near whiteout conditions at times.
– Wind chills may drop to 0 to -10 Thursday night and Friday.
– Sub 0 lows will be possible this weekend as arctic air settles in over a snowpack.
So as you can see… this upcoming storm will have two main periods of accumulating snows… Thursday and then again later Thursday night through Saturday morning. But the OVERALL setup from Thursday through Saturday is one that should be a pretty dynamic one.
I will have a first call on snowfall map out later today. Here is what the latest GFS is thinking…
More on this upcoming “storm” later today.
We continue to see some snow showers and flurries across the eastern part of the area and these will wind down later today. Here is your radar to track the last of the “today” flakes…
Check back later for the first call for snowfall map and an update on the nasty weather coming our way the next few days. Have a great Wednesday and take care.
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So it looks like it is actually going to happen…Thanks CB for the update!
my gut is telling me winter is just getting started!
what does yellow mean.
I believe the yellow means 3-4 inches. If I’m wrong, please someone correct me.
Here we go again folks! Hang onto to your hats for a windy, cold, swowy ride. I just hope we keep electricity and water during this storm.
Thanks for keeping us updated Chris!
Boyle County- 17* A good dusting of snow on Tuesday. Probably an inch total thus far for season adding up all the dustings.
http://stormtracker.yolasite.com/michaels-kentucky-snowcast.php
Looks like Southern KY gets scraps again at best . At least no ice storm this time.
Joseph I thought he said Southern Ky gets 4+ I am in Pikeville where are you?
This system sounds downright BRUTAL with snow blowing, and drifting, and with windchills possibly below zero. I love it!!!!!
Chris not being a jerk but you guys need to get some help in the mornings. You watched and showed a map with the watches across all of Kentucky and said very little about the potential storm. I don’t think even mentioned the watches in Kentucky on the screen. Other issues there as well but thats for another day.
Just looking ahead at the next weekends storm, according to the GFS there will be plenty of moisture, but we will be back to battleing the warm air again.
Just saw where western Ky. has gone from a watch to a warning.
Looking better and better.
Jackson is still mum on any type of advisory watch or warning
Half asleep with that post. Meant to say I just watched the morning coverage and the map appeared on screen with all the watches across Kentucky and the only mention was about those left in the WV mts. Very little even said about snow coming in and nothing that I heard at all about the watches already in place. Granted I might have been asleep and just missed it. Been a very long day. thanks for all you do CB
Careful RhondaB. When I look out my window and see it happening is when I’ll believe.
Clueless!
JACKSON NWS is useless, really guys it is ashame.
we here in these parts sare going to get anywhere from 3-8 inches.
once the lake effect/nw flow sets up the further east of say london the better chance u get at adding several more inches on.
morning song,
to hot to fish, to hot for golf and TOOO COLD AT HOME by MARK CHESNUTT.
They are not mum, just not in the hype business like some people. Read their special weather statement and discussion.
Here’s their discussion…
PRECIP FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY…POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS PREDAWN IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY…WITH HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS TO OUR N AND NW. COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY…ESPECIALLY ALOFT AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. STRATIFORM SNOW WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS AS THIS HAPPENS…WITH MOST PLACES
EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY
FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR…ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
ROUGHER TERRAIN AT THE VA BORDER AND WHERE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES
TRACE BACK TO LAKE MICHIGAN. EXACTLY WHERE THE LAKE BAND SETS UP IS
STILL UNCERTAIN.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW AMOUNTS MAKING IT TO WARNING
CRITERIA…ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR N AND ALONG THE VA BORDER.
HOWEVER…CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH AT THIS
POINT…AND WILL CONTINUE WITH AN SPS. SUSPECT THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO WILL BE FOR ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED IN A LATER FORECAST
PACKAGE.
No offense Rolo, but here in Somerset every source for weather has stated rooughly maybe 2 inches for us out of the main system. Also, we are too far west for any upslope effect type snow, therefore a disappointment to me if it pans out that way. Next week will feature the infamous WAA which means rain to leftovers at this point. Nothing here to really get excited about. I guess that’s the price of living here. However, for those of you who do actually receive SIGNIFICANT snowfall, enjoy it for those of us who won’t and be careful out there!
I wouldn’t say that the SDF office is hyping anything. I think they are following the criteria, which says:
Winter Storm Watch: Issued if there is a threat for heavy snow or sleet, significant accumulations of freezing rain or freezing drizzle, or any combination of these. Issued for the second and third periods of a forecast, i.e. 12 to 36 hours in advance of the event. Generally not issued for the fourth period of a forecast. The definition of heavy snow in Kentucky is 4″ or more in 12 hours, or 6″ or more in 24 hours.”
One of the key words there is “threat.” The threat is there. Apparently they have a different philosophy, but I side with Louisville and would rather a watch be issued to alert the public of the threat potential.
This stuff will be so “dry” and blowing that it will be hard to figure what is there. Some spots will have hardly nothing, while others will have “drifts” of six inches or more.
East KY from about the I75 line will see some wrap around. As cold and windy as it will be, it will be comical on the amounts of snow reported, since it will not be very reliable due to the winds effect to accumulation.
Somerset is west of London, right?
I think Rolo is talking total for the event, not just the first round. Notice that Chris says 2-4 inches for the first round with an additional 1-3.
Still not much posting in spite of the big event. Maybe all of the letdowns finally did snap a lot of people or are there network problems?
Snowdome shows no mercy to the weak;)
hey, just a note of caution that might help someone out there. Make sure you do not have a hose attached to your outdoor water spigots. I adverted a near crisis yesterday when it occurred to me that mine was still attached. Of course, it was frozen. I was able to get it thawed and believe I prevented damage.
True enough. That’s why accurate measurement should be done in multiple spots to get an idea of the average.
Someone, Bubba, Tim, WXman, anyone please help. I work in a dr.’s office in Corbin and we are trying to plan for tomorrow’s weather. The doctors are considering closing the clinic and wonder if Thursday or Friday would be the better day? Any thoughts and opinions are most appreciated.
There are some network issues- I had to refresh a couple of times to get the page to load.
Bubba- I think you should change your name to Snowdome. Me thinks you are one and the same. 🙂
I don’t understand Jackson’s stand on this. The GFS has consistently shown anywhere between 3-8 inches of snow for most of their forecast area while the NAM hasn’t shown much for anyone in the state. But from looking at both models, it appears QPF and 850 temps for the whole state is about the same from west to east. So why is Western and Central KY more prone to snow while Eastern KY not only has to deal with the storm itself, but with the lake enhancing snows thru Saturday where Western and Central KY do not. I’m not sure I’m following their thought process.
It might just be saying its time for breakfast, too.
It appears the brunt of the snows for around that area should occur more Thursday night thru Saturday.
NO SLEEP will catchup with ya! NO SLEEP is for the weak is what Chris always says!
The radar is impressive at the moment, let’s hope the 3-5 state precip (Canada to Missouri) slows down as it gets to the snowdome! 😉
Slow mover = 4-8″
Fast mover = 2-4″
Bubba’s backyard = 33 degree RAIN! lol
12z NAM is looking juicier for Central KY than any of the previous runs that I’ve seen. Maybe it’s finally starting to come around to the thinking of the GFS?
I wasn’t refering to Louisville.
Bottom line is models indicate a borderline advisory/warning criteria event. Jackson thinks more on the advisory criteria side of the fence. It’s a difference of forecaster opinion with points to back up the opinion. I hate it when people on here say an office or forecaster is clueless when they simply disagree with their position.
Personally, I agree with you. I think a Watch would have been the way to go for the reasons you stated, the “threat” is there.
I had same problem, blog wouldn’t load for the last hour or so. Almost panic withdrawal symptoms kicked in! lol
Sticking to my guns. This evetn should either overperform or underperform. Not much in between.
I feel like it is because eastern kentucky generally has more snow than any place in the state so when you are more familiar with snow it takes more to require advisories….parts of eastern kentucky got 3 inches night before last and all they had was a advisory after it had snowed an inch…lol….thats how I feel they are judging things…example: a dusting in louisiana requires an advisory because they don’t know how to deal with any ice or snow on the road
I personally feel like there shouldn’t be a watch or warning unless there is going to be more than 6 or 8 inches because all it does is hypes everyone up and causes worse problems that way
I have a feeling it is going to overperform this time.
morning gang.. I see were still in the wait and see ball park…still no adv. from JKL…
Winter Storm Warnings…West Ky.
Watch….central ky..
Winter weather adv.. for west,central Tn.
and with temps. soaring to LOW 30’s tomorrow on a stiff southerly breeze before the front blows through, will cut down on those HIGH SNOW RATIO’s until late when the temps. crash…
NWS… saying 1-2″ on Thursday for my area.. Thats not enough to issue any Winter Storm Watch/warning…so looks like the northern parts along the Ohio river will get the most snow out of this storm. then we’ll see how the upslope does later on friday for the east…blah,blah,blah…right now im just not all that impressed with extreme southern ky. getting all that much..
hmmm.. even the NWS in LMK last night on the point and click forecast for Lex. metro had snow w/ accum. of 4″ on thursday, I see this morning it says snow with accum. of around 2″ for thursday…:(
should know by around 10:30am or so what LMK is gonna do with their watch, my gut feeling is the northern part will go to a warning, and most of the rest of the watch area will go to a winter weather adv. or snow adv..
Don’t forget the grinch works there! 😉
Omaha, Nebraska NWS is forecasting 925MB winds and blizzard like conditions, thats a pretty potent system, forecasted to deepen as it heads east, we’ll see if that pans out.
Here is a clip:
WIND: COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH THRU AT PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED TIMES. LOOKS LIKE IT WL ENTER OUR NW COUNTIES ACROSS NERN
NEB ABOUT 15-17Z OR SO AND INTO THE I-80 CORRIDOR BY 20-22Z THEN
THRU ALL SW IA COUNTIES AND FAR SERN NEB BY 00Z. THIS INITIAL WIND
SHIFT WL NOT BRING THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS…BUT
EXPECT THESE WL COME AN HOUR OR TWO AFTERWARD WHEN DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM IS MAXIMIZED. BY 00-03Z…925 MB WINDS ACROSS THE CWA WL
BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KTS AND APPROACHING 40 KTS BY 06Z. 00Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 55 KTS AT 850MB ACROSS CNTRL NEB WHICH
SUGGEST SOME GUSTS 35+ KTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR WEST. EXPECT A
BIT MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES COMPARED TO
THE EAST DUE TO PROXIMITY OF 850 MB JET. STRONG GRADIENT WL
CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY RELAXING FM
WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT.
SNOW: MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO SPIT OUT A BLANKET TWO TENTHS AND USING
A 15:1 LSR SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 4-5″ TOTAL. WITH STRONGER AND
LONGER SUSTAINED FORCING ACROSS NERN CWA…COULD SEE SOME HIGHER
TOTALS FROM NERN NEB DOWN THRU SWRN IA…WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
TOWARD OUR SWRN COUNTIES. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WITH SNOWFALL LINGERING ACROSS WRN IA
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A SECONDARY LOBE THAT WL
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA FORCING
ACROSS FAR NERN NEB AND SW IA. WL BE A DIFFICULT EVENT TO GET GOOD
MEASUREMENTS WITH THE WIND BLOWING BOTH NEW AND OLD SNOW ALL OVER
THE PLACE.
CURRENT HEADLINES LOOK GOOD. THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CREATE BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
BUT THERE REMAIN TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DURATION OF
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEEDS TO
MEET BLIZZARD CRITERIA. THIS SAID…THE WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKS
LIKE BEST HEADLINE OF CHOICE WHICH IS CARRIED THRU THE DAY
THURSDAY.
no to warm, WARMER AIR MAKES IT JUICER TIM.
31-33 possible for high tome that only help the precip crank even more as that air hits the lfront as it moves in.
on other hand this as BUBBA said FOR A BIG EVENT not much talk, its not a BIG EVENT DAMNIT!!
3-6 generally of snow is nothing to go foolish about especially when most will be a dry powerder snow.
really calm down, the cold air and wind now ius the bigger issue.
Yellow means “do not eat.”
JKL pretty much saying 2″-3″ for its entire area with the first round of snow then another 1″-2″ with wrap around and upslope snow showers.
Rolo, for this west to east system, warm air is BAD news. Your view would work if southern fed system, but this is not. Picture a car driving from west to east getting T-boned by southern fed warm air. Result would be more north for the snow and big cutoff.
Where did the 30 degree temps come from?
I expect a colder event with drier blowing snow and the system will either over or underperform.
I’d say its about time to start watching radars more than models and discussions….the radar doesn’t lie unless its verga so….off to watch radars
lol
Ohh NO! Accuweather put most of Ky in 4-8″ range.. expect 1-3″ snow!
Sticking to my guns. It’s gonna snow!
http://i46.tinypic.com/351basy.jpg
Picked up about an inch or two of snow last night.
Spitting some really light flurries here in SW LEX, harrodsburg road/new circle area.
does anyone know exactly where Chris divides the lines on North, South, East West, Southeast, etc? I am in Laurel County and I have heard some people say this is South and some Southeast.
I dread the cold and blowing snow, but it will be beautiful! Reminds me of when I lived in Detroit a long time ago. 🙂
Well, the radar is showing nothing, but it has been snowing and snowing HARD here. The groundis covered, and now it has slacked, but is still snowing. Temp is at 16, and wind chill is at 6.
I guess JKL just doesn’t think what is coming warrants a WSW. In My humble opinion, with the blowing, drifting, and
sub zero temps, that would meet the criteria of a dangerous winter storm. But, I am not a meteorologist, just a spotter. So, I obviously do NOT understand these things, I guess.
I was wondering the same thing- where did the 30 degree temps come from. I’ve looked at all the forecasts- here, the three local channels, NWS, and the UK Ag Weather folks. The highest temp I see for tomorrow is 27… ??
I would think Southeast, but not sure what Chris says.
In simple Bubba terms, the snow totals needs the colder air for the snow ratios to be high. Warmer air will result in less of a ratio for this expected fast moving system.
I agree. It sounds like a dangerous winter storm. Maybe the folks at JKL are still sleeping?
We’ve had about five inches of snow here in the past few days. With the new snow storm coming with the colder temps and blowing snow, it’s going to be bad.
GFS
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
NAM
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
Nice picture Jared! Thanks for sharing! 🙂
From Belski’s Blog:
Conference call details from the NWS…..
Winter Storm Warning will be issued later this afternoon for areas north of Bowling Green.
Snow will start 4:00 AM or a little after.
Warning will expire at 7:00 PM Thursday.
Temperatures will stay in the lower and mid 20s during the snow.
Thanks Bernie!
Hahahaha.
well looks like you’ve got a good base, you will probably end up with 6+ in your area…YOU SNO-HOG…:)
I like the GFS much better!
coffeelady…your snow must be headed this way..its starting to snow big flakes here in knox co. now…
I see LMK is gonna upgrade to a WARNING for areas north of Bowling Green..southern ky…probably around 2 or 3 inches..but once east of I-75 those totals are always greater…so we wait…tic,toc,…tic,toc…
I wouldn’t go crazy with totals at this point it is just one rune but the 12z nam it looks like its trying to pull a fairly decent amount of gulf moisture up, in fact the 12z nam looked alot like a few of the gfs runs over the weekend that had a bigger snow over our area.
This was in my email
Issued by The National Weather Service
Jackson, KY
5:44 am EST, Wed., Jan. 6, 2010
… ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT…
SNOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY… AND THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY EVENING. TWO TO THREE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST AREA WIDE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE INITIAL ROUND OF SNOW… COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR ANOTHER INCH OR TWO ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY… WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. THE PUBLIC IS ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR FORECASTS FOR UPDATES AND POSSIBLE CHANGES.
This ystsem has a while to get here, so do not where yourselves out looking a t radar now;)
BTW, remember a similar event two years ago that we kept waiting for coming form the west and the METS blamed the miss on verga?
This system should not have that problem, but temps and mositure need to play nice for max ratios. Any temp above 30 degrees knock the ratios down to the point of underperforming.
One thing to watch out for is a northerly trend in the system and or warmer temps creeping in. Not long to find out. We should be okay and CB’s outlook should be good money.
Bubba what are your thoughts in eastern Ky? Do you think total of about 4″?
Me too MikeM!
yep see me WARM AIR COMMENT, means GULF MOISTURE JUST ENOUGH TO GET THINGS ROWDY IF io might say.
Bubba, new here, but have been an avid reader for a couple of months.
What are your thoughts on Louisville?
LOOK AT THIS BEAST! It will never happen but MAN!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_252m.gif
I dont know about that, that storm has been showing up on about every model run of the GFS for several days now, it just places it all over the place, so it may happen, BUT it may be rain as well..
Chris needs to update.
I will keep you guys posted either late tonight or early tomorrow morning as this storm blows in. At this point we have down graded from a WSW to a WWA. Forecast accumulations 2 inches for my county on the southern border. Stay tuned for more updates later tonight early tomorrow.
Don’t know if it means anything for us, but all of central SD has been upgraded to a Blizzard Warning. I don’t recall ever seeing as many Blizzard Warnings as we have seen thus far this winter (I was too young to remember the late 70’s winters…)
Boyle County- Flurries 26*
http://stormtracker.yolasite.com/michaels-kentucky-snowcast.php
Yeah, well atleast its good to see the southern jet active.. if we can keep this cold air around it good get real snowy around here come the next couple of weeks
? That would suggest the northerly trend I warned about earlier.
I noticed NWS in Jackson MISSISSIPPI has posted some WSWatches for thier area ice,snow acuum. up to 2″..
Temps in the 30’s is the kiss of death for snow totals. Not much time for transition then for a fast moving system.
We need to watch out for a trend where the southern areas get downgraded- that means a northerly shift of the snow. With a low moisture system, need the real cold air.
Bubba, what are we getting in good ole Madison County?
Theres going to be a lot of disappointed people. Yes it will snow but anything under 6 inches is pretty much a dud especially when it comes over a couple day period.
26 here at 11:30 am local time forecast high of 28 overnight low 9 and tomorrow high 24 during the storm. Bubba looks like my snow ratios are adjusted for the warmer air cause I see my area at a .2-.3 QPF with a call for 2 inches of snow tonight and tommorrow combined.
hmmmm…from LMK..
…PREPARING FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW THURSDAY…
FOCUS CONTINUES ON WELL-ADVERTISED SNOW EVENT COMING UP ON THURSDAY.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AREA WILL SEE…BUT
POSSIBILITY OF WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET AT A HIGH IMPACT TIME
STILL THERE. CURRENT WATCH WILL BE KEPT IN PLACE
Appreciated!
The issue is that such an change would impact the entire state and not just your area. The adjustment would need to be made north as well.
This would imply a more northerly trend and an underperforming event for snow.
CB should clear things up for us.
12 GFS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_036m.gif
12z NAM
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_sl8_036m.gif
I guess we’ll see how this pans out.
I will wait till early this evening to get a good idea of when my far south western county will start getting snow and will adjust my sleeping around it, so I may update 2-3 hour totals so you guys may know whats coming.
If the west to east trend stays the course and the warmer air does not creep up from the south, CB’s outlook is money.
East KY 3″ to 6″
Louisville 3″ to 6″
This is through Saturday. The thing that bugs me is the sudden mention of 30 degree temps in southern KY. This is a sign of a more northerly trend- IF correct.
The whole premise of the system is 20’s when the moisture passes. Let us see if CB changes his outlook for snow totals.
Based on CB’s note above, his range is 3″ to 7″ at the moment for most of KY.
I still thing that this system will either under or overperform. The reason is the dynamics for the event are tight. Not much wiggle room.
You remind me of Debbie Downer on Saturday Night Live LOL! No matter how good it is, it’s just not enough. :0
If the west to east trend stays the course and the warmer air does not creep up from the south, CB’s outlook is money.
East KY 3″ to 6″
Louisville 3″ to 6″
This is through Saturday. The thing that bugs me is the sudden mention of 30 degree temps in southern KY. This is a sign of a more northerly trend- IF correct.
The whole premise of the system is 20’s when the moisture passes. Let us see if CB changes his outlook for snow totals.
Based on CB’s note above, his range is 3″ to 7″ at the moment for most of KY.
I still think that this system will either under or overperform. The reason is the dynamics for the event are tight. Not much wiggle room.
Will Fayette Co schools be out tomorrow, or will they go on to school and possibly have to leave early? What do you think?
Any amount of snow beats 33 COLD RAIN and/or ICE! I’ll be satisfied at 2-4″ compared to the norm.
CB is saying above, 3″ to 7″ for most of KY.
Porblem is the conflict of warnings vs advisories. Some outlooks suggest more northerly emphasis, but CB suggest a more direct, west to east event.
There is waaaay too much contradiction in the outlooks for it being this close. CB’s outlook if money- IF a more northerly trend does not take place due to warm air creeping up from the south.
Key reason why I think this system will either over or underperform.
I think it depends on timing. I can see them looking west toward Louisville, and if Louisville is experiencing the blowing snow that is a concern, calling off tomorrow. They would be rightfully concerned about having school buses out trying to get kids home in near whiteout conditions.
gulf moisture. 😉
Should have been “is”, not “if”
CB’s outlook IS money- IF a more northerly trend does not take place
How does that read..as far as amounts?
Another contradiction, since suggests a northerly trend and not a more west to east event.
Why so much contradiction THIS close to the event?
What is in store for Northeastern KY?
we have been talking about that all day (i am a teacher in Fayette co) The mayor came on noon news warning all of the conditions tomorrow; so i am hoping the political impact may sway a calling off. (haa haa) Seriously, the snow, according to one weather chart i have looked at starts tonite around 9-10 pm. I think we have a better chance of a full snow day, the earlier the system rolls in. Some of my students think the “scare tactic” will be in play…meaning…they will call off school even if its not snowing hard, just because of the hype. (in my 10 year tenure, that has only happened twice) I HOPE THEY CALL IT!!! PLEEEEEEEAAAAASE 🙂
What does it mean when you guys talk about a ratio?
Amount of available liquid precipitation converting to snow. Forecasts had been saying cause of the cold air in place we will get a light fluffy snow where 1 inch of precipitation could mean 15:1 or 20:1 ratios. So at 15:1 is 15 inches of snow 20:1 is 20 inches of snow. The typical average is a 10:1 ratio which 1 inch of precipitation is 10 inches of snow. Typically we have wet snow which is 10:1 or less ratios and means less accumulation.
The ration refers to snow depth to liquid equivalent. Think of liquid equivalent is the amount of rain we have when it falls as all rain.
So, for example, if the ratio is 10 to 1, one inch of moisture amounts to ten inches of snow. 15 to 1 would be 15 inches of snow, etc.
well its 18 degrees in gunchester so we not reach into the mid 20s today.
LOL! Guess I am just tired of having to use a magnifying glass to see the snow outside my window. A little snow and a lot of cold is more miserable to me than cold and a foot of snow. Think I am getting cabin fever.
That being said- if you are a student- do your homework. And assume you will have that test tomorrow. 🙂
Here in Berea, it’s been flurrying for most of the day and temp is now at 24.6° ..have a spotty dusting.
comment went into moderation so I will try again. If you are a student, make sure you do your homework and plan on having that test tomorrow. 🙂
Um, yeah. I know you weren’t referring to Louisville. You both were referring to Jackson, and I was pointing out the different approach of the two offices, saying I agree with Louisville’s approach.
Flurries in Frankfort – a little heavier right now. Don’t know the temp but it feels cold! LOL
decent snow my friend, 5 plus id say.
We have been so disappointed in Carter County this year so far. I so hope that we are not once again. It snows all around us but we get nothing. 🙁
Is it a contradiction, or is it a matter of timing? If you look at the warning text, it is for the time of midnight to 6 AM.
And, I might be wrong, but I think the warning area is out the Paducah office, not Louisville.
I think Chris should have a LIVE BLOG tonight so we can sort out questions such as this! :-0
Light snow
20*
Barbourville,knox co.
still got a dusting from the past few days, if the cloudcover will hold TIGHT, then at least I’ll have a head start on that 2-3″ for tomorrow…:)
My 2 cents.. you are in a sweet spot for this event!
NO SCHOOL THURSDAY FOR: KNOX, LAUREL COUNTIES!
3″ to 6″. Issue of concern is if warm air T bones the west to east system. More north and bad snow news if this happens. Too much outlook conflict this close in.
Tim, looks like we’re gonna have kiddos home yet another day. Laurel and Knox both called off for tomorrow! Gone crazy yet? 😉
19* here in Pulaski Co. with flurries. High today was suppose to be upper 20s or low 30s. Don’t think we’ll make that. Hopefully that will keep temps in mid 20s when the snow starts tomorrow to give us better ratios!!!
has the snow storm changed direction? Paintsville radio station gave just an inch for us tomorrow.
Here is what I cannot make sense of:
Here in LEX its cloudy and 21 degrees. It has been spitting snow off and on. 250 miles NORTH (ex, MANSFIELD, OH) there is FREEZING RAIN and DRIZZLE and a WW Adv through this afternoon. How can it be that much warmer that far to the NORTH to cause frz rn and still be so much cooler here? They are the ones fighting the WAA it sounds like. Just thought that was interesting…
out by noon if not a snow day.
I meant I was not referring to Louisville when I said “just not in the hype business like some people.” By that I meant some members of the media, who love watches and warnings because it brings in flocks of more viewers and results in higher ratings for their newscasts. The NWS thankfully is not in the ratings business.
Thursday: Snow, mainly after 9am. High near 32. Calm wind becoming south southwest between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
that is from Jackson NWS for Knox County
yeah, on my way back from there…LOL..
Please no school in Whitley County tomorrow! Keeping my fingers crossed. Does anyone know what we are to expect down here in Whitley and Laurel tomorrow? Not much or will it be enough for the kiddos to get out and play in? Thanks everyone and thanks Chris for all you do.
chris says wind whipped snow coming in tonight, snowfall map coming alittle later on…on Twitter update..
there be no school all next week either u stay at homes dad/moms so get ready.
i think its ur pal WARREN G blowing hot air up there NATE DOG.lol just had to throw that out when I saw ur name NATE DOG.
clouds are eroding away from southwest to north east..breaking out into partly cloudy here in knox co..so I guess that’ll take care of the DUSTING on the ground right now..I was hoping to keep cloud cover so we could hold onto what little bit we got…doesnt look likely though…oh well..we’ll see.
LOL! I READ THIS BLOG ALL THE TIME, BUT DON’T POST OFTEN, BUT ROLO, YOUR COMMENTS ARE ALMOST ALWAYS FUNNY!
Per the afternoon discussion from Jackson NWS, a Winter weather advisory will be issued shortly for the entire region. They’re calling for a general 2-4″ snowfall with higher amounts (3-7″ total) in the higher elevations.
…..REPORTS…..
Police have stopped responding to vehicle accidents in Omaha as they have gotten so far behind due to the storm
If that ends up being the case, I’m ready!
Nice to see you still seem positive about our snow chances, Rolo! 😉
Does anyone know how much snow eastern Pike Co. is supposed to get? We already have 7inches of snow on the ground from this past weekend, Monday, and Tuesday. We are supposed to travel to Louisville Saturday, but with snow already on the ground and the upcoming snow, we don’t know if we can get out of the hollows and rural roads of Pike Co.
Does anyone know how much snow eastern Pike Co. is supposed to get? We already have 7inches of snow on the ground from this past weekend, Monday, and Tuesday. We are supposed to travel to Louisville Saturday, but with snow already on the ground and the upcoming snow, we don’t know if we can get out of the hollows and rural roads of Pike Co.
Does anyone know how much snow eastern Pike Co. is supposed to get? We already have 7inches of snow on the ground from this past weekend, Monday, and Tuesday. We are supposed to travel to Louisville Saturday, but with snow already on the ground and the upcoming snow, we don’t know if we can get out of the hollows and rural roads of Pike Co.
Does anyone know how much snow eastern Pike Co. is supposed to get? We already have 7inches of snow on the ground from this past weekend, Monday, and Tuesday. We are supposed to travel to Louisville Saturday, but with snow already on the ground and the upcoming snow, we don’t know if we can get out of the hollows and rural roads of Pike Co.
Does anyone know how much snow eastern Pike Co. is supposed to get? We already have 7inches of snow on the ground from this past weekend, Monday, and Tuesday. We are supposed to travel to Louisville Saturday, but with snow already on the ground and the upcoming snow, we don’t know if we can get out of the hollows and rural roads of Pike Co.
jkl going with an advisory.
interesting multimedia weather briefing from NWS Louisville office. I haven’t seen these before.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lmk/06Jan2010/06Jan2010_controller.swf
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
245 PM EST WED JAN 6 2010
.SHORT TERM…/TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/…UPDATED
JUST A QUICK UPDATE ON THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
RATHER CONSISTENT MOVING PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
THE AREA BY MIDDAY THU…FIRST IN THE WEST CLOSER TO DAWN AND LAST IN
THE SE. MODELS INCREASE PW TO AROUND 0.30″ AND SOME DECENT OMEGA AS
WELL. SNOWRATIOS WITH THIS INITIAL MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 20:1 AND 25:1. WITH QPF GENERALLY 0.10 TO 0.15 ANTICIPATED WE
FEEL THAT TOTALS FROM THE CLIPPER SYSTEM DEPARTING ON THU
EVENING…WITH SOMEWHAT OF A LULL FOLLOWED BY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE BY 12Z (8 AM) FRIDAY. UP TO 2
INCHES COULD FALL FROM SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MORE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
LOCATIONS. WE WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS
SYSTEM STARTING AT 11Z IN THE FAR WEST AND THEN A FEW HOURS LATER IN
THE EAST. THE BEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH
THE SNOW SHOWER PART OF THE EVENT…SO WE HAVE THE ADVISORY ENDING ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SW AND THEN FRIDAY EVENING IN THE
NW…FOLLOWED BY 4 AM ON SATURDAY MORNING IN THE EAST. ALTHOUGH EVENT
TOTALS OF ABOUT 3 TO 7 INCHES COULD FALL…WITH LOCALLY MORE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOST TOPOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS THROUGH THE ADVISORY
PERIOD…ATTM…WE DO NOT EXPECT SNOWFALL TO EXCEED 4 INCHES IN ANY
12 HOUR PERIOD WITH ANY KIND OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. THIS SNOWFALL
WILL BE RATHER FLUFFY. HOWEVER…THERE WILL BE A AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF IMPACT TO TRAVEL…HENCE THE LONG DURATION. THE WSW WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.
……………….
O.K..they just said the were gonna issue a ww adv… so whats up with that last sentence…WSW ISSUED SHORTLY.??? im confused, but that could be the fact I’ve had 5 kids home from school since dec. 18th.!!!….:)
How do you reply back to someone? The posts are in blue then some are in white that looks like someone has replied to the post.
Hi Momma… At the end of each post is a “Reply to this” link. Just click that, fill out your post like normal, and viola!
Glad I’m not the only one who noticed that last line there. Just a typo, I’m sure…
YEP..rolo adds the necessary pizzazz to the blog…and speaking of, rolo…get that tenderloin fryin up man, were gonna need it come tomorrow, with a big ole piece of cornbread,soupbeans and fried taters..GIT R DONE !!!
MOmma…good to have a new poster amongst us, just jump right in and enjoy the fun!!! 🙂
NWS LOUISVILLE HAS A VIDEO OUTLINING SNOWFALL PREDICTIONS FOR TOMORROW:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lmk/06Jan2010/06Jan2010_controller.swf
SIGN ME UP FOR THAT!
Morristown pulled the trigger as well…now the ENTIRE STATE OF TN. is under a winter weather advisory..and east Va. as well, with the higher elev. under a WSWARNING…check out the adv. map over half of the Middle of the country under some sort of adv. or warning…impressive…
http://www.weather.gov/
I’m ready. 🙂
THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME MESOSCALE BANDING
OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA/NORTHWEST KENTUCKY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD…SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST…
WooHoo!!!! That’s what I was kind of hoping for here.
It looks like WSW is used to refer to general winter weather products (Im not sure what it is supposed to be short for)…
from NWS Louisville page:
Winter weather events are disseminated via the WSW WWUS43 KLMK weather product. A WSW is used to…
* Issue the initial watch, warning, or advisory,
* Change the type of product,
* Add or delete affected areas,
* Extend the cancellation time of the event,
* Update information pertaining to the watch, warning, or advisory, or
* Terminate the watch, warning, or advisory.
I wonder whY lou. hasnt upgraded to warning or adv. yet…?? I still think that the northern part goes under a warning and the southern part goes to an adv…
Momma, underneath a post where you see “Reply to this”, click on that, and you will be able to respond to that particular post if you want to. (It took me a couple min’s to figger that one out when I first blogged here, too.LOL!)
KYZ087-088-104-106>110-112-113-115-117>120-070900-
/O.NEW.KJKL.WW.Y.0002.100107T1400Z-100109T1000Z/
BELL-HARLAN-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-BREATHITT-
KNOTT-PERRY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…MIDDLESBORO…PINEVILLE…HARLAN…
SANDY HOOK…WEST LIBERTY…PAINTSVILLE…CAMPTON…
SALYERSVILLE…PRESTONSBURG…JACKSON…HINDMAN…HAZARD…
HYDEN…WHITESBURG…INEZ…PIKEVILLE
314 PM EST WED JAN 6 2010
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM
EST SATURDAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW….WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THURSDAY
TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY.
* SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
* 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH AROUND ONE INCH
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY NIGHT. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY…AND UP TO TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING EVENT TOTAL SNOWFALL TO 3 TO 8 INCHES BY THE PRE DAWN HOURS
OF SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
* HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED…ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY
AND UNTREATED ROADWAYS.
Maybe they are waiting for Chris’s update? Or for the next shift to come in and deal with it? 🙂
thanks for that info…but it is rather confusing. it makes u think by the wording that a winter storm warning is gonna be issued…Oh well thats what happens when your just a dumb ole hillbily as myself…:)…just learning everyday something new…
well it looks like i will not have to replace a $400 water heater after all just a pipe
1-3…thurs
1″ …thurs.night
1-2….friday
2……friday night
8″ totals not out of the question!!!!..nice…nice…nice…
Thank Y’all for the welcome and the blogging lesson, but honestly unless I am more blind than I thought there wasn’t a reply link – ok maybe there was and I’m just getting snow blind early, hehe.
Looks like were gonna be the last to be put under any kind of watch/warning here in Flatwoods/Greenup Co. Maybe were not gonna get anything here…..
Good ol’ Charleston for ya!
Thank you!
Thats so kind Thomas Thank you.
What a day! Got a job and snow on the way, cannot beat this kind of news, been laid off over a year. Alright guys south western KY here gonna give updates this evening and tomorrow morning as snow approaches, would not be surprised if we get 0 to 3 inches at this point.
here you go…
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
334 PM EST WED JAN 6 2010
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)…
WILL DROP WATCH AND GO WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN
INDIANA…NORTH CENTRAL KY AND EAST CENTRAL KY. WILL GO TO AN
ADVISORY ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL KY.
Tim, I went to JKL page and they have placed us under WWA here in PUlaski County. Looking for a POSSIBLE total of about 5-6 inches overall, according to what I saw and read.
Andy, glad it’s just a pipe! Been there, done that, when pipes in frozen ground burst….NO fun! Keeping the faith. I think it is gonna snow. Bubba, I have to think overachiever, since we never get anything down here, either….;). (That way, we get 3, it’s more than I was expecting.) 🙂
Thomas, CONGRATS on the job! I am happy for you! Now, if the weather will just cooperate, and give us ALL some snow love…..
So Kroger was even more nuts today! Everyone is panicking over this snow!
Still waiting for an upgrade to a warning over central kentucky before the day is over…
its coming for all except south central ky, which will be under advisory
Congrats, Thomas!! That is wonderful news!! 😀
so what does this mean for eastern kentucky?
Thanks Rolo
Was just wondering, the local forcast was suppose to be for sunny skies. It has been cloudy here in Lexington all day with light off and on snow showers and flurries. Temp is 22 at my place.
ok here me snowfall thru sat,
this for my area 1-75 east, 6-10 inches maybe more if we get some enhancement at times.
10 bieng towards harlan and the uisual heavier up slope areas.
Thanks guys! 🙂 Been going back to college for over a year now at 30. So, 2010 looks to start off with a bang! Hard to keep upbeat when your at the house so much, but did enjoy more time with the kids. I just hope for enough snow to keep kids out Thursday and Friday here to celebrate all our great news and if it is 1 inch or 2 inches, thats fine by me.
here another thing until the precip get here and hit the mountains that dont know how much is going to fall, it could blow up!!!
well it didn’t freeze and bust its a copper flex pipe that goes from the top of the water heater to the supply line thats whats so odd about it busting but i’m ready to celebrate
Checking radars and the leading edge of the storm is 6 counties to my west now, but with override of dry air, may be midnight to a couple hours later before it gets here.
Thomas that is great now I hope you and your family get their snow.
Congratulations Thomas!
I really think that parts of the JKL..area should be under a WINTER STORM WARNING AS WELL…esp. northern counties adjacent to the warning areas out of LMK… and the eastern most counties as well…but oh well I dont get paid to make these calls, I guess we’ll see how it works out.
WINTER STORM WARNING NOW OUT FOR CENTRAL KY!
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
410 PM EST WED JAN 6 2010
…FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOW OF THE SEASON EXPECTED FROM EARLY
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON…
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-070900-
/O.UPG.KLMK.WS.A.0001.100107T0900Z-100107T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KLMK.WS.W.0001.100107T0900Z-100108T0000Z/
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…PAOLI…SALEM…SCOTTSBURG…MADISON…
JASPER…MARENGO…TELL CITY…CORYDON…NEW ALBANY…
JEFFERSONVILLE…HAWESVILLE…HARDINSBURG…BRANDENBURG…
BEAVER DAM…LEITCHFIELD…ELIZABETHTOWN…FORT KNOX…
MOUNT WASHINGTON…SHEPHERDSVILLE…LOUISVILLE…LA GRANGE…
BEDFORD…NEW CASTLE…SHELBYVILLE…FRANKFORT…GEORGETOWN…
CYNTHIANA…TAYLORSVILLE…LAWRENCEBURG…VERSAILLES…
LEXINGTON…PARIS…CARLISLE…BARDSTOWN…SPRINGFIELD…
HARRODSBURG…NICHOLASVILLE…WINCHESTER…HODGENVILLE…
LEBANON…DANVILLE…LANCASTER…RICHMOND
410 PM EST WED JAN 6 2010 /310 PM CST WED JAN 6 2010/
…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO
7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THURSDAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM
EST /3 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
A POTENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
* TIMING…SNOW WILL LIKELY BEGIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
THURSDAY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND OVERSPREAD THE BLUEGRASS
REGION SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. SNOW WILL END OR TAPER OFF TO
FLURRIES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA.
* MAIN IMPACT: TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY
ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING…THIS SNOW WILL READILY STICK.
EXPECT DETERIORATING ROAD CONDITIONS AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL
THURSDAY MORNING.
* OTHER IMPACTS: VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE BY EARLY
EVENING THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15 MPH WILL BRING
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THAT MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. WIND
CHILL READINGS WILL LIKELY FALL TO BETWEEN 0 AND 10 ABOVE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
winter storm warning and
winter weather advisory now issued by Louisville. see map here
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/
Well Jim Caldwell just said on Wymt east ky could see 4-6 and right on the Pikeville line i am the fence on the fence here in Pikevillle lol from Pikeville points south 6-10 esp higher elevation
JKL…snowfall map totals…
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=jkl&storyid=45966&source=0
Tim why isnt east Ky under a winter storm warning?
CHRIS HAS A NEW POST UP GUYS!!!!!!!!
for some reason, the blog will only let me post once a day, so I’m gonna make this one count. Here in Craney holler, SE Rowan county, it has been snowing for 5 days. we have had anywhere from 2-5 inches now and then. the roads have been awful, rarely treated and plowed. there is no advisory, watch or nothing for my area. but in Mt Sterling, 10 minutes and 15 miles away, they have a watch, and our forecasts are almost word for word. I am preparing for a storm, wood, food, water, candles, etc. I am p****d off, it’s like we are being ignored. I am so relieved I have this blog and all you wonderful people to watch this weather coming and keep me informed. Thank-you so very much. Be safe everyone, stay warm.
Crystal, here is the answer to that one I think, from the Jackson discussion earlier:
“ALTHOUGH EVENT
TOTALS OF ABOUT 3 TO 7 INCHES COULD FALL…WITH LOCALLY MORE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOST TOPOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS THROUGH THE ADVISORY
PERIOD…ATTM…WE DO NOT EXPECT SNOWFALL TO EXCEED 4 INCHES IN ANY
12 HOUR PERIOD WITH ANY KIND OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE”
That’s the key- criteria for a warning is 4″ or more in 12 hours, or 6″ or more in 24 hours. So they don’t think the timing and totals will meet criteria- there might be more than 4 or 6 in total, but not in the time period of 12 or 24 hours.
I’m headed to rolo’s…I can’t make cornbread to go w/ my soupbeans (btw, Tim…that’s what we call ’em too..hoity-toity’s here in Bardstown call it “Bean Soup”…or in the case of my Yank hubby…”Cornbeans & Bread”…snort-snort!;)(love him anyway…) My dryer blew a heating element (do I pay $80 for the core, or do I buy a new dryer…I have a good neighbor, tho, that let’s us use his..), and last week, while toasting burger buns, my broiler/baking elements fried(complete with sparks & lotsa smoke and the FD & EMT’s
…well, at least the alarm system isn’t shot…:))
All my appliances were bought in ’96…and the fridge is making one helluva racket…am I the only soul here that is hoping for sub-zero temps until I win the lottery??!;)
GEEZ.
Local news has bumped us into the 2-3 range and areas south at 1-2, so at least some poitive feedback the closer this event gets. More snow for me equals more snow for south central KY. Fingers crossed!
Do any of you know just how FAST that snow to our NW is travelling??! LMK and various local met’s were saying it wouldn’t reach the Western portions of the FA until around daybreak/sunrise, but that radar return looks like that bugger is hot-footin’ it across IL at a pretty good clip??!:)
I predicted on another blog and on FB that it would be nearing the I-65 corridor around midnight/little after…