Good Saturday evening, gang. I wasn’t planning to update until I got a look at the late day model runs for later this month.

I’ve been pointing toward Christmas week as our transition week into a harsh winter pattern. That transition looks to be the coming week instead with Christmas week into New Year’s week taking on more of the harsh look.

The GFS Ensembles for Christmas week…

GFS 2

The control run of the Ensembles has a brutal look to it…

GFS 3

Notice the tremendous amount of blocking along the west coast and across northern Canada. That’s the look some of the historic winter’s from the past have given us. Now, I’m not saying this is a historic winter… but that’s pretty awesome to see if you like cold and snow.

The GFS actually matches what the Ensembles show in the extended period (doesn’t mean it’s right). Check out the lows a few days after Christmas…

GFS 4

Interesting times ahead!

I will have a full update later tonight. Make it a good one and take care.