Good Monday, folks. We’ve made it into the midway point of December and it’s time to shake things up in a big way. The first part of the month was talked about as a reloading period coming off a record cold November. The past few weeks missed a chance to give us some mild weather and now winter is planning a big return for the second half of the month… just in time for Christmas.

Today looks to be another dreary day in the bluegrass state with temps ranging from the mid 40s to around 50. Rain will increase quickly from west to east late today as a cold front sweeps in. We may even hear some thunder out of this.

Current temperatures

The showers will continue into Tuesday with very gusty winds and falling temperatures. This action may end as some snowflakes Tuesday night and Wednesday with highs in the 30s.

I’ve been talking about the possibility of a sneaky snow system showing up Wednesday night and Thursday and the models are trying to hone in on this. I think the best chance for some light snow will be across western and southern parts of the state. Whatever is out there may dry up the farther north and east it tries to get.

That brings us to the end of the week and weekend potential winter storm. A check of the models will find the Canadian with a low pressure along the Gulf coast and moving eastward with no impact on our weather. The GFS has some wacked out solution of a weak low pressure working all the way into Ohio. The poor model doesn’t even come close to matching what it’s very own Ensembles show…

GFS

That’s  Friday night through Saturday and is a good winter storm track for much of the bluegrass state. That’s very similar to what the European Model has been suggesting for the past several days. That model continues to show this storm having a significant impact on the weather around here. Here’s where the latest European Model shows the best chance for snow and frozen stuff…

Euro

That zone bounces around from run to run based on whatever track of the low it shows at any given time.

I have to put out the standard disclaimer with this: I am not telling you we are getting a winter storm this weekend… but I’m not telling you we aren’t, either. What I am saying is there is the POTENTIAL for a decent sized impact across parts of our region during this time frame.

The models will continue to spit out varying solutions for a couple more days before settling on some kind of solution. It’s always important to never get caught up in one model run. Look for trends, instead.

There continues to be a strong signal showing up for another potential winter storm around Christmas. The various Ensembles have been all over this for the past week and now the medium range models are sniffing something out. Even the GFS (which actually can be of some use at this range) is showing my concern. Check this big dip in the jet stream…

GFS 3

That could produce a major storm for the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes…

GFS 2

To see that kind of signal on the GFS from this range should be enough to get some folks attention. Why do I say that when I can’t stand the model? Because it matches the pattern with that storm and matches up with the Ensembles.

Another system would try to follow that up a few days later as arctic air starts to take hold.

I will have updates later today. Have a good one and take care.