Good Tuesday to one and all. Winter weather is heading back into Kentucky in the coming days as we slip into what may become a rather wild pattern over the next couple of weeks. If you like snow and cold, you should really be licking your chops with this kind of setup.
Let’s get this party started by talking about what’s going on today. Temps will start the day in the upper 40s and low 50s then drop toward the low 40s from west to east this afternoon. A few gusty showers will also be noted as a cold front swings through the region.
Current temperatures
Colder air continues to filter in right on through Wednesday with highs only in the 30s. A stray snow flurry will also be possible.
This brings us into a pattern featuring a couple of potential snow makers from later this week into the weekend. I’m seeing a couple of trends emerging: 1. The Thursday system is showing up a little stronger. 2. The weekend system is showing up a little weaker.
Let’s start with the Thursday system as it’s piquing my interest a little more the closer we get. The European Model is now spitting out more of a widespread light snow and flurry maker for much of the state…
It continues to show the greatest potential across the west and south, but the whole setup is showing up a little stronger. If this trend continues, we might have to talk about the possibility of sticking snows for some. The new version of the GFS is even picking up on this much better than earlier runs…
It doesn’t show this to the extent of the European, but this model basically had nothing coming from prior runs.
As far as the weekend winter storm potential goes… I suspect what happens with that storm will be impacted by the Thursday system. It’s no coincidence we are seeing the models trending a little stronger for Thursday and a touch weaker for Saturday. That’s because we’re getting a little more energy sneaking out instead of hanging back and bundling into one strong storm. Of course… that’s the latest flavor of the models and that may all change with ensuing runs.
It’s not like the European Model isn’t still showing a decent system Friday night into Saturday…
That’s actually indicating a pretty good hit of winter weather across much of Kentucky.
Model variations are common and that’s what we will continue to see for another few days. It may not be until later Wednesday or Thursday before things really clear up.
Moral of the weather story… This is a setup that really bears watching as it could deliver a nice hit of winter over a busy travel weekend.
Christmas week will see another MAJOR buckle in the jet stream and that should provide this region and much of the eastern half of the country with a big blast of winter. The models continue to key on a possible system Christmas Eve and Day with the new version of the GFS going hog wild…
That is, obviously, on the extreme end of the spectrum, but the pattern is ripe for something to crank up around the time Santa arrives.
I will have more updates later today. Have a good one and take care.
This looks good for Christmas. I live in Estill county and we usually don’t get much snow .I hope we get it this Christmas. Thanks for the updates Chris.
the mountains in our county gets snow, just not the rest of us.
A white Christmas would be the best present we could get this year! Growing up with family living in Idaho, I spent most of my childhood Christmas’ in the mountains of Idaho. Not sure there was ever a Christmas with less than 2-3 feet of snow on the ground. But heck, I’d be happy with a few inches come Christmas morning given the lack of snow over the lasr several Christmas mornings.
This post for me is letting me down softly for not v er ry much snow for this weekend.
And what has changed? 😉
1. Models look good
2. Models waffle
3. Models back off
That is the usual progression and is why I say No to Lucy’s football. CB posts a snow map the day before the event and then I buy in. Even then I take 50% off the map for Richmond for the Kentucky river factor 😉
Just got a good laugh from a Facebook post from someone/place across town. Jealous much? Smh
I am with Bengfan, but in song mode and Killing Me Softly. Should have know not to get to excited over early runs of the one model. What was looking like a really nice snow for the River counties is now going to a little to nothing in some cases. Hope some of you in the South can get in on the white stuff. Thanks CB for the update.
A weaker system wont pull down enough cold air for snow. So if this system is weak, then rain will occur, not snow. Also, the Christmas snow wont happen either. Maybe a day or 2 afterwards, but not Christmas. We `ll see. I hope I`m wrong.
I’m for waiting till we get a bit closer to this system’s arrival.
Whichever, I do like our chances for some good snow in the next couple of weeks.
Nice morning here in carrie of knott co. Sunny blue skies and 50s
Killing me Softly ( gotta love Roberta Flack ) should be the song of the day. Maybe Chris can post it for us. Central Kentucky weather is what it is, unpredictable. Painfully so.
But that is perhaps the point: It IS predictable in that models for snow tend to grossly overstate snow and very rarely understate.
That seems pretty darn predictable to me.
Kentucky is the Meh, for modeling.
in for some reason it is predictable that we continue look at this site and hope someday big snow comes a callin
Just as I suspected. The weekend system gets weaker with each model run until about Thursday night when it disappears to nothing or at least a 34 degree rain maker.
Today sure looks the part. I love these gray and moody days. As for the warm temps and no snow. It is all relative at some point, since it is going to do what it is going to do. That being said, maybe we’ll get lucky this weekend.
No snow this winter, folks. If a system does come through it’ll be rain or a mix at best.
While yesterdays models looked great, we all knew things would change so why the disappointment folks? The models will flip back and forth several more times as they always do…..maybe, just maybe things pan out but I’m just craving sunshine like we had yesterday….it was so nice for a change. I don’t even hope or wish for snow anymore so I don’t get let down.