Good Wednesday, gang. Christmas is fast approaching and the requests for snow are coming fast and furious. There are years we pretty much know there is little to no chance of snow for this festive time. This year is not one of those years. Snow chances are lining up through Christmas week and beyond.
Christmastime snow lovers have to be excited at the possibility…
We have a few flakes flying around early today as clouds hang tough. High temps will be mainly in the 30s with gusty winds making it feel like the 20s out there.
We are likely to see a swath of light snow and flurries streaking eastward across Kentucky on Thursday. This may put down some light accumulations across the western parts of the state. Even with a diminishing snow trend, It does look like flakes could fly all the way into eastern Kentucky. You can see what I’m talking about on the European snowfall map…
I will have more on this with an update later today.
The next system rolling in for Friday night and Saturday continues to look about the same as it did with my last updates. The operational models continue to show this as a weaker storm rolling across the deep south. This storm is just getting to the tail end of the NAM range. Here’s what the NAM is showing for Saturday morning…
That has a nice shield of snow working across southern and western parts of the state. That would likely then work to the northeast during the day. That does match up well with the new snow/frozen precip map from the European Model…
I want to get within 48 hours of this system to see what the models look like. Why? Look no further than the flakes coming tomorrow. The models were showing that potential several days ago, backed off, then found it again with 48 hours.
This brings us into Christmas week and this is the period I’ve been pointing to for the past few weeks, at least. It’s the timeframe that has been giving us a huge signal for a big return of Old Man Winter to much of the country. That signal grows louder the closer we get to Christmas.
It’s so loud that even the GFS is picking up on it…
That basically shows a storm bombing out as it works from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes. A scenario like that has been showing up on many runs of the ensembles in recent days. The newer version of the GFS has been showing a similar setup, as has the European Model.
Speaking of the European Model. Its last run looks like a distant cousin of a certain Ohio Valley storm from January of 78…
I’m just showing you what the models look like. That’s what we do on a weather blog. Folks, I would just settle for some flakes flying around Christmas week. I’m pretty easy to please. 🙂
I will have updates later today. Take care.
Wow! A set-up like ’78??? Mixed feelings about that, lol! I was in CT at the time, and we got 10-15ft snow drifts. What was it like here???
Going to get the hot cocoa and marshmallows stocked…
What you talking about Willis??? Them maps are upsurb and you really should not tease us like that a week away from Xmas. A storm of that magnitude would shut down Kentucky on Xmas. We all know this will change drastically over the next few days. I hope the models are not picking up the possible snow it is showing for the next few days for that to happen. Us long timers on here will only believe it when we see it. That is how I am rolling this winter. Not trusting any one model until we are now casting. Thanks for the Teasing update CB.
The Christmas Eve storm is not the type to shut down Ky. It should be windy and cold but, based on the placement of that low and the lack of cold air this will only bring backside snows to our area. Probably 2-3 inches at best.
Bjenk – If you dont like weather blogs and trying to predict weather far into the future, why do you read this blog? People like you love to complain just to hear themselves complain. Just another keyboard tough guy.
Anyone wanna enlighten those of us who weren’t around yet in January of ’78 as to what went down?
The greatest snow depth ever recorded in Kentucky was the product of several days of accumulation. On 20 January 1978, La Grange in Oldham County measured snow depth of 31 inches.
http://www.kyclimate.org/factsheets/winter77_78.html
“Blizzard conditions on 25-26 January caused the Kentucky State Police to close all roads except for extreme southeastern counties”
G.O.A.T. and as stated it covered almost the entire state, not a few select counties or specific parking lots.
Once you live through something like that, it’s impossible to be impressed with anything less.
Agreed.
Wow. That’s incredible.
we went back to school a very short time after Christmas and didn’t return the entire month of February! That winter was truly incredible…as a child it was unforgettable and the winters upon which all winters will be compared…
Roger remembers that blizzard very well. He was a wee lad growing up in southwestern Indiana and the road in front of our home — a very busy north/south road — was drifted closed for nearly a week before bulldozers cleared. His father couldn’t get home from work for about four days. Truly a event that Roger won’t forget! If only another one…
As a nine year old boy at the time we did not go to school for three weeks. Snow on snow with a blizzard and bone chilling temps for all of January into Feb. Now that is the old skool, trend busting winter weather that most of us over the age of 40 want to see. Or NOT! LOL. 1977/78 consistently shows up as an analog year for this winters setup.
I will believe it when I see it…..THINK SNOW!
I posted hours ago and it never showed up?????
I live in Cincinnati and remember that winter well. The Great Blizzard of 78. UC closed for days which was very rare back then. Snow drifts between 12-15 feet. Wind gusts to 60 mph with zero visibility. NWS termed it a very rare blizzard. Wind chills to -60 below (I believe). It was brutal. The entire city was closed for some time.
I’m not sure what to think of our Tuesday/Christmas eve storm.
Usually Wave 3 and Mr. Bailey are on the same page, but not this time. They have temps warming to the mid to upper 40’s on Tuesday with nothing but rain increasing. NO mention of anything wintry or any chance of a white Christmas.
I hope they are wrong. Tired of seeing a brown Christmas.
C-Biv, beyond Tuesday rain should be changing to snow by Tuesday night into Wednesday. You should start seeing this on Wave 3 later on today with Brian Goode’s forecast.
I love the ’78 talk but understand that it may be a once in a lifetime kind of deal. I’ll take whatever I can get in the way of snow and keep hoping for another biggun’ or two!
Similar tothe Bengals going to the super bowl…once in a lifetime (well actually twice)
12z NAM joining the snow party for Sat. We’ll see if Chris throws out a tweet about it.
Here’s to hoping that nam moves the storm 100 miles south in the next couple of days (and is correct)….
Roger says thanks Mr Bailey for the eye candy for next week. Chances are this won’t work out as mapped but WOW if it did!
I agree Roger! Makes Saturday’s forecast look like flurries. Chris has been talking about it for a couple weeks and model comparison a week out does not hurt the odds.
I`ve learned to not get caught up with model forecast. Not even a day out, too many disappointments for this snow lover. I`ve heard no snow for Christmas, just yesterday, so we`ll see.
Not to be a Negative Ned, but weren’t the models kind of agreeing for this weekend being significant at about the same time frame as for next week’s chance?
The models seem to be thinking like the human ones from the movie Zoolander 😉
I agree to a certain extent. What if we do get a nice 3-4 inch snow this weekend. Then the Euro model a week out would have been accurate. The Canadian called it south with no snow in KY and the GFS had it going North with Indy getting rain. For the Euro and both GFS models agreeing with the solution of a big storm for the Ohio Valley during XMAS can’t be a bad thing. Going to be very entertaining to say the least.
The Louisville Mets are calling for mid to upper 40`s with rain Tuesday
to warm as stated for few day to support snow
12z GFS looks very impressive through the 27th, though it’s showing southern TN, northern GA, AL, and MS with the biggest totals
This is just ugly weather…lol
Ready for some snow!
Wouldn’t that be a nice Christmas present? I know you are only showing the models Chris, but that is something to see, even if it is a week out. Lets hope they stay true and see if we could get some snow for Christmas. I am like you, I would be tickled to have snow flakes and cold temps for Christmas. Ah, a snow lover in southern KY. Have a great Wednesday everyone! Thanks Chris, for the update.