Good afternoon, everyone. It’s another cold, dreary December day in the bluegrass state. Some flurries are flying around and that’s not a bad thing to see a week before Christmas. Something else that’s not bad to see… snow chances ahead.
The first chance arrives late Tonight into Thursday with a streaking area of light snow. This looks to put down light accumulations across western Kentucky. That area could even see some sleet and freezing rain mixing in. That NAM is picking up on the possible sticking snow in the west…
That streak of snow will then weaken the farther east that it gets, but most areas should see a some flakes.
The Friday night and Saturday system continues to look about the same as it did with the last update. The storm is now within the time range of the NAM…
That would deliver a swath of winter weather across the state. We still have to fine tune just how big of a swath that is and exactly where it sets up.
Christmas week keeps yelling “PAY ATTENTION TO ME”. The GFS continues to point toward the Christmas Eve and Day bomb…
Just look at how much of the country being impacted by that type of a system. If that works out like what the models are strongly hinting at, a travel nightmare would ensue for millions of Americans. We shall see.
On a related note, the models are back to busting way too warm with the temps. The GFS is the prime culprit as usual, but the numbers from that model are even trending down for the rest of the week.
I will have another update later today. Take care.
The Louisville Mets are saying mid to upper 40`s, with the Christmas system with plenty of rain.I can understand this seeing the GFS has the low right over Louisville. Seymour Ind. , north looks like a possibility though.
I hope your earlier comment about 78`s cousin comes through, but……………….
Tim, the system on Tuesday will start off as rain but will change to snow Tuesday night with snow on Wednesday. This is a Louisville forecast Ive seen twice from 2 different stations.
Yep
I had just started teaching in 1977 and that year, 1978 and 1979 were three consecutive WINTERS!!! We were off school for weeks and then temps were cold as well so that the ground froze and when the snow was gone the ground was still frozen so the water and sewer pipes were impacted. Would love a winter with SNOW like that again!!
I hope thats correct. Thats what we did in 1978. It started as rain, changed to sleet, then snow. The low stalled around eastern Kentucky and kept snowing. I hope this happens again…………soon
Oh how I remember that snow storm. I was working at Danville hospital. Started home to Lincoln County. Got in the ditch police officer took me back to work where I had to stay for 3 days cause it was so bad no one could come an get me.
chris……instead of the other models being right about the saturday system…….the gfs may actually score a coup for saturday…..i have seen it happen before…..not disputing your word or any thing like that cause i know you are 2nd to no one in this business….keep up the great work my friend……..merry CHRISTmas.
Sun is peaking out here in Carrie of knott co, low 40s. Not too bad a day at all
Every weather source I can find is going with warmth for the Christmas period. Looks like the usual 45 degree rain with a few festive flurries on the backside.
Oh well, win some, lose some. But here in ky we win a couple and lose a lot
Cmon spring
I just wîsh once you would have something nice to say about our weather you are depressing can’t you just let us have a little hope
Just being realistic. I want the snow just as bad as any of you. but I’ve learned that these models a week out are junk. I, like all of you, would love to have an epic storm. But next week just isn’t the one. Nearly every media outlet/weather source I’ve researched are going with warmth for next week’s storm.
I know you are going with the other forecasters but if someone told me hey you got to pick one to go with then you better be wise and pick Chris bailey because I know he is right way more then he is wrong he’s giving us hope because there is hope there we may not get a white christmas and if we dont then thats ok to because if we are alive and able to injoy christmas then thats about all we can asked for,and we don’t want Chris to be right all the time that head of his might get big and we might lose him as our weather guy we should dont want that to happen now do we
in other words,
he would be known as the Weather God.
Yes, and what shall we call you guys? Weather Agnostics or Weather Atheists? 🙂 Lighten up guys.
Bryant – I don’t know where you live but I’ve heard two different Lexington Mets call for a chance for snow Tuesday & Wednesday.
Bryant….if anyone here has read my posts, they know I’m just as frustrated as you with the lack of snow and instead getting more than our share of cold dreary rain every winter here in southern KY but I leave it at that. Your posts ALWAYS come off as slamming Chris for his thoughts and reporting……it’s rude at best. For Gods sake, give it a rest……
I love how people count winter out before it even starts. Our chances for a White Xmas is normally 25%. We currently stand a 50% chance at a white one. I like our current odds. Besides any snow we receive in Dec. is bonus snow in my book. Thanks for the update Chris.
Chris gave the first clue in his earlier post today. He said a storm that moves from the Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes and bombs out. That has rain written all over it,those in Eastern KY and Western WV will be on the warm side, as usual. As always I hope Chris is right. But the local Mets here in WV and the national online sites are all calling the Xmas storm mostly rain with 40 degree highs.
They are wrong.
^^^ Like a boss 🙂
The like a boss cracked me up. 🙂
I want a “like” button so I can like this comment!
They will be right to a certain point.. if this track is what happens it will rain at the beginning with cold air crashing behind bit with the storm stalling or slowing because of the blocking in Canada it will be pulling moisture into the crashing cold as well and could produce a very big impact on christmas.. if if this is the correct solution.. I believe this is ur answer
Well this one is going to happen. We are going to get 6 to 8 inches statewide. Mark this down it is happening. Do not pay attention to the negativity. That is what they want you to do.
Could be looking at it wrong but the Euro looks to me like it now has warm weather for the eastern half of the country for our Christmas snow..Totally different look from last night’s run..Please somebody with access to the Euro tell me i am wrong..
You’re looking at it wrong. No changes on the European
Man it’s time to back away from the computer for a while..Starting to see thing’s..lol
AH HA..Reboot and clearing the cache worked..Have no idea what popped up that i was looking at before..
Get your shovels ready folks. It’s a coming.
Santa has to have snow to land his sleigh in.
Yeah cause if it’s ice, he’ll slide right past KY and end up in WV.
Jamie, that would be AWWSERRRMMMM!!!!
Slide too hard into eastern Kentucky and his sleigh will flip and he’ll tumble out into West Virginia. Those mountains are a booger. 😛
Most all big snows in Kentucky start out as rain.
This track really could put many of us in the money for a white Christmas. Unfortunately, travel could be terrible and may affect millions.
So, save some leftovers from your Christmas dinners.
I will be happy if a couple inches fall around Christmas, no epic storm but one that will make it look nice for Christmas!
Now Chris when you say wild setup you do mean snow wind white christmas kind of wild now don’t you,please tell me no heavy rain wind and thunderstorms right
Notice on social media everyone is calling this “Santabomb”..How lame..lol
Chris, I love your confidence. I really hope you are right. But living where I do in WV, Mother Nature has short changed us so many times. That’s why I am skeptical. You were right most everytime last Winter. And it was a pretty snowy one overall just no big ones, a bunch a little ones that added up to a good total.
This one is different. It is going to come a good ole fashioned golly whopper. Hang on and enjoy the ride.
That remains to be seen. However I like the optimism! What looks like a good bet is snow we should see, how much is the big question. The winds will be real gusty creating some pretty darn cold wind chill values. Definitely with this setup we shall see gusty snow showers/ squalls that could be convective.
Everything from this time forward remains to be seen. I choose to see the big snow that’s coming. I am not looking left or right. Straight down the middle big snow. Not listening to nothing else.
Ok. Keep the faith lol
I will say CB appears to be throwing down the gauntlet. I like the confidence. But, man we are 7 days out.
In other weather news, wonder if Saturday will bring anything?
Just for conversation sakes, does anyone have a link to snowfall accumulations from the 78 bomb?
Since we have 2 Tims here I changed mine. I remember that inch or less bomb in 78 and 94.
Hope Chris is on to something others are missing. According national and local outlets in Hunt. WV, I need to ask Santa for a boat or a life preserver. I would rather have a sleigh or snowshoes.
By the way, I love reading the blogs from both Chris and Brian (Louisville). Both are very informative, they show multiple model solutions and are simply great for us weather “geeks”. I understand that Kentucky is a border state and anything can change or happen.
The GFS actually showed the Low in Kentucky over the Louisville area working up through Ohio and then seems to transfer energy to a LOW in West Virginia. From what I know that would be a good things for snow lovers. Right Chris?
The track with the Xmas storm does not put much snow in the ground if it bombs out after moving over Ky. Looks to me like our best shot of putting a little white on the ground comes this weekend. Maybe I’m seeing this wrong??
Here’s a archive from noaa about “The White Hurricane” in 78 detailing how the storm formed,track,etc..Interesting
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/iwx/program_areas/events/historical/blizzardof1978/
Upper Ohio valley kind of deal..Maybe it will take the path of 93 and give us poor souls in Eastern Ky a shot at something..Anyways will be interesting to follow in the coming days..
My husbands mother remembers that storm well. They had moved to northern Ohio and were living there at the time. She said when she went into labor the ambulance had to follow a snow plow and there were walls of snow on both sides of the 1 lane that was open.
told u too warm, now first next week is GET UR POPCORN ready alert, going be warm then Crash and if tracks stays way it looks now its ON!!!!
now I never saw anything much from this weekend, to warm
People if this storm is anything like the 78 blizzard & you live in eastern ky you don’t need to worry about not getting snow but you might want to worry about getting more than you want! I was in the 5th grade that year & it snowed hard for about a day & half we ended up with about 18 to 20 inches of snow & I live in paintsville, ky. Chris is right it looked like the say setup the euro is showing. I don’t think we saw the bare ground until March we missed 42 days of school in johnson county that winter!
This is like dreaming about winning the lottery and what to do with the money. Then reality sets in and we get nothing. But it is fun to dream.
Long time reader, first time commenter.
CHRIS BAILEY YOU ARE THE MAN!!!!!
not a fan at all at any storm that is supposed to start as rain and change to snow …it always seems to take longer than expected to do and really knocks down the snow totals
The infamous 32/33 rules that dominates central ky weather in play.
question to anyone???
In 1978, did weathermen 6 days out predict the ’78 snowstorm?
Roger’s not 100% certain but seems to remember the ’78 Blizzard came with very little warning and was pretty much a surprise to the mets back then. Pretty sure he’s correct about that.
I was just reading about the blizzard of ’78, because I was young at the time, and only remember certain things. Ummm…Yeah. OMG. Are you really comparing this to that one??? Dang. Never mind the milk, I might take most of the grocery store…
January 1978, I was a freshman at UK. Moved back into the dorm on Sunday after Christmas break, and mets were calling for 2-4 inches. That was the prediction that Sunday afternoon. Woke up Monday morning and there was about 10 inches on the ground, and it was snowing as hard as I have ever seen. Drop/add was cancelled that day, and it just kept snowing.
We wound up with at least 16 inches. We somehow managed to get a luggage cart down Woodland Avenue to the old Chevy Store to get a keg. Epic party ensued.
I was in 8th grade in Logan WV during the 78 storm. I remember it like yesterday, there was no warning for the snowstorm not even the day it started. I watched Bud Dailey give the weather that morning before school it was Jan 19,1978 he said travelers advisory for sleet/ice early that changing to heavy rain with a flash flood watch till the next morning. It began snowing around d 10 am by daylight next morning we had about 20 inches.
Bud Dailey did weather for WSAZ back then.
What if Roger in Dodger talks in third person because someone else is doing his typing for him and he’s just dictating from the comfort of his Barcalounger?