Good Thursday, everyone. Our day is likely to start out with a wintry mix of precipitation across the western and southern parts of the bluegrass state. This could be enough to cause some slick roads for a short time and I will have a full assortment of tracking tools in a bit.
Some headlines start us out…
– Today’s action will diminish the farther east it gets, but could hang together in some fashion all the way to Interstate 75. Again, the best action will be in the west and south.
– This system turned into a much bigger one for areas just to our west. That has robbed a lot of the energy from the weekend system and that means it’s weaker and much farther south. I will fine tune what impact that has on our weather later today.
– Christmas week continues to be highlighted by a major buckle in the jet stream. This should lead to a big storm developing from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes. The exact evolution of all this is a long way from being resolved, but it’s a very strong signal that continues to show up late Tuesday into Christmas Eve…
– Taken verbatim, that’s rain and wind increasing Tuesday with a quick crash in temps with snow taking over Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Snow showers and squalls would then kick into high gear for Christmas eve into Christmas morning. Wind gusts of 40mph would also be possible. Again, that’s what the Ensembles run above would suggest.
– At the very least, we are likely looking at a huge temperature drop with snow showers and very gusty winds for Christmas Eve into Christmas Morning. Of course, there is the potential for a lot more, but I would totally settle with some snow showers and cold for Christmas.
– Some snow on Christmas would complete our holiday snow trifecta with Halloween and Thanksgiving also featuring flakes. I wonder how many times that has ever happened? Guess I will have to do some research soon. New year’s… you’re next. 😉
I will update things later today. In the meantime, lets track…
Current temperatures
Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington
I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 at MP 23
Corbin
I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington
I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South Between Lexington and Richmond
US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort
US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort
US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike Near Covington
I-71/I-75 at Mt. Zion Rd.
Near Covington
I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway Louisville
I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-65 @ 234 Near Bowling Green
I-24 MP 4 @ US 60 Paducah
I-24 MP 7 @ US 62 Paducah
Nashville is on the knife’s edge as it is currently 33 with only cold drizzle; crossing my fingers it will stay only wet as I head to the office. But just up the road, Clarksville TN is 32 with a little freezing rain. Bowling Green is 31 although dry for the moment.
As we know, even a millimeter of ice can be very nasty, so drive carefully everyone.
Thanks Chris. You know we are all watching the Christmas week possibility with anticipation. If we can get a little snow action on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, I’ll take it! Have a great Friday Eve everyone!
morning all.. today song is Party Crowd by David Lee Murphy
Accuweather has something posted about the possible threat next week.
Here’s that article for anyone who might be interested:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/christmas-travel-snowstorm-wind/39163954
Did not read any of the article all I had to see was the map with Low going straight up this side of the Apps. The perfect storm for much of KY. Accuweather also posted video of us getting hammered this weekend and you see where that went. I do like the model agreement on the Xmas one.
Hey tennmark. …it was 30 with sleet/freezing rain here in Decatur this morning I’m about 30 miles or so from crossville.
Hey Tim! Now up to 36 in Nashville, but still kind of a yucky day.
I spent my teen years near Cleveland TN. My folks still live there.
Models backing off Christmas snow…. 🙁
And why not. A week ago this weekend was supposed to be huge. 7 day models trend from big to nothing, never the reverse. Lucy wins, again.
Only the Euro had a storm for this weekend. GFS had it going North and Canadian was South at a week out. So what does the Canadian say about Xmas a week out. Until the storms hit the coast there really is nothing to look at in my mind. I have also seen a model lose it and pick it back up a couple days later.
If you kicked at the football this far out then its your fault Charlie Brown
Models start backing away in 3,2,1……
Last night’s system over performed for WKY? Anyone from that way have pics of their snow?
I live in West Ky….. there was 0 accumulation, just a cold rain over here this side of KY.
Just a stab, but CB may have been talking about even further west. Kansas City so far has about five inches. There is a moderate area of snow just south of St Louis.
Thanks for the updates and explanations, Chris.
Maybe a little snow this weekend to set the stage for Christmas. Very cool!
and thanks to Damaged for the accuweather link…interesting stuff for sure!
You’re welcome! Happy to help!
That’s just great.. 40mph winds at Christmas? You know what that means here in southeast ky? Power outages.
What I’ve been thinking all along, too…Even with no snow, the wind will mean I’ll be cooking on the wood stove.
Odds look to be diminishing for a white Xmas…Snow showers with cold cold winds. Might be festive though.
Another thought would be to look at the current radar. How much if any snow pack will that system put down and will it stay until Xmas. If so I have heard and read that lows a a tendency to track along the edge of the current snow pack. Thus putting the OV in the next line of fire. Thanks for the update CB.
Big snow is always a week away. Same song and dance that seky has had for a while now
According to Jackson the Heat Mizer wins again for not only Christmas eve but for Christmas day as well for the Lake Cumberland area. Temps aren’t forecast to get below 35! Seems like all the players are on the board…kinda like a weather “Game of Thrones” Wonder who’ll sit on the iron throne?
Models are only eye candy a week out. Take this coming weekend for example. They show a snow lovers dream a week away. Then about 3 days out they move it away or weaken it to a non event. Long range. Models are hit/miss mostly miss. Exceptions would be Hurricane Sandy and superstore 93 they did good them.
A superstorm that is. Auto correct got me again
Not true. Only the Euro had storm a week out. As I posted above. This go around the GFS and Euro have both been in agreement with a “storm” moving up the east coast. I like that they agree at this point. Winter is about to smack us in the face. Hope you all are ready.
That may be the case with this weekends upcoming non event. But all the models are guilty of this for years. Their week away track records are bad with a few exceptions.
That’s the spirit Bj! I expect the models to start retreating as far as KY, but like your gumption 🙂
The models do just fine during the boring months of summer but are complete junk during the winter. Anyone who pays attention to them is just asking to be disappointed.
Accumulating snow adds a LOT to the complexity to calculate correctly in this area of the country. We live in the land of forgotten snow.
Well, BG with Wave is usually the most optimistic, just as CB is when it comes to snow.
He has a Twix bar rating for how big of a winter storm will take place on given days. 10 being a shut down the city, and 1 being just minor if any accumulation.
The weekend system he has just 1/2 of 1 twix bar. The Christmas system? One Twix only! It was at 2 just a couple days ago. Even further out…the New Year’s Eve period? One Twix.
Basically, all of these indices that were showing up for a possible winter smack down on kentucky, just aren’t happening.
I’m not saying we can’t still have a monster winter, but, to say I’m not disappointed with the month of December, would be untrue. I remember so many taking about the big possibilities for lots of snow chances (not just festive flurries, or dustings).
This winter had two options left…it will come out of nowhere and make snow lovers rejoice, or it will turn out to be one of the biggest disappointments since I’ve been following this blog (2011).
It seems so much potential is there with the split jet stream being so active. But, when it comes to a MAJOR SNOWSTORM, Kentucky is in one of it’s biggest slumps ever.
Disclaimer- reverse psychology time from a traditionally optimistic snow lover.
Maybe he needs to switch to Reese Cups or Hershey bars…:)
You had me there for a second!!! Lol
It’s just not Kentucky the nation in general really hasn’t seen real appreciable snow. Lake effect yes, but a real true widespread snowstorm not much to write home about even the states that get real snows haven’t seen much.
You are so right. Outside of Buffalo and a few places scattered high in the Appalachians. Snow has been a no show. The Rockies and the upper Midwest haven’t even been hit.
CB really needs to add a like button. c-biv had me going, too, Bjenks. Actually pulled me out of comment hibernation because the world tilted momentarily. Then I read the disclaimer and all was right again.
That said, your information supports the negative Ned stance…..
Welcome aboard!
Apps just wanna puke after looking at the models..
I couldn’t agree with you more, KellyinLouisville
Need the Northern stream to dig deeper like it was showing earlier for xmas storm..Still early,just have to see what happens..I’m about ready to cancel winter anyways..Give me 65 and sunny here on out..
Has winter even started? Now if we are talking like this in mid January I will be ready to right it off. But I will at least give winter a chance and the chances are coming over the next several weeks.
EBIV u and others r CRAZY!!! Winter hasn’t started yet officially .. geesh man calm down. we got 2.5 more months of winter
its ROLO the guy who used to raise cane bout non winters, but come back see me in March after a deep freeze winter. its will get rough SOON!!!
I Kid I kid..lol..Pattern change is still on track looking at the ensembles..
Well that was quick lol. Only took one day to blow apart the epic winter storm. Models are useless, and nothing more than eye candy.
I hope we all have learned a lesson, but It will happen again. Remember, winter is always a week ahead , smh
Winter so far has been a no show. Take the NFL for example no games played in the snow. I guess Buffalo could have been had it not been moved. Not Chicago, Minnesota, Cleveland or Green Bay save for a few flurries in the Packers last game. Last year by this time there many more.