Good afternoon, all. The wintry mix across the west and south is winding down with a lot of clouds and cold air left for the rest of the day. A few snowflakes will be possible across the entire region, but nothing of any consequence.
We’re a week away from Christmas, so let’s look ahead at our snow chances.
The southern system for the weekend will deliver a glancing blow of winter our way, but it’s turning out more complex than that. Here’s the GFS…
It was just a few days ago that model had it raining in Chicago from this very same system. My distrust of the models is well placed and I can sometimes correct their biases… sometimes. Not all the time, obviously. 🙂 Anyway, I’m seeing another bias of the GFS coming into play from Tuesday into Wednesday… the progressive bias. That keeps the storm from bombing out, but still produces plenty of wind, cold and snows…
The High Resolution GFS continues to show the bomb for the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes…
That’s a monster of a storm system that blanket the area in high winds and blowing snow into Christmas Day.
The Canadian Model by Wednesday morning certainly is going in that same direction…
So, even with the most progressive of solutions (the old GFS), you still get snow and gusty winds. That’s probably the weakest possible solution with this type of setup, and I wouldn’t complain a bit with that for Christmas. 🙂
BTW… another storm follows this one up by next Friday or Saturday. That one is likely to be pushed by true arctic air.
I will update things this evening. Take care.
Thanks Chris for the update.
I sure hope it snows for Christmas. The kids would LOVE it!!
Okay, Chris, push those models aside, What are “your own thoughts” about these storms? What scenario do you think might play out? Because quite frankly, I trust your opinion 1000 times more than any of these models. Lets face it, the euro is the only one that has been even remotely accurate this year….
Another day of sun peaking out in Carrie of knott co. High 30s. Not too shabby of a day
THINK SNOW!!
Thanks for the update.
I’m all in.
THINK SNOW!!
Think cold! I just want it to be cold, cold, cold!!!! I’m loving the temperatures here right now (low 30s).
That’s exactly how I feel! I’m loving the cold weather!
These model-“mind storms” are ridiculous. Surely nobody pays money to see these flops 🙂
You are….otherwise, why comment?
Uh, the blog is free.
Just wondering how much snow are we looking at just a estimated guess like 2 or 3 in. Or more 😉 sense it’s such a big storm
Accuweather posted earlier that the pre-Christmas storm would be a Grinch storm meaning mostly all rain and it erases what small amount of snow is on the ground in the eastern U.S. which is probably pretty small unless in northern New England.
“Accu”Weather is probably one the the most un-accurate weather organizations Ive ever seen… I usually don’t even pay attention to temps they throw out, can’t even get temps correct.
they’re more accurate for SE Ky than anyone else except WBIR in Knoxville.
Accuweathwr is pretty accurate on seky I agree
What aggravates the crap out of me is Marc Weinberg on his blog saying that other mets shouldn’t show raw data from models and scare people. And in the same blog post he posts what the models are showing for Christmas. Hypocritical much?
I’ve looked at his site stats. He simply doesn’t like how many hits this site always gets compared to his.
Graupel falling in downtown Louisville
Ok its done falling now lasted a minute maybe two lol
next weeks storm could be anything, as strong as I see it now we will get SNOW on backside of this making for a white Christmas
You officially have to have 1″ on the ground at some point on Christmas Day for it to be considered a white Christmas.
Just a little fyi. 🙂
Festive flakes and dustings need not apply.
Radar looks like some light snow moving towards the Hunt. wv area. It is probably just in the clouds or will dry up when crossing the Ohio River.
I’m about 50 miles south of there and nothing is falling. But a lot can change in 50 miles.
Anything prior to January is a bonus. We usually dont receive cold and snow until the first week of the new year.
Is that how Christmas bonuses came about? 🙂
If it is, our weather has been giving us the Jelly of the Month for about 20 years!
Clark, that’s the gift the gives the whole year long!
lol. Best Christmas movie ever!
hoping for snow on christmas but will probably get rain. saw temps forecasted for next week in the high 40s. probley not right tho. some have been predicting warm weather to return since november.
this is what nws jackson has for my area.
Tuesday Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday Night Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 37. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 43. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Wednesday Night A slight chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Christmas Day Mostly sunny, with a high near 43. Breezy.
I saw about 7 of what I would call “bean bag puff” pieces of snow today in Lex. First snow I’ve seen in the air or on the ground in Madison or Fayette since October. It’s a good sign!
Btw, any mets out there hoping for nothing but cold rain on our Christmas (just to see CB be wrong) can bugger right off.