Good Friday, everyone. Your friendly weatherdude will be on the road for a couple of days, so posts will come at random times instead of the normal structure you often get. My twitter feed will be alive and well with constant updates, so give me a follow. 🙂
Everyone is now fully paying attention to Christmas week and the potential for a healthy storm across our region and for much of the eastern part of the country. Before we get to that, we have to watch tonight’s southern system to see if it can throw some light snow our way into Saturday.
The new version of the GFS tonight and Saturday morning…
That’s some very light stuff, but it does want to target the southern half of the state for some flakes. The European Model suggests a few flakes a bit farther north than that.
Speaking of the European Model… it takes that system and stalls it off the Carolina coast later Sunday and Monday. That then allows rain to develop around here for Monday as we await the arrival of the bigger storm system late Tuesday into Christmas Eve.
The European Model shows our storm bombing out across the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes…
“Bombing out” just means this storm strengthens rapidly as it pushes across the region. Taken at face value, that run shows rain and wind on Tuesday with a rapid temp drop and a change to snow by Wednesday morning. High winds and snow showers and squalls then carry us through Christmas Eve and Day. Again… I am ONLY breaking down what the model is showing. A scenario like that would put some snow on the ground.
The Hi Res GFS also shows a storm that bombs out from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes…
The Canadian Model has a similar scenario…
The regular GFS continues to have a progressive look, but it does show, in it’s own way, a similar overall setup…
As you can see, the GFS doesn’t offer up the stronger solutions of the other models. Let’s say that worked out like that… it would STILL produce widespread snow showers and flurries with very gusty winds for Christmas Eve. To be honest… I would totally settle for just that. 🙂
The more I look at this pattern for late month into January and then look at the supercomputer analog years that match the pattern… wow. It’s becoming very apparent my winter forecast for January was not cold enough (and it was very cold to start). I said the same thing around this time last year and we saw how that worked out. Not only are analog years that featured bitter cold showing up… several of them also produced memorable storms.
Busy times ahead. I will have updates at some point later today. Make it a good one and take care.
Snuffigopolous!!! Man I hope the Euro verifies!! BRING. IT. ON.
The Euro is spending too much time at Chick-fil-Ehh! It is out to lunch.
Have a safe trip Chris.
Here in cky,, i can only “remember” ice dtormd” not many snow storms. Last big one has been awhile. That’s why I keep coming to this site to feed my desire to hear it’s going to snow….Chris gives me hope…but will it ever happen at least here in Richmond….
Bengalfan the trend says no, but you do pull for the Bengals and there record for winning in the postseason is a trend of it own that. Hopefully two trends are broken for you this year. Why not start next week. LOL…
Here you go…bengals beat broncos on Monday night..look out here comes the snow…bengals can’t win and break trend…the little snow is what will fall! Seems logical to me!
I’m hoping for some snow but really hoping the Broncos win! It’ll be my first game and finally get to see the Broncos after being a lifelong fan.
NO..We want the TRENDS BROKEN. Take one for the snow team!!!
I’m hoping a Broncos win will usher in some cold & snow!!! 🙂
I’m losing faith in the Christmas storm but very hopeful of what follows for all of us.
Now your starting to sound like a Bengal fan…”hopeful for the potential”…
Really like the looks for next week. Not getting to worked up as we still have days to go. Hope everyone has safe travels over the weekend, especially Chris. Thanks for the update and I hope the models keep this agreement and the GFS is the one out to lunch as Michael Carson said about the Euro above. The Euro was totally off a week out last week, but it generally is the better long range model to trust.
THINK SNOW!
Seems the models are already slowly backing off. Even CB’s wording seems to have softened a tad.
That or my reading skills are deteriorating.
“Site veterans. Read carefully, the words they do. Revealed. All will be to them.”
– Yoda
Seriously though, I was hoping for this subtle back sliding to not start until we were closer to Wednesday. For it to start this far means you’ll be lucky to see a stray flurry in the air for Christmas, or it will snow somewhere else and end up raining here. Ugh.
NWS in Jackson says sunny & 46 for Monticello on Christmas day….me thinks somebody there is a Grinch!!
I think we need perspective. CB ain’t sayin’ big snow, but blowy windy snow. Dusting to and ankle biter perhaps and based on the map flow, appears we are on the usual fringe.
Says he’ll settle for flurries and wind, Worrisome. 🙁
First off, I hope you have a safe and nice weekend trip, Chris. Second the NWS in Charleston WV has now……”Surprise”…… wiped the word snow from next weeks forecast rain Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday then the dreaded windy for Christmas. Hope something changes in the next few days but it is looking bleaker and bleaker for my area.
Thanks Chris. Be safe while you are travelling over the weekend. I hope we get some snow for Christmas, but I also worry about those who are travelling. We will be only local, and, not far at that. Makes it hard to know what to wish for! I am hoping for snow, but the winds could stay out of it. guess we we’ll wait and see what develops. I do know that I heard two different national news reports this morning that said forecasters are all warning of a big winter storm that will impact the eastern half of the country. They must be reading your blog, Chris! 😉 Have a great Friday everyone and be careful out there. Elves are everywhere!
Based on how the models are trending, I’m betting this winds up as mainly a rainmaker with a few stray flurries possible on the back end.
Which is typical for KY
Louisville Mets are saying a warm up for Christmas. No precipitation and if we see some sun, the high could reach the mid to upper 40`s.
60 for Thanksgiving and sun.
Thanks Chris. Great info and explanations too.
Still a ways away so I’ll keep the faith and think SNOW!
WSAZ is forecasting a showers to windy flakes event for this 1978 distant cousin…
There is somebody laughing somewhere about this.
JKL thinks the Christmas Storm is going to be mainly rain, and the one after, rain also.
6 to 8 inches only. Don’t think nothing else but SNOW.
I’ll believe it when I see it. I have tried to be optimistic for an old school thumping,but it will really surprise me when it happens. And if….thank you CB and have a good and safe trip.
We’ve heard a lot about the pattern going back to winter in a big way Christmas into the first of the year….but as we approach the big week things are not panning out, even temps are on the rise. I guess the question i’m asking is the trend still moving toward winter? It just doesn’t feel like it.
That’s not true at all.
Most of yall depress the crap out of me…no faith what so ever…I get it, trends, trends, trends…but those are made to be broken…we will get a good snow this year! Winter hasn’t even officially started and you people are already throwing in the towel! Smh…Chris, thanks for all your hard work and dedication! It means a lot that you take the time and share all these weather tools with us! I know it is frustrating dealing with all the naysayers, but you keep doing what you’re doing! God Bless!
Amen, Corey!
Nice sunny morning here in carrie of knott co. I had a low of 33 last night temps up in the upper 30s should hit the 40s if the sun stays out like it is
Don’t expect much for Christmas…Unless u live in Michigan..lol..Hopefully the superbomb will shake things up.. What comes after is the big picture..Looks like we may get a -NAO..Been a long time since one of those popped up.. All signs are pointing to a potent cold and hopefully snowy Januray..Gotta keep believing..
Except for the fact that when potent cold comes to KY, the moisture completely disappears.
You sure are right about that one. Same applies for WV. November cold here was all wasted we barely had any flurries during that whole cold spell.
I’m betting on a nice snow here in KY this Christmas week. It more than likely won’t be even close (Okaayyyy…the usual 12-15 miles in either direction of Bardstown…{{{sigh…}}}-) to ME, but hopefully some of us Kentuckian’s will see enough to “count” and make it a Merry Christmas! 🙂