Good Sunday to one and all. The windy city of Chicago has been great to your friendly weatherdude and it’s been good to get away and just relax a bit. I really haven’t had much time to pay attention to the weather or the models. Heck, I haven’t even tweeted much, so you know I’ve been enjoying some time off. 🙂 We will get things back on track to start the week ahead.
The big weather news for the week ahead continues to swirl around the potential for a big storm to develop across the eastern half of the country. This system has been getting a lot of play from the weather world because the models have been going bonkers with this bad boy.
A quick check of the current models still show a heck of a storm, but they look a bit different than before. They are a little more strung out with all the energy coming out and therefore no longer “bomb” a storm out across the region.
They continue to show a lot of rain for Tuesday as winds increase. Much colder air then sweeps in for Christmas Eve with some snow flying around with very gusty winds. That lasts into Christmas morning.
Here’s the European Model…
The GFS is even slower than the European Model,but comes to a similar conclusion…
With that look, it would be hard to get much in the way of sticking snows around here. We will need to see how those models look once the upper level energy gets into an area where the models can get a better sample. As I’ve been saying for days now… some flakes flying around for Christmas Eve into Christmas Morning would be more than enough for me. I’m not greedy! 🙂
The overall pattern continues to progress toward a VERY cold and VERY active one for much of the country during the last few weeks of December and through January. This is a deep trough for the closing week of 2014…
I will keep telling you, the January part of my winter forecast is not going to be cold enough. Same thing happened last year and the overall progression has been similar to last year. Really cold in November with multiple snows… break in December and snow and cold lovers freaking out for not getting a daily snowstorm. Then January, February and March hit with brutal cold and record snows for parts of Kentucky.
I might be able to update later today. If not, a full update comes your way tonight.
Enjoy the day and take care.
That’s right, Chris. I am freaking out for not getting my daily snowstorm and yes I’m being greedy. But seriously…how many Decembers on record have there been with no measurable snowfall? I was wondering if there are any real “analogs” for that situation.
http://www.kyclimate.org/factsheets/bgfirstwinterstorm.html
Well, according to that article, there’s no way to predict how much snow’s going to fall in a winter just judging by when the first one hits.
Just because it is “winter” as it does start today does not mean it is going to snow and there are many mets out there that will also tell you that for Most of KY any snow during the month of December is bonus snow that 80% of our snows come in Jan/Feb. Last winter was very snowy after Dec.
Just as I suspected, another big rain maker. IF it does get cold next week, we can count on it being dry just like the last few days. Then warming up for rain again. Hope you are enjoying your trip and Happy Holidays.
The Weather Channel saying mostly all rain on our side of the storm. As per usual.
Thanks for the update Chris, glad you are having a good time. You deserve it. Like you, I will be happy with flurries and snow showers, it will look like Christmas. Better than sunshine and 50 degrees.
This winter’s over folks…..just “next weeks blizzards” that never happen until April and on to Summer lol….It just doesnt get wintertime in Kentucky anymore. Face it and enjoy life 🙂
Western must have been out west last year. We had one hell of a winter last season. Give winter a chance it starts today.
Was cold but not very snowy here in clay co last winter. Couple/3 cery small snows but thats about it. Jan 20th/21ish I ynink we had a few inches, and another snow on a friday night/early sat morning, only for it to warm up to 46 that afternoon and melt what fell overnight and that morning away. Cant think of anything else of much snow here. Was tge stiem where southern clay and counties boardering Tennessee got several inches but Sharp cutoff left middle clay and northern clay on rain side until next day. We got about 1/2 inch out of it.
London /somerset area is snow starved.
I’ll have to agree, not like the winters of old, just memory’s. Hey maybe that’s the reason that the first line of white christmas goes “I’m DREAMING of a white christmas ” that’s the only way we will get one I’m sorry to say
Weather men continue to try to nail the weather for casts down but even with all there high powered computers they still miss the forecasts a lot. Right up to the final few days they are still trying to cover there hind ends with there cleaver sayings like! (If the cold air catches up to the moisture). It’s that little ( if ) word that protects them from committing fully to most of there forecasts. Boy and when they miss a forecast did you ever notice how hard it is for them to spit out the words! ( I MISSED THIS ONE). Going back and comparing different years does not always help a whole lot either. Each weather year is like people there is no two alike. But I know. There just trying to find a pattern. I think some forecasters try to make it a competition. ( Like Yea, I got this one.) What does the NWS know anyway. They like to keep you tuned in on what they are saying about the whole thing. Like keeping everybody on the edge of there seats waiting on that big one that is going to bury us in white death. And guess what. We follow them like mom in the grocery store. But weather is really like the coming of Christmas. Lets just wait and see what we really get in stead of guessing . Have a Merry Christmas.
Winter hasn’t even started.
Jude you did not get the memo. Winter started in October this year so it is over now. You missed it. Some people on here must have been hibernating last Jan/Feb durning our real Winter.
Good point Jude. Not only has it not started but there have already been flakes in the air at least four times this fall, and colder than average! We live in Kentucky everyone. There’s a reason the glacier stopped at the Ohio River. 😉
1st time posting, but big fan of the blog.
Even though I live in Nashville, your blog gives great information about our area as well.
Chris,
I know it’s out in Voodoo Land, but between hours 204 and 216 it looks like the GFS is giving us the perfect look for a measurable snow in our area. I know it’s more important to pay attention to the pattern that far out, instead of taking it verbatim, but do you feel that’s a realistic option for that timeframe right now?
Again, THANKS for what you do to provide us weather information!
So the Charlie Brown characters from the post on the 17th aren’t really singing in the hopes of a winter blizzard anymore?
Feederband they are still singing I just checked….ha ha…
I wish my part of Richmond had been an area of Kentucky that was “Really cold in November with multiple snows… “. We have had snow in the air once so far and a dusting on a few rooftops. Let’s see what January holds…
Yep. So far the snow that has been gotten has stuck to the very very long trend.
33/32 = Meh
The fence, the dome, 33/32, the trend and BLOWTORCH all come crashing down over the next two months.
….. I64 and north 😉
That is “The Fence” in my book. What I64 is to you the Ohio River is to me. Of course I64 and the river do meet about 4 miles from my house. Can’t tell you how many times I have driven across the bridge 5 to 10 miles north and hit snow.
Thank you, Chris. How ’bout them Cats?!
Like Alena said, I’m good with even a little snow flying around for Christmas, just gives us that look.
Then see if winter can kick into gear after Christmas, come January!
Happy Holidays to All.
Retro like your thoughts…and you will see the cold is a coming very quicky. Let us just hope the lows can find it and some snow flies.
It took a team of marketing mets to coin the term “festive flakes” to spin anemic snow events 🙂
Sure beats ankle-biters, domes,trends, torches, I-64 line and all the other sad spins.
Frolic in the festive flakes?
And thanks for the positive outlook, Bjenks.
Winter starts…..today!
lol. “festive flakes”. I’m with you on this one Bubba. I’m sorry, but there’s nothing “festive” about a few snow flurries flying around…teasing us of yet another misses snowfall opportunity. Those flakes are nothing more than mother natures little chuck under the chin with a caption reading “better luck next time chump”!
December has been a disappointment. I thought for sure we’d have some measureable snowfalls. Seems the pattern has kinda changed from the start we had going back to snow on Halloween. But, we’ve still got Jan/Feb, so maybe we can get the snow going.
That is a good attitude. I think some people are In for a rude awakening come the new year.
To say December has been a disappointment would be an understatement. All it has been is dry/cloudy or raining. We are down now to 10 days to break into the record books here in Hunt. WV only two other december’s were snow less. Very shortly we will have the third one.
And what happen in Jan and Feb of those other two snowless Decembers? Find the dates and we can make analogs out of them.
I will do some research and get back to you. I can tell you we have had about 4 Winters since 2000 where we totalled less than 8 inches of snow for the year and Jan. and Feb. We’re just as snow less as Dec.
i guess its time to start hyping the next “potential” storm 7-10 days from now ….
Well, were are a bunch of short attention span folks 🙂
Thank you sir, can I have another! 🙂
Hey guys…Xmas is now rain and it was suppose to be a blizzard a week ago. Ok let’s look at the models for next weekend. Hey it’s a snow storm, cool! It has got to happen right?
Almost like Groundhog Day! Only it goes by the week.
i love the blog …..but if we were to even get 25% of the storms that were hyped up we would have snow on the ground from nov til april
I am not a meteorologist,but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express. I do believe things will amp up very soon in the snow department. I hope that before it is all said and done that all of us from all over Kentucky get their fair share of snow. Enjoy your trip Mr Bailey. And I love all the comments,whether positive or negative on this board. Kentucky weather is a fickle lady. In the words of Tiny Tim,”God Bless Us All.” It went something like that at least. Lol. Be safe everyone and GO CATS!!!
Things seem to really be changing. I am seeing that my area is now showing 50’s all the way through Friday on other forecasts. With Tuesday and Wednesday both in the 60’s. Overall a fairly decent increase in temperature forecasts as we get closer.
And these forecasts are showing warmer temperatures out past the first of the year. I know those are farther out yet but seems some of those have come up some as well. Seems like they are not seeing the colder forecast.
These other forecasts are often way off from my experience. But as we get closer they seem more confident in the much warmer temps through Christmas at least. Love the weather and watching how it plays out.
Sometimes a big low moving to the North, with warming temps all the way up the east coast, can be the catalyst for a big change in the weather. The Xmas storm just may be the start of a very brutal and cold winter. At least I hope so anyhow!
Boy, we are all grumpy, aren’t we. (I am included in that “we” as well.) It is easy to see why… We can predict the weather,; we can’t create it. (Except for GW / CC – it is creating everything…) Oh well, when is the next “week-away” due?
Even though it was colder and snow or than normal in some parts that statmemt is an exaggeration.
In addition to the Lucy-Charlie Brown analogy, I think another character for us snow lovers in Kentucky would be someone called the Snow Nazi (apologies to Seinfeld!) “No snow for you! Come back in one year!”
I can’t believe all the complaints I’m seeing re: lack of snow. I love snow, but I’m thankful that we’ve been fortunate enough to have a (mostly) cold December this year. While I’m sad that it’s going to be warm surrounding Christmas Day, I’m hopeful that the cold temperatures to follow (not just predicted here, but on other sites as well) come to fruition and that December ends and January begins with cold, cold temperatures.
Fantastic day in Carrie of knott co today
weather apps such as accuweather and twc for my iPhone say highs in the 60’s Tuesday & Christmas eve. but im wishing for some snow. id settle for a flurry if that’s all I could get….
52 degree here today with beautiful sunny skies! With no snow coming for Christmas I’m all in for 60’s and I for one will love every second of it. Down with the cold….it’s wasted without the component of snow. I’ll be just as happy with some warmth for a change.
I admit it, I’m a snow lover, but it seems like we always have a chance for snow 7 days out & then, like clockwork, the forecast totally changes a day or two before. Of course that raises a question, what’s the point of a 7-10 day forecast, other than hyping something that just never happens? Oh well, on to “very cold & active January”….
i agree 100% .. I think we need to stop with the 7-10 out storm hype ….and using the word potential that way if its a bust u can say the potential was there …then if (BIG IF) it does hit someone can say I called it 10 days out lol
The big storms Tuesday CB mentions in his Tweet could include some rumbles of thunder for us, at least according to the SPC. But at this time, the closest severe thunderstorms will get to us may be near Memphis.
In the meantime, the wife and I are enjoying the bright sunshine 🙂 . Decent wx for walking the dog.
Temp pushed 50 today here in Carrie of knott co
I am beginning to think the blog here is like the Seinfeld show, since a lot of great talk about nothing as far as actual snow. Lots of talk about nothing…. get it?? 😉 🙂
Could be a long season of watching OPA on cams (other people’s snow). At least fro the usual suspect areas.
Starting to look a little blow torchy.
Chris tweeted run of NAM an hour ago for Xmas eve….looks pretty good for snow showers Lou to Lex….
I hope the trends continue to show more snow showers 🙂
They have to start 1st
good point
the NEW YEAR will bring ARTIC AIR!!!!
Listening to Christmas music. My favorite is “Here comes the rain again” by the Eurythmics. HAHA
I’m listening to christmas music making orea balls having a ball no matter if it snows or not just glad to be alive
why are there so many whiney people on this blog? Chris takes alot of time to post things for us to get an idea of what may or may not happen…if he didn’t post models from a few days out to show trends the same whiney people would be whining he isn’t posting anything. I don’t comment much but seriously if your gonna complain about everything no matter what he posts maybe you should write your own blog and do your own weather study, that way you can whine to yourself when your wrong and everyone that likes this blog can enjoy it without your complaining…Merry Christmas!
…… CB must also be frustrated at the trend. 99% of the time the models a week out (or even less) overstate snow, but very rarely understate snow. That is truly uncanny.
Maybe CB uses a pseudonym and whines along with us 🙂 😉
“why are there so many whiney people on this blog?”
It is like that. I will not say whiney but here is how it has been. You will see Chris Bailey talking about the models and the potential they show. That is when the huge percentage of the posts are mostly negative and basically the same dead horse that has been beaten over and over. If snow hits the comments die down to a select few. Next possible coming storm, repeat.
And the bad part is you see the same people posting these same things over and over. Someone is a little positive or hopeful you can bet there is a negative or downer response to that post. Never fails. I have heard a lot of negative comments outside of these comments sections about this comments section. It almost seems, just from hearing so much that a lot of readers do not want to comment just for this reason.
Now, this is not my site. And I respect peoples right to post. They want to complain constantly like that fine by me. I would say they need new material though. It is very predictable at this point. Maybe some new material is on order.
Currently I just wade the comments for the insights that some put on here that are useful to me. And I do find those sometimes. And Baileys blog is great.
Hmmmm. Both comprehensive in critique and emphatic about snow whiners. Please keep in mind the condition is kind of like scurvy, but due to lack of snow rather than vitamin C 🙂
Hey, are you really CB using a pseudonym? 😉
I love all 4 seasons…. And now it’s time for snow !!! Good for gardens and your plants gives them nitrogen …. I’m just a big kid Snow get you in the spirit of Christmas just don’t seem rightcome on weatherman give us the forecast snowy white bet you can’t guess where that came from whatsinging group
I just read the forecast for 2015 old farmers almanac predictions and it says January February and March will be cold and a lot more snow herein Kentucky with an 80% accurate rate of what they say and they are already saying that it is going to be a hot and dry summer so look out people who believe in the almanac it’s a pretty good book
Looking forward to how things pan out. One of the “all knowing” from NBC’s morning show essentially belittled the FA and stated the opposite would be the case this winter, due to their “science” data. The same data that forecast that there would be new records for hurricane and tornado events almost every year. That was several years ago and has not panned out too well either. May the force of the Polar Vortex be with you! 😉
I side with the Farmer’s Almanac out of principle 🙂
“There’s no Whinning in weather”….hey chris see you tweeting about NAM, do u believe in it, we’re 4 days away, u think we see a little snow in RICHMOND? .. looks now to be safe bet for rain ,
Glad you’re not gone very often, Chris. Can’t go without the updates! Missed them this weekend. Thanks for all you do!
I like the NAM…