Good Friday, everyone. Today is the day of returns. Many folks will be returning gifts they didn’t want, while others will be returning from being over the river and through the woods. It looks like the weather will cooperate for both groups with some sunshine and milder temps.
Highs today range from 50 in the eats to the mid 50s in the west. Enjoy it because things are a changing as we head into the weekend. Rain gets ready to return as arctic air slowly works back toward the bluegrass state to end the year.
Rain develops across the west early Saturday and rolls east from there…
That’s the simulated radar from the NAM and shows a lot of damp weather. The rain on Sunday will be much colder than what we see on Saturday as temps drop into the upper 30s from west to east. That’s as a cold front worksย in. That slow movement allows another wave of low pressure to develop along it Sunday night and Monday. That one has more rain with a touch of snow on the northern edge…
This is being pushed by a HUGE arctic high pressure digging into the plains states. Cold air will continue to push in here on Tuesday with some flurries possible. That cold really takes hold as we say goodbye to 2014 and hello to 2015. The new version of the GFS shows some very cold numbers…
The Canadian Model is a little colder than that…
Those numbers would be very impressive with a bare ground! Speaking of that bare ground… when do we see that change? The pattern now has the cold air to work with… that’s something we did not have for most of December. We should keep the active southern branch of the jet stream and that means these two are going to try to hook up.
That looks to happen a day or two into the new year. The GFS…
An earlier run of the same model had a similar setup…
I will have updates later today. Have a good one and take care.
THANKS FOR THE WEATHER UPDATE CHRIS
Gonna end up being on of the mildest winters on the east coast easily, No measure able snowfall in the month of December at all? Sheeww
A week out, sorry I’m not falling for this one, though I do hope the models get one right sinner rather than later.
Sooner not sinner
Not totally unusual to see more snow in November than December. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lmk&storyid=105898&source=0
The question would be how did the rest of those winters’ turn out snowfall wise.
Years that show up on that list are 58, 69, 76, 77, and 78. In some research I did back in October, those were memorable winter’s that ALL featured more snow in November than in December for numerous different Kentucky cities. Another year that featured more November snow than December, was just LAST year. I think we all remember how that one turned out. There is one year that shows up on that list that was pretty lame for snow lovers, and that was the winter of 1991. With that being said, there odds of history and climatology favor the cold and snow taking place this winter, as it has in the past. The question is will it do so, and how soon?
1991 also had a very negative QBO just like this year, so our winter could go that way. Concerned also about current solar activity that may limit blocking…studies indicate that it may aid in keeping a fast flow across the U.S which does not allow systems to develop into strong storms. However, I agree with you that cold and snow should come back but it may take 2-3 weeks as the MJO moves into a more favorable stage. To many positives that point to a cold winter, but based on models performance everything past 3-4 days is a best guess.
Just want to say that I hope everyone in KWC blog land had a wonderful Christmas, including our favorite weather guy, CB! Be patient weather friends, snow and cold are on the way. Two of the worst winters I can remember didn’t get cranked up until after the first week of January. We had a really great Christmas without the snow and cold and all my nieces and nephews who had to travel from all across the country to get here did get here safely. I am grateful for that as well as many other things too. Everybody just CHILL and I believe we will get a big chill with lots of snow very soon. Thanks Chris for all you do!
I actually erased a whole paragraph my opinion on the future winter weather, but decided not. Wht did I erase, because I have no idea what it will do, but I can say this, Models are doing a terrible job!
So I will chose to ignore!!!!!!!
Yep, the only constant is the models overstate snow and usually very badly. The rare exception to this are clippers sometimes being understated.
Heck, the model outlooks this time were significant snow to worse case festive flakes, but the only flakes I saw were for breakfast ๐
Lucy it seems could have another very good season. Frustrating for snow lovers, but another level of grief for mets using the data. Kind of like having a car with only low light beams.
I’m holding out hope for some snow as winter gets cranked up around here.
Great info from the Chris triad- (Bailey,Mercer and Reece). Some of those years look pretty good for us snow lovers, Mr. Reece!
Go Cats!!!
Thanks Retro!
Snow was the number 1 thing on my Christmas list, and I didn’t get it. But every year, I don’t get the number 1 thing on my list for Christmas, but instead, my birthday, which is in the second week of January. We shall see if the trend of this continues. Climate should support it!
What do you mean by “Climate should support it”?
Is it model predictions? Because …ugh..they haven’t been right!!!!!
Is it because it will be January? Because that makes more sense than what any model will tell you. Oh well
I think Chris meant the season should support snow. Seems mutually inclusive and makes a lot of sense ๐
“Climate” as in weather history over the course of years. Our climate is one that supports snow during mid January. Sorry if I’m still a bit fuzzy.
Agree 100%!!!! Winter has just started and everyone on this site should understand Kentucky’s climate by now. Cold air comes and goes and storms that roll in from the west with pacific moisture loses it as it crosses the plains only to pick it back up for the Gulf. It just so happens water from the gulf comes with warm air which generally wins out here in Kentucky. Then we deal with the fence that sets itself up somewhere across the state.
THINK SNOW!!!
Which means rain. But I will think snow
Weather maps more than a few days out this year are for dreaming. Weather maps more than a few days out this year are for dreaming. Maybe if Rodger says that enough times, the opposite will happen.
Thanks Chris. Hope everyone had a great Christmas! We have not had ours yet, so I am still in full holiday mode. ๐ Having it on Monday so some cold air will be fine. (Cooking the big dinner that day, too, so maybe the kitchen and house won’t get so hot!) Wondering what the New Year will bring weather wise and will be keeping it right here for the updates. Have a great Friday everyone!
Thanks for the update!! Weather is so interesting, and is always changing! That being said Chris you do an amazing job with forecasting the weather for our state! You give us all of the information as it is presented to you at that time, I love this blog and would hate to see you leave it!! Happy new year everyone!!