Good afternoon, folks. Our day started out with another light snowfall that caused all kinds of traffic issues. That system has moved on and now it’s time to focus on additional snow makers lining up to impact our weather.Yes, I said lining up.

The next arrives later Thursday in the form of a clipper. This will bring gusty showers ahead of it with a quick change to light snow and snow showers behind it…

GFS

Some minor accumulations will be possible Thursday night and Friday morning. Leftover flurries and snow showers would then hang around into a blustery and cold Friday.

The weekend system is still on our weather menu, but the details on how it’s prepared are still to be figured out. I want to continue to stress to folks to NOT get caught up in one model or one model run. Just look back at the past 24 hours worth of model runs and notice how none of them look the same. It’s important to try and find trends in what the models are showing.

The two trends I’m seeing at the moment…

1. The models have a fairly moisture rich setup from late Saturday through Super Bowl Sunday.

2. I’m not seeing a big “deepening” area low pressure.

The midday GFS illustrates my point, but goes about it in a kooky way that may being playing into a bias the model has…

GFS 2

That run brings a lot of moisture in from the south and southwest without any southern stream area of low pressure. The bias of the GFS is to overemphasize the front running disturbance coming out of the northern branch of the jet stream. That’s why you see the clipper looking low across the Ohio Valley.

It’s not the overall setup on the model is terribly wrong, it’s just probably playing up the wrong feature. One of the reasons I’m not seeing a deepening storm is we have several other systems pushing the one above. You will see these arrive into next week.

Check out the arctic shot that also comes early next week…

GFS 3

I will have another update later today. Enjoy the afternoon and take care.