Good Thursday evening. Temps are taking a big tumble as snow showers and flurries get set to take over parts of central and eastern Kentucky. That could cause some issues for Friday morning travelers. That’s a smaller story compared to what looks to be heading our way by Super Bowl Sunday.

I am thisclose to pulling the trigger on a Winter Storm Threat. That will likely happen tonight if things continue to look like they do now. How do they look at the moment? The WPC has already placed much of the region in a slight to moderate risk of 4″+ of snow by Sunday evening…

HPCThat doesn’t include anything that falls Sunday night into Monday.

Here’s a preview of what some of the models are saying…

The European Model snowfall forecast…

EuroThe European Ensembles are just a tad farther south with the heavy snow band…

Euro 2What if both of those are a little too far north with all that? I’m beginning to think that’s a real possibility. We’re seeing a trend developing with the track of the low. One that takes this storm northeast into Tennessee and then due eastward with even a fade toward the southeast once it gets to the Smokies. The Canadian Model was showing that earlier today and the GFS is heading that way…

GFS GFS 2I don’t put much stock in the NAM until within a day or so of an event, but it is doing something similar with the low by Sunday night…

NAMMoral of the story… the potential for a winter storm to impact our region is increasing for Sunday and early Monday. I will update things and may pull the trigger later tonight. 😉

Enjoy the evening and take care.