Good afternoon, folks. Arctic cold is back in control of our weather after a brief break over the weekend. Additional pushes of very cold air will be on display later in the week. But, what about the snow chances? That’s something we will have to deal with on more of a short term basis.

Tonight’s temperatures are a bit of an enigma. For areas with a deep snowpack on the ground and clear skies… readings will drop toward zero and below zero. Some clouds may try to hang around and clouds at night act to keep temps up a bit. Wind chills will be much colder than what your thermometer shows.

A storm system will be developing to our southwest on Wednesday as another disturbance dives into the Midwest. If you want snow around here, you want the plains system to interact with the southern storm and lift t farther north. The models continue to keep these two systems separate, but are a little closer.

The regular version of the NAM shows the separation…

NAM

The simulated radar from the Hi-Resolution NAM shows a bit more interaction with our southern system creeping farther north…

NAM 2

The latest SREF looks similar…

SREF 2

Can we get the famed north trend to kick in with this system? Time will tell, but this drives home the point I’ve been making about these systems only really showing up within a few days.

Even without the storm across the southeast, the plains system should bring a swath of light snow in here Wednesday night and Thursday as arctic air follows.

I will have another update later today. Take care.