Good Monday, everyone. As crazy as February was, the first week of March is going to try to top it. We have a series of systems set to impact our region through Thursday and that means a lot of wild weather. Flooding rains and thunder may give way to a significant winter storm across our region.

Let’s start with what we have out there today. Watch for icy roads early this morning as temps drop deep into the 20s. Refreezing may combine with some light snow and freezing drizzle to cause some travel issues.

A warm front will then lift northward across the region on Tuesday. Gusty showers will develop throughout the day as a storm system cranks to our west. That system works toward the Great Lakes and drags a strong arctic front into the region on Wednesday.

Heavy rain and some thunder will be possible just ahead of this boundary. That will be the time to watch for the possibility of flooding. 1″-2″ of rain will be possible just ahead of the front and that would be enough to cause, at least, some local high water problems.

That same arctic front then slows down as it works to the southeast as waves of low pressure develop along it…

Special 2

That’s a great setup for significant amounts of snow and sleet from the Tennessee Valley through the Ohio Valley. The exact placement of this front will be the key on exactly how much of each falls and who gets in on the main action. The NAM only goes through Thursday morning but is all in on the snow and sleet…

NAM 3 NAM 2

The latest European Model indicates a similar swath of heavy snow and sleet…

Euro

A likely upgrade to a Winter Storm Threat comes later today.

Temps by Thursday morning may drop deep into the teens and not rise much at all during the rest of the day. If we can put snow and sleet down, temps by Friday morning will absolutely tank! Zero or below would be a possibility with clear skies and a snowpack. Record lows?

On a more somber note… today marks 3 years since the deadly tornadoes of 2012. Many of us were personally impacted by that fateful day that leveled towns such as West Liberty, Salyersville and East Bernstadt. The live blog we did that day still stirs up a lot of emotion when I go back and read it…  https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=2706

I will have updates later today. Take care.