Good Monday afternoon, gang. A significant winter storm is likely to hit the bluegrass state Wednesday into Thursday. This could bring everything from flooding rains to heavy snow and sleet accumulations toย our entire region.

I have no changes to the evolution of this expansive system. Heavy rain is likely ahead of an arctic front that sweeps in early Wednesday. Rainfall of 1″-2″ in a short amount of time will be possible and that would be enough to cause some flooding issues.

One thing working to help reduce the flooding risk is the arctic air surging in. That could help freeze some of the runoff, allowing our waterways a better chance to handle the rain. Still, be on guard!

The arctic front then slowly works across the state as waves of low pressure develop along it. There really aren’t going to be any trends to look for in this type a setup. The infamous “northwest trend” isn’t really applicable to this type a storm system.

This has the look of a significant snowstorm and sleetstorm for our region. The NAM (along with the European) continues to lead the way in forecasting both…

NAM NAM 2

The GFS has finally come around to something similar…

GFS Snowย GFS Snow 2

The Weather Prediction Center continues to increase the risk for significant snow totals…

WPC

As you can see, significant amounts of snow and sleet are likely from Wednesday through the first half of Thursday. All of that may be falling on top of high water from the previous rains. With temps dropping into the teens from west to east late Wednesday… a significant ice up is likely underneath whatever snow and sleet falls where you live.

Temps on Thursday may not get out of the teens for highs with Friday morning lows possiblyย heading toward zero or below.

This has the potential to be a HIGH IMPACT winter storm that could cause more issues than what we had a few weeks ago.

I will have the latest on this system on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and have another update on here later this evening.

Take care.