Good Wednesday, everyone. Another period of showery weather is getting set to roll across the bluegrass state over the next couple of days. The frequent bouts of precipitation have been common over the past few months and that’s a trend that continues for the foreseeable future. What about the non-foreseeable future? I have some thoughts on that as well.
Let’s start with today and roll forward.
Highs will range from the mid to upper 40s for many with some clouds on the increase. Low 50s may show up in the west and south.
The clouds will eventually spit out rounds of showers starting late tonight and running through Friday. The latest trend has been for less in the way of rainfall…
Still… the next few days won’t be very nice with chilly temps continuing. It may be JUST cold enough for a few Thursday morning snowflakes to mix in for a few areas…
That is not a big deal at all. Any flakes that fall will quickly give way to plain old chilly showers.
The weekend weather continues to look pretty darn good. Saturday should see some sunshine returning as thermometers make a run toward the 60s. Sunday will see a cold front trying to shoot in here, but the timing of that may get pushed back a day or two into early next week.
I continue to see a pattern full of big temperature swings that skew a littler colder than normal overall during the next few weeks. Speaking of skewing colder than normal, the CFS has a very ugly look for April…
That’s a lot of cold air showing up across much of the country and we can only hope it’s dead wrong! We can also say the same about the precipitation forecast for the month…
Looking even farther down the road… my thoughts have changed some on where the summer pattern goes. You’ve heard the old saying “the more things change, the more they stay the same”. Well, I think that’s very appropriate with our weather pattern. The Pacific Ocean temperature profile hasn’t changed very much since the fall of 2013 and it doesn’t look to change much this year. Most of the seasonal models keep that similar setup going all the way through the start of next winter. Interesting.
Make it a great day and take care.
Looking forward to a spring thunder storm and the aroma that follows. Nice site.
So if you own a pool it might be wise to invest in a heater this year. Third summer in a roll with cooler than normal temps. i might just keep the cover on and save my money this year. Kids are growing up and just don’t swim like they used to. Especially in a cool pool.
Thanks for the update Chris.
I wouldn’t worry about it to much, we will still have some hot stretches we did last year as well, in fact last season we was lucky, the earth as a whole ran well above normal. 2014 went down as the hottest summer in recorded history http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2014/09/18/earth-hottest-summer-climate/15823745/
Which is not exactly certain that it even was the hottest and even that was by percentages of a degree and well within statistical margin of error.
Kind of like using temperature readings in the pole areas that are in inhabited areas, or basing tropical carbon absorption of leaves in the Amazon based on one species of leaves and calling it a day.
Winning!
Just because the numbers are within margin of error does not mean they are incorrect, the thermal profile map showed the earth to be warmer in most areas. Don’t get me wrong I am not a global warming advocate. In my opinion the weather works in cycles, some cycles are warmer and other cycles cooler. Who is to say how long those cycles last
Understood! The thermals though are relative since there is no standard for color level. Kind of like a spreadsheet graph can be exaggerated as far as margin of difference depending on the range used. I do not see how fractions of a degree result in such differing thermal display. If you think about the the level of percent (hundredths) that would suggest the overall thermal result should look virtually the same.
That stinks. Three straight months of below average temps. Spring is usually my favorite time of year, but with three straight “cool” springs it’s not been as enjoyable.
All it takes is one large tropical cyclone to throw everything out of whack….
I have read that we are actually heading into a period of extended global cooling due to a decrease in solar activity, and that the so called man made global warming is simply not true because green house gases really don’t have any effect on our climate . The warming that occurred during the 20th century was because solar activity was at a very high level during that time, but solar activity has slowly been decreasing since the 90’s.
Today’s temps are my idea of early spring. I’ll take 50s fora while, feels good out working
Man, this pattern across the US has been astounding! We have not had a major hurricane hit the US since 2005! That’s the longest hurricane drought we’ve ever had and smashes the previous record of 5 years. Also a hurricane has not hit Florida in also 9 years, smashing the previous record of hurricane drought of 4 years!
We have had some cool/cold times recently. Eastern US has averaged cooler than normal since 2013. The coldest winter since the 90s last winter overall and the coldest temperatures across the E. US this past February since the 70s, one of, or the coldest decade in recorded history. Historical snowfall season in Boston with snowiest season ever since data has been recorded for 130 years +! Record breaking cold and snow in the Bluegra-ss state. Very wet and cool spring/summers. We haven’t been in a concerning drought since 2012, and same applies to most of E. US. With record heat and drought out west
Tornado drought… we have had the two least back to back seasons for tornadoes in 2013 and 2014, even 2012 was not bad in GENERAL, only one terrible outbreak happened which was unfortunately here in Kentucky. We have had NO tornadoes so far this month which is only the second time this has happened in recorded history. A March without tornadoes? Never… we might be able to get by with no tornadoes this month, given that the pattern for tornadoes is nearly non existent in the next few weeks. And it has been nearly non existent (excluding KY) since 2011!
It seems like extreme is followed by an extreme opposite. Historical record breaking hurricane season in 2005, followed by record breaking hurricane drought. A record breaking tornado season in 2011 followed by record breaking lack of tornadoes. Record breaking heat in 20111-2012 followed by MUCH colder than normal weather after. Record breaking droughts in Georgia and parts of south and Texas and even Minnesota, followed by record breaking wet seasons.
Why? I don’t know but it’s been pretty crazy in the weather department the past decade. (BTW, I can’t believe it’s been nearly 10 years since hurricane Katrina in 2005, I was living in Florida during that season)
Nice post, Israel. Interesting but perhaps not too surprising how extremes opposite of ours have happened elsewhere, or at least happened here but at somewhat unexpected times of the year.
Tropical systems are rather rare in the mid-Pacific from Hawaii north, but last summer of course made the history books regarding all the hurricanes/tropical storms in and near Hawaii.
Our area has indeed had relatively quiet springs as far as tornadoes are concerned. True, January and February of 2012 had several tornado outbreaks that led up to the March 2 2012 outbreak. But things were rather quiet the rest of that spring and the springs since then. However, the fall of 2013 was unusually active with twisters in our area – even considering that autumn is a secondary severe wx season.
The general consensus for this spring’s severe wx season is that it will be a bit below average overall, but still somewhat more active than the last two springs.
You bring up a lot of good points that I have not looked into or thought much about. I wonder how long these cycles will last?
I don’t see 4-5 degrees below normal as a bad yucky thing. Temps in April average plus or minus 70. Win win
I meant to say average is in the 70 range