Good Friday, everyone. From the “only in Kentucky” weather category… frost and freezing conditions start a day in which we quickly turn our focus to potential severe weather. A potent storm systems will roll our way tonight and Saturday with rounds of showers and thunderstorms developing. Buckle up for the ride.
Upper 20s and low 30s will be out there this morning and some record lows may fall. Clouds will increase this afternoon with temps responding into the low and middle 60s for highs.
Showers and storms will then increase from west to east this evening into tonight. That’s when our storm system approaches the region. This looks to ride right on top of the region on Saturday. Along and south of the track of the low is where we will find the threat for strong and severe thunderstorms.
The future radar from the NAM shows some hefty showers and storms around early Saturday…
That’s on the leading edge of warmer air pushing into the region. Check out the amazing temperature for afternoon high temps…
The farther north the warmer air gets, the greater the instability and the greater the threat for severe storms where you live.
The NAM shows a couple of intense rounds of storms developing during the afternoon and evening…
That could fire up some big time storms around here… you are officially on notice for the severe potential.
Things clear up by later Sunday and that takes us into Monday as temps remain cooler than normal. Another rain maker is possible later Tuesday into Wednesday.
Looking for some good news? Temps will likely spike for Kentucky Derby weekend…
I will have a severe weather update coming your way later today. Take care.
Seeing data that is starting to concern me regarding the severe potential tomorrow. Seems like as of now, the order of threats are very large hail, isolated tornadoes, then wind. Flooding is also a big concern given that the 00z NAM is spitting out 2-3″ of rain in Lexington the next couple of days. Lightning is also the obvious threat. The low is trending North so far which brings more warmth and instability, which is fuel to get those storms going. Supercells are not off the table, and it looks like a few Supercells could fire up if we get enough of a break in the rain and peeks of sunshine. I will be in Bowling Green tomorrow, so I am in even more of a risk. Be on the lookout and stay up to updated everyone!
Looks like I will be once again firing up the time lapse feature on my Note 4 to capture amazing video. Likely will try to live tweet severe weather observations!
A disturbing analog from late March 1997 was the third ranked analog out of the top 15. It was not a pretty picture for Kentucky.
CIPS analog web page from St Louis university for Saturday evening.
Chris, do you see the comma head in the last radar frame from the NAM that you posted? That’s setting off a red flag for me. I hope that doesn’t verify…we could be in for some very active weather if that’s the case!
As we know, this a prime time of the year for severe wx. To underscore this, on yesterday’s date back in 1968 was an outbreak that included a high-end F4 tornado that leveled part of Falmouth KY.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_Wheelersburg,_Ohio_tornado_outbreak
As Israel well touched on in her post, the threat for Saturday is looking more ominous, including for my in-laws in Bowling Green as well as for my wife and I when we visit my folks in the Chattanooga/Cleveland TN area. Residents in Bowling Green, Nashville and Cleveland TN recall the severe events of April 16 1998 only too well. Everybody needs to have their wx alert devices in good working order!
I think I’ve said this on here before but the Falmouth tornado took out my Dad’s house (nobody was home). He was building another house at the time – the one my Mom still lives in today.
Wheelersburg is just across the Ohio River from where my Mom grew up in Greenup County in the 1930’s and 1940’s.
We just had all this rain and yet there are burn bans in several areas.
Swing that low to the NORTH! I’m ready for some severe action! This spring season has been a snoozer so far!!
NWS in Louisville has a 3PM conference call to discuss tomorrow’s risks. Ahem, somehow I was again left off the invitee list.