Good Sunday, everyone. We have scattered showers and thunderstorms getting ready to blossom across the bluegrass state. That’s what we have to look forward to for the week ahead. But, what about MUCH farther down the road? I’m glad I asked that question. 🙂

Let’s start with where we are now and roll way, way forward. Highs on this Sunday should reach the low and middle 80s with an increase in humidity. Isolated storms may develop with the best chance in the west.

Storm chances increase on Memorial Day and into Tuesday…

NAM

Scattered storms should continue into much of next week with the potential of some needed, and heavy, rains.

Let’s talk about the loooong range forecast from one of our seasonal computer models. This is known as the JAMSTEC and it’s one I’ve posted many times on here. I’ve found it to be pretty good in recent years, so I always look to see what is has to say.

The latest run just came out and shows something we already know… El Nino is coming on gangbusters out in the Pacific Ocean. As you know, all El Ninos aren’t created equal. Strength and placement of the warmest waters are the determining factors in the resulting weather across the United States.

This El Nino started this past winter and continues to strengthen and is likely to become strong by late Summer or Fall. Notice how the warmest anomalies get pushes from the South America coast back into the central Pacific…

Analogs

When a moderate to strong El Nino is east based near the South American coast, that spells bad news for winter loves across the country. See the winters of 1997/98 and 1982/83.

When the warm water is centered farther back into the central Pacific, we tend to see much colder and snowier winters across the country.

Now, check out the warm water in the Gulf of Alaska and off the west coast of North America. That’s been there since the fall of 2013 and has, in my eyes, been the catalyst in giving us back to back wild winters. The models all suggest that is STILL there through the rest of the year and upcoming winter. It promotes ridging into Alaska and western Canada, and allows for the jet stream to dip way south into the United States.

Given all that is showing up on the JAMSTEC, here’s what the model suggests for seasonal temps…

Analogs 2

Can we make hit the trifecta of harsh winters ala the late 1970s? Time will tell, but the JAMSTEC certainly thinks so.

Have a great Sunday and take care.