Good Thursday, everyone. Rounds of heavy rain producing showers and storms continue to push across the bluegrass state. This action is setting the stage forheavier rains coming from the leftovers of Tropical Storm Bill. It continues to look like that system will track right on top of Kentucky.

Storms today can be on the strong side with some local severe weather possible. The main threats will be from a lot of lightning (LOL) and torrential rains. The rains could lead to local high water issues developing.

Rounds of showers and storms will get more of a tropical punch later Friday into Saturday as what’s left of Bill rolls on top of the region. The core of the system shows up very well on the precipitable water forecast map…

GFS

There has been no change on the model track of the core of this system. The only change is the precipitation forecasts from the models are finally catching up. Those forecasts never matched up with what the  core of the system was actually doing. That’s why you never saw me write about them or tell you everything would miss us to the north.

As it stands now, Saturday into Saturday night could get interesting as that core passes right on top of us. The rain shield and storms with this system may actually increase during this time and that could cause some issues. Obviously, flooding would be possible if things play out in that fashion.

After that passes through, temps head toward 90 for Sunday with storm clusters cranking from the northwest. That setup could send some big time clusters of strong and severe storms in here into early next week.

The second half of the week may feature the hottest temps of the entire summer around here if storms don’t get in the way (and that’s possible)…

GFS 2

That’s a transient heat ridge which would only be around for a couple of days. Look what replaces it a few days later…

GFS 3As usual, I have you all set to track today’s storms…

 

 

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

I will have updates later today. Have a great day and take care.