Good Monday, everyone. Our stormy period rolls on across the commonwealth of Kentucky. These storms will be rather frequent this week and should bring additional heavy rains to go along with a severe threat. The increase in the action is because of a change to a cooler pattern that is already underway. You’re just not going to feel it until the weekend and next week.

Today should feature a storm or two out there, but this looks to be the driest day of the week. Thunderstorm chances will really ramp back up on Tuesday when another round of severe storms could come calling.

Get used to that… storms will be very common for the middle and later part of the week and that should take us through the upcoming weekend. That’s when a strong system digs in from the northwest…

Euro

That could be a decent severe weather maker across our part of the world. There’s also the chance that system stalls across the Ohio Valley or another system could dive in and take its place. With a big heat ridge developing in the west and a deep trough digging into the east, the chance for a lot of rain continues to be with us. The two week model rainfall forecast…

GFS 2

Don’t take the exact placement and numbers to heart, but do listen to the overall theme of the models… stormy!

Another trend is toward cooler, and potentially much cooler. The GFS Ensembles as we close out June and say hello to July…

GFS

I leave you with your daily dose of tracking tools…

 

 

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.