Good Tuesday, folks. We have rounds of showers and thunderstorms working across the state over the next several days. All of this is part of a very busy pattern that will feature a couple of fall cold fronts working in over the next week. Let’s get after it!
Scattered showers and storms will be noted today with a lot of tropical humidity in the air. Any of these storms could be strong and drop some locally heavy rains. Highs will be in the muggy 80s.
That high humidity will be around again on Wednesday, but this time a strong cold front is being thrown into the mix. Strong to severe storms will be possible later in the day into the overnight as the front barrels in. This is a very impressive looking system for the middle of August…
Showers and storms will linger into Thursday with temps mainly in the 70s for highs. Winds will gust up as the front punches through with much cooler air coming in behind it. That means better weather should be with us Friday and Saturday with pleasant temps around.
Another fall front arrives later Sunday into Monday with more showers and storms…
Check out the much cooler than normal air sweeping in behind this front Sunday night into Monday…
These fall fronts are very impressive for this time of year. This continues a trend we’ve seen around here for the past three summers.
I leave you with some tracking toys…
Make it a great Tuesday and take care.
First!
Good day all!
If looking at the graphs right for El Nino looks like region 1.2 has cooled and region 3.4 just keeps getting warmer..Impressive..Guess you could call it a central base El Nino..Epic winter or blowtorch..Who knows??
Sry..Basin wide El Nino..Anyways if the very warm waters in the NE pacific hangs around aided with the strong Nino it sure will be interesting ..
SPC has downgraded tomorrow’s Categorical Outlook from a Slight Risk of severe t-storms for our area to a Marginal Risk.
We will see if this changes again about 24 hours from now, which of course it can change. Still looks like damaging winds and hail will be the main issues on Wed. A relatively low if not zero tornado risk; but still might get a supercell t-storm or two. Some local flooding issues not out of the question but many areas have finally dried out enough so the ground can now absorb some rain. There’s a small creek a couple of miles from my house that often dries up but recent weeks have been one of the rare times this year I’ve seen it dry!
Thanks CB for your tireless work and the recent winter outlooks. 😛
1997/98 was the strongest El Nino on record, right? That winter here was noting special until feb 98 which we have talked about a lot over the years. I wonder if that El Nino had anything to do with that freak storm?
Seems like 1982/83 was another strong El Nino. That was a Blowtorch Winter. Highs in the 60s and 70s around here were common. This kid did not like it at all but it that happened now I’d be 🙂
I remember hearing about the big Feb 98 snow in Kentucky as a Tennessee teenager. Anyway, my wild guess is that El Nino did indeed generally hold down winter weather that season. El Nino’s warm waters were just off the coast of northwestern South America which usually means wimpy winters for our area. But perhaps that big snow shows there can be exceptions to any rule. Someone more in the know could also point out other factors for that snow, such as something along the lines of the Arctic Oscillation (?).
That same winter also had horrific tornado outbreaks in Florida and Alabama, something that El Nino makes somewhat more likely for those areas – especially Florida. But then on April 16 1998, Kentucky and Tennessee were hard hit by tornadoes (near Glasgow KY, the infamous downtown Nashville twister, the so-called “forgotten F5” in south-central Tennessee, the big hail storm in Bowling Green KY, etc). KY and TN are somewhat more likely to have big tornado outbreaks during La Nina, yet El Nino was still prevalent in April 1998.
This Years Nino is different than 97-98..This year looks to be basin wide as 97-98 was East based..Plus the Pacific north east is a firecracker right now..Not so in 97-98..All good things heading into winter on paper..Complex situation..Believe if things hold course with a raging STJ and the right storm track with -epo block someone will see some big time snows or ice..feast or famine.
Kentucky sets wettest record for July at 8.99″, beating old record of 8.25″ (1910).
NCDC State of the Climate National Overview
For what city is this? I think some areas got more than 10 inches in July. I had nearly 10 inches here in Harlan Co., and we did not get the heaviest rainfall in the state.