Good afternoon, folks. We continue to track a wild setup as we head into the first few days of October. Joaquin is now a Hurricane and should become a strong one over the next few days. The interaction between our hurricane and an east coast storm could create an absolute monster over the weekend.
Before all this happens, we have bands of heavy rain to track across central and eastern Kentucky. A steady band of heavy rain has already produced 1″-3″ of rain in part of west-central Kentucky. Recent runs of the NAM had a great handle on that setup and continue to do so. The Hi-Res NAM initialized perfectly with the placement of the band this morning. That same model suggests it slowly works east and northeast into central Kentucky later today into Thursday.
Check out the heavy rain totals over the next few days…
From there, rain is likely to increase from the east later Friday into Saturday. That will be the case with or without Joaquin combining forces with the east coast storm. The NAM shows a wall of rain and wind rolling in early Saturday… Temps through this time are VERY chilly with lots of highs in the 50s.
So, what about the monster storm potential? That is most certainly on the table, but we will continue to see wild model swings with that possibility. I will update all that later this evening.
Updates as needed later today. I leave you with your daily dose of radars…
Take care.
Chris, when do you think we will see our first flakes for the year?
C in BG, if CB could answer that question he would be running hot dog stands on the moon.
Is he?
Fairbanks AK sets 24-hr record for snowfall in the month of September at 11.2″…storm total at midtown is 13.6″ as of 7:00 a.m. local time. Their winter is already off to a powerful start.
Their snowpack is probably already set until June of next year.
Eagerly waiting for the 12z ECMWF. If it flips and turns to the US coast instead, this is a major win for the US GFS. Almost like Sandy except GFS may win out this time. Rare for GFS to win with a large lead, but this wouldn’t change the accuracy of the model since it’s only one event and no internal components were changed. But this is interesting nevertheless.
Held course..OTS..Still throws some rain our way..GFS upper low captured JQ earlier than previous runs..western track..Landfall on outer banks..Its all models versus Euro on outcome..
Euro definitely an outlier but can’t rule it completely out. Euro ensemble is quite spread, which leads to less confidence and higher stress for mets forecasting this.
I’m trying to plan an overnight kayak trip on Green river through mammoth cave park for Friday evening / Saturday morning. Am I going to get soaked?
Getting a little to close for South East ky..
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif?1443646102
Other than dulling the fall foliage out, a few inches will not hurt Harlan Co. too bad.
It that much rain comes to the East Coast that could cause some major issues.