Good Thursday, folks. October is off and running with a supercharged pattern across the eastern half of the country. We have a ton of weather going on with a big east coast storm trying to make a weekend love connection with major Hurricane Joaquin.

Regardless of what happens with that atmospheric romance, the weather around here looks ugly for the first few days of the new month.

Here’s a rundown of how all this may play out:

– Scattered showers will be around today and we have to be on guard for a heavier band of rain setting up somewhere across central and eastern Kentucky. Highs will be in the upper 50s and low 60s.

– Showers increase on Friday as our flow comes more from the east and southeast. That will make it back to back Fridays with watching rain moving in from the eastern sky. Locally heavy downpours are likely with temps struggling to get out of the 50s.

– Showers from the east will continue into Saturday and Saturday night. The extent of the rainfall depends on what happens along the east coast. Highs should be back in the chilly 50s.

– Winds will be very gusty through the weekend. Routine gusts of 20-25mph will be noted, but some gusts to 35-40mph can’t be ruled out. This is a nice little pressure gradient we have out there.

So what happens this weekend across the east coast? That’s still very much up in the air and the models aren’t showing a lot of continuity. But, that’s to be expected with a rather extreme setup.

This is getting within the window of the NAM. That model appears to be a southern outlier with the track of Joaquin into South Carolina…

NAM

Here’s the rainfall forecast from that run…

NAM 2

The GFS shows a different solution with each run of the model. The latest run shows the east coast low diving all the way into the deep south and slingshoting  our Hurricane into the northeast…

GFS

The Canadian Model is showing a bit of consistency with the overall evolution along the coast…

Canadian

The European Model is also consistent in showing Joaquin escaping out to sea and never really getting close to the east coast…

Euro

That still shows some very heavy rains and gusty winds around here as we head into Friday and Saturday, especially.

I will update as needed through the day. I leave you with your daily dose of radars…

 

 

Have a great day and take care.