Good Thursday, folks. October is off and running with a supercharged pattern across the eastern half of the country. We have a ton of weather going on with a big east coast storm trying to make a weekend love connection with major Hurricane Joaquin.
Regardless of what happens with that atmospheric romance, the weather around here looks ugly for the first few days of the new month.
Here’s a rundown of how all this may play out:
– Scattered showers will be around today and we have to be on guard for a heavier band of rain setting up somewhere across central and eastern Kentucky. Highs will be in the upper 50s and low 60s.
– Showers increase on Friday as our flow comes more from the east and southeast. That will make it back to back Fridays with watching rain moving in from the eastern sky. Locally heavy downpours are likely with temps struggling to get out of the 50s.
– Showers from the east will continue into Saturday and Saturday night. The extent of the rainfall depends on what happens along the east coast. Highs should be back in the chilly 50s.
– Winds will be very gusty through the weekend. Routine gusts of 20-25mph will be noted, but some gusts to 35-40mph can’t be ruled out. This is a nice little pressure gradient we have out there.
So what happens this weekend across the east coast? That’s still very much up in the air and the models aren’t showing a lot of continuity. But, that’s to be expected with a rather extreme setup.
This is getting within the window of the NAM. That model appears to be a southern outlier with the track of Joaquin into South Carolina…
Here’s the rainfall forecast from that run…
The GFS shows a different solution with each run of the model. The latest run shows the east coast low diving all the way into the deep south and slingshoting our Hurricane into the northeast…
The Canadian Model is showing a bit of consistency with the overall evolution along the coast…
The European Model is also consistent in showing Joaquin escaping out to sea and never really getting close to the east coast…
That still shows some very heavy rains and gusty winds around here as we head into Friday and Saturday, especially.
I will update as needed through the day. I leave you with your daily dose of radars…
Have a great day and take care.
OK – so now my TWO LEAST FAVORITE weather months are in the past – And now October comes around and the excitement begins 🙂
Funny, I always hated August and September too. August is my least favorite month because of growing up with the dread of school coming back in and September because of the dry, boring weather.
Yes, October through May are the most exciting months weatherwise in these parts.
Well some indications are that my part of the state in SE KY is going to get at least a half a foot of rain by the end of this weekend with a great deal across Central KY too, so I guess we will not have to worry about a dry October. I mean, we are only on the first day of the month! My September rainfall for Harlan ended up being 4.30 after only having 1.26 through last Wednesday. When you get over 3 inches of rain in just a week, you can completely turn a dry month around:)
Looks like Joaquin is turning into a fish storm, which is great news for the East Coast. Now if we can get this foggy rainy junk out of here 🙂
Here’s the Euro from last night..This is with J out to sea..Look at the rain amounts showing for S.C..Hard to believe just from an ULL..
http://s12.postimg.org/s4rfrqs7x/wowz.png
It looks like eastern my is in for a lot of rain & possible flooding. Most of it just depends on the hurricane course
Doubt flooding in EKY…South Carolina definitely..GFS is spitting out same numbers for SC..Never seen so much rain forecasted from a non tropical system..
inch of rain at best for SE KY, locally little more if u get lucky. not going be ALOT of heavy moisture this weekend. just enough to muddy the track at Keen. is these EAST/WEST movers a sign of a OLD SCHOOL TRAIN Winter???
If we can keep the -epo with a STJ on steroids i say at least one 20+ snow with a couple of ice storms..Should be interesting with the strong El Nino.
Joaquin is now a Cat 4 storm 🙁 . The part of the Bahamas now being hit is relatively sparsely populated, but they are still getting devastating winds. Hope the European model will win out as it early on said Joaquin will go out to sea; as mentioned by others earlier, the European beat out most other models with predicting Hurricane Sandy a few years ago.
Nashville TN has missed much of the rain other areas have received the last week or so although we have picked up roughly three quarters of an inch during this time so it will at least keep the brush fire danger under control for a while. But September ends with below normal precip.