Good Sunday to one and all. Our chilly run of very wet weather is finally coming to an end. We’re going from absolutely ugly weather to a fantastic fall stretch of sun and pleasant temps. While we enjoy the gorgeous weather to come, I’m already tracking colder changes down the road.
A leftover shower early today will give way to some sun and temps hitting the upper 60s to low 70s this afternoon. That kicks off our great run of weather for most of the week ahead. Daytime highs will be in the 70s with lows dropping into the low 50s. Skies stay partly sunny through Thursday.
A cold front drops in from the northwest by Friday with a band of showers and some thunder. Winds look pretty gusty with temps coming down several degrees. Several of the models still try to pop a slow-moving area of low pressure along this front. The GFS is the most robust of the bunch and spits out some decent 3 day rains…
It’s the following week that should be able to produce some pretty good cold shots into our region…
That matches up well with some of the analogs I’m toying with and matches what the look of the pattern should spit out.
The Canadian CIPS model is out with a new forecast for the winter ahead. It comes out around the first of each month and I’ve been posting what it’s shown since August. Here’s the latest month by month forecast of the upper levels…
Notice the retrograding ridge across Canada and the low heights across the Aleutian Islands. That setup argues for a decent trough in the eastern part of the United States, and that’s what the model shows. Throw in an active, El Nino induced, southern branch of the jet stream and you can get some big storm systems.
I will ramp up the winter talk over the next few weeks.
Have a great Sunday and take care.
I have calculated over 22″ since Oct 1 noon for Mt Pleasant SC just northeast of Charleston near the coast…one location has unconfirmed amount of over 24″ according to NWS employee in SC. That is more than the 21″ we received at Louisville during the rainy period of March thru May, 3 months worth of seemingly endless saturated soils, these residents have received in 3 days.
It really never ceases to amaze me how such a small geographical distance from any one set location can mean the world of difference when recording precip totals. Here in Harlan, KY, I only received .29 hundredths of an inch yesterday, while less than 100 miles from my house in Virginia and Tennessee saw several inches of rain. Only 300 miles from my house, Columbia SC and other communities picked up 10 to over 20 inches of rain within 48 hours…simply amazing…
folks if u keep track of the outlooks etc, this could be a RECORD breaking winter. with all the east coast action we have seen of late says LOOKOUT for the winter months.
Bring the snow, Rolo!
I see a lot of forecasts calling for lots of snow this winter