Good Thursday, everyone. We have another good looking weather day taking shape, but changes to the overall weather pattern continue to show up. The first sign of this change arrives in the form of a cold front on Friday. That front looks to set up a “follow the leader” type of pattern in the coming few weeks.
Skies should be partly sunny today, but I can see a scenario where we try to pop a shower or two late in the day.
Scattered showers and storms will increase along and ahead of this front on Friday. A weak wave of low pressure looks to develop along this boundary and that will keep some showers going into Saturday morning in the east and southeast. Gusty winds will blow chillier air into town with readings by Saturday only in the 60s for highs.
Sunday morning could be quite chilly across central and eastern Kentucky. Some of the valleys could even make a run toward the high 30s is skies are clear…
Upper 60s to low 70s will be noted on Sunday as skies stay partly to mostly sunny. That looks like a GREAT day to check out some of the fall festivals!
Another cold front shows up late Monday into Monday night. That front could spark another round of scattered showers as it blows in…
After a spike into the 70s on Monday, those numbers come back down into the 60s behind that front into the middle of the week.
Another front is likely to show up on the scene by the end of the week into the start of next weekend. This is the time period I’ve been saying to watch for a decent cold shot to come our way. That shows up well on the European Model…
Check out the source region for the air coming in behind that front…
The GFS is now getting on board…
Could that be our first serious frost threat? It looks the part.
Check our what follows a few days later…
The Canadian Ensembles go wild with a deep trough around the same time period…
Well, I just saw Accuwesther’s forecast for 2015-2016, basically showing milder winter?
I saw it too. It looks like they are basing their forecast on the typical effects that an El nino has on the U.S. I never saw mention of the warm pool of water in the Gulf of Alaska, or the overriding weather pattern we have had the last two winters. I am not sure what CB thinks of the upcoming winter. If the Predictions at Weather Bell are correct we could have another decent winter…. http://www.weatherbell.com/public-winter-15-16-forecast
http://cdn.farmersalmanac.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2016-us-weather-map.jpg
…..or The Farmers Almanac 🙂
The weather channel is still holding to the dry and mild conditions over KY for the winter. I wish they would not base the forecast on typical strong El Ninos from the past. Actually since I have been alive, I have not see a dry winter come from El Nino period, at least in SE KY!!! I will continue to preach against The Weather Channel and Accu Weathers’ long rang forecasts as almost every year they are wrong. CB knows what he is talking about…follow his lead for sure!
Yes, Accuweather, The Weather Channel, and NOAA haven`t been the most accurate of weather sources recently. I keep up some with my local weather mets, but CB is my main source for weather info. One of the reasons I use KYwxcenter for my main source is because Chris brings more details to the weather. For example instead of using “one size fits all” on the forecast with this El nino he elaborates on the subject bringing us more precise detail and his interpretation of the different forecasts and models.
Thanks CB, you always keep us weather watchers updated!
Well that was a very short drought. Seems like the rains the past few weeks was enough to wipe out the drought conditions that were around KY. Though there are still “abnormally dry” areas. Hopefully we get enough rain with these cold fronts to completely wipe away the rainfall deficit we’ve had since August in areas.
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?KY
North and South Carolina’s numbers are pretty impressive compared to a week ago.
Do you have any long term winter “predictions?”
http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/what-will-el-nino-bring/vi-AAfePAt?ocid=mailsignout
Most recent Weather Channel video trying to hone in on a dry, mild winter in KY…NOT BUYING THIS CRAP!