Good evening, gang. Our soggy and ugly weekend is wrapping up with steady rains on the increase. This sets the stage for more heavy rains over the next few days before we change it up a bit.

I’ve already hit on the heavy rain threat, so I won’t get into that again. Let’s talk about what happens after the rains finally end.

Things turn seasonally colder for Wednesday and Thursday…

NAM

The source region for that air isn’t very cold, so it’s only seasonal. As that comes in, a rain or snow shower will be possible Wednesday.

Then we focus on the potential for another system to roll our way by later next weekend into the following week. This is likely to come from another bowling ball type system…

GFS

We will have to wait and see exactly how that plays out, but another round of ugly weather is more than possible.

I’m seeing increasing signs of a significant change in the overall North American pattern for the second half of December. Among those signs… the CFS. This seasonal model has actually had a decent handle on the mild fall we’ve had. It’s now seeing the potential change to colder for much of the country. That could come in time for Christmas.

Check out the 10 day average temperature departures in Celsius…

CFS

CFS 2

The end of the operational models and the Ensembles are also signaling a colder setup by mid December. That could be a pattern for Christmas! 🙂

Until we get there, let’s track the rain we have tonight…

Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.