Severe Storms Threat

Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s Groundhog Day and things are looking to be a bit on the bumpy side for our favorite fury forecasters. Strong to severe thunderstorms will likely develop later today and sweep eastward across the bluegrass state.

I don’t have a lot of changes to my overall thinking from the past few days. Winds are going to be the biggest player from any storm that goes up. The setup is also favorable for a few tornadoes trying to spin up across the western half of the state, especially. Here are the early day percentages from the SPC…

With or without the thunderstorms… Winds can still gust to 50mph or so as the front sweeps eastward. With a soft ground from the recent snow melt and thaw, it might not take much wind to uproot some trees. Please keep that in mind through Wednesday morning.

I’m still watchin the HUGE trough digging into the central and eastern parts of the country early next week…

It’s going to be several more days before any model figures out what to do with that extreme setup. Surface maps from the models are pretty lost and jump around with each run of each model. That’s why I keep showing you the upper levels to illustrate the depth of the trough digging in. What it does to our actual weather remains to be seen.

I’ll get more into that after we get through the severe weather threat. Here are the tracking toys to get you through to the next update later today…

Today’s Risk Area

Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas

I will have updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.