Good Thursday to one and all. We continue to highlight early next week for a big return to winter across the eastern half of the country. Arctic cold temperatures and rounds of snows look to kick off a rather harsh winter pattern for our part of the world.

The weather between now and Sunday night looks pretty calm. Beyond that… it’s anything but calm.

The HUGE trough digging into the region Monday through Wednesday is likely to bring waves of light snow and snow squalls. Check out the GFS…

GFS 2

Look at how strong that northwesterly flow is. With multiple disturbances moving in and the Great Lakes waters warmer than normal… look out. If that flow does indeed set up like the GFS suggests, snows could add up over the course of that 3 day period. That particular run shows some decent totals…

GFS SnowThat’s over the course of a 3 day period with the chance the model is a little underdone. Typical model variance will show up from run to run, so don’t get overall attached to any one map.

The GFS Ensembles individual members from WeatherBELL lend support to the operational GFS.

MONDAY EVENING

GFS 3

TUESDAY AFTERNOON

GFS 4

Bitterly cold air and gusty winds cap off this run of the GFS and the model is sending wind chills below zero at times…

GFS Temps

I will update things later today, so check back.

Make it a good day and take care.