Good Thursday to one and all. We continue to highlight early next week for a big return to winter across the eastern half of the country. Arctic cold temperatures and rounds of snows look to kick off a rather harsh winter pattern for our part of the world.
The weather between now and Sunday night looks pretty calm. Beyond that… it’s anything but calm.
The HUGE trough digging into the region Monday through Wednesday is likely to bring waves of light snow and snow squalls. Check out the GFS…
Look at how strong that northwesterly flow is. With multiple disturbances moving in and the Great Lakes waters warmer than normal… look out. If that flow does indeed set up like the GFS suggests, snows could add up over the course of that 3 day period. That particular run shows some decent totals…
That’s over the course of a 3 day period with the chance the model is a little underdone. Typical model variance will show up from run to run, so don’t get overall attached to any one map.
The GFS Ensembles individual members from WeatherBELL lend support to the operational GFS.
MONDAY EVENING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON
Bitterly cold air and gusty winds cap off this run of the GFS and the model is sending wind chills below zero at times…
I will update things later today, so check back.
Make it a good day and take care.
It is going to be a cold one.
Would love to see more snow.
Light snow all week with potential accumulations. Then a big southern storm (that CB did not mention this post) to end the week. Sounds good to me.
Big Southern Storm you say? End of next week you say? And how much is it possibly going to drop… you didn’t say…
Just like the last one….depending on the track anywhere from 1-20 inches for the entire state. LMAO. CB showed this storm on his Wednesday evening update. Go back and look at it and tell me what you think. If that run of the GFS verifies it would be a decent storm for all. But it is over a week away so no need to get excited especially with freezing cold air all the way to the gulf.
Good response! Freezing air to the gulf usually doesn’t bode well for a favorable southern track for us. Rodger in Dodger!
looks good,they talk of the southern storm now on weather channel but looks to miss this area
Thanks Chris. I noticed some of the other local mets are trying to get proactive on the upcoming snow chances. Interesting.
I too hope the possible southern storm is still a possibility.
Catch is they are not big chances. Even CB noted after the next few weeks we will be heading into spring transition.
Looks like most of us got our big fish a few weeks ago and now will be guppies the rest of way. Big snow chances are east, NE.
Oh shoot, I missed that Bubba. I thought he was talking about a southern storm and still more snow chances in February?
Clipper snow squalls are fun but we need the southern branch to get active again. No mention of it from Mr Bailey on this update after the Canadian looked promising 12 hours ago? Rodger in Dodger
Looks like we are likely done as far as legit big snow chances.
Could not help but recalling winter of 1977/78. On this date Lexington had 4″ on the ground. From January 13 to March 10, at least 1″ snow was always on the ground, while peaking at about 14″ in January.
I like your thoughts. Louisville is a few inches above last years total at this time. Plenty of winter to go. And if it gets warm an stays warm I won’t complain, but I would like to see a couple more monster storms this year.
Ok, I believe chances are good for a southern storm system of some form to develop (May or may not be over our region.) Reason being, the Arctic express plunging down south are on all the models. After the Arctic blast, it is looking ikely a displacement of the PV may dive down into the great lakes late next week. When Arctic air retreats, it usually likes to develop a low over or near the Gulf. We have multiple chances and an extended period of time for a southern low to develop. I would be very surprised if none were to develop. Nonetheless, Noreaster are usually more likely with this setup. If lows form too far east, it’s a coastal storm, or ocean. We have have a TON of cold air to work with, El Niño’s typically active Southern jet stream just needs to kick in.
Israel, Just kidding….SPOILSPORT!! 😉
Man, this is depressing!!
No midday update!? Must not be looking good for snow lovers
LIKE
or he might just be relaxing before this Harsh period of wintery weather moves in.
Serious you all are making me smile, on 2-4, your looking at models and saying it looks like we are done with big snow chances….COME ON MAN! you can say that when here in ky on one sat 14 inches of snow and exactly 7 days later 65 degrees! Anything can happen, including big snows!
Was thinking the same thing myself.
I like your optimism Bengal! Trying to keep the negative Nancy’s out of my head! They’re a hard bunch though! Hoping we get a few more sled worthy days!!
Just like i guaranteed my daughter that U of L would beat North Carolina Monday night. I guarantee Clyde Jenkins that we will have another couple sled worthy snow days. Might not be a big snow, but will be sled worthy. HA HA from one Jenks to another.
I’m all for it!! Deal!! Although I hope you win
I was going by CB. He clearly said after the next few weeks we can look to spring transition. He would comment if he thought the winter wildness was still a good shot.
I agree with you! We are at Feb 4th with most areas already receiving a winter total of 12 inches + and people are being negative. Forget the groundhog forecast as even less than 6 more weeks of bad weather could bring at least 1 (or more) decent snows. Also, the setup coming up over the next few weeks is highly favorable for at least a threat of southern branch winter systems. I think we could even rival last winter’s overall accumulation season totals, but we will not keep the ground covered for weeks straight as we are much warmer this winter.
Forget ankle biters, I still think we could get a knee knocker or thigh twister yet:P
We will receive several more snow event’s through the month of March. Like to see at least a foot of snow on the ground!!
Trends, it’s all about trends. CB has said this for years and people that post here rarely pay attention. Funny to watch.
Also, three (that’s THREE) 12+ in. Snows in less than 12 months!!! 2, 3, 4 inch snows are great, be happy
I am good with none 🙂
Richmond had two 17″ snows last year and 15″ this year. I’m “good”. 🙂
YOu Turned soft?
Thanks Chris. Brrrrrr! Will be waiting to seeupdates as this gets closer. Have a great Thiursday (or FRIDAY EVE) 😀 everyone
What happened to the mention of 77/78 snows? I still remember those! I know he alluded that the years looked similar? Does he still think that’s the case based on models and past trends?