Good Sunday, folks. It’s not exactly the Super Bowl of winter weather, but we do have a rather harsh week of winter on the way to our region. Rounds of snow, gusty winds and shots of arctic air will combine to give us a taste of the frozen tundra. Get ready for a lot a lengthy update with lots of maps. 🙂
A cold front blows through here overnight with a band of rain and snow along and behind it. That could put down some light accumulations for a few spots to start Monday, but most areas should be ok during the morning. After a bit of a midday break in the action, snow showers and squalls become widespread by Monday evening. That action should continue through Tuesday and Wednesday.
The simulated radar from the NAM…
That’s a stout northwesterly flow coming across the warmer than normal Great Lakes. The air aloft and at the surface looks very cold through the week. Check out this flow…
A clipper or two will try to sneak in at some point from late Thursday through Friday. The models differ on when, but all show a few of them impacting our weather.
With such cold air in place, the fluff factor of the snow is going to be up there. That means the same amount of moisture that normally produces one inch of snow could produce two or three inches. The GFS continues to pick up on that factor very well. Here’s what the model thinks will happen through FRIDAY…
You can definitely see the Lake Michigan influence showing up with that run. Please keep in mind… that’s a model projection that is over the span of 5 days. Repeat… 5 days.
While I agree with the overall premise of what the model shows, snow totals and placement during the week will depend on several factors. Wind direction and duration, snow squalls that move over repeat areas, and the path of any clipper action.
As I have said, most areas pick up a general 1″-4″ this coming week with higher amounts a possibility. The mountains in the east stand the best chance of seeing totals that can really add up.
The temps for the week ahead are VERY cold! The GFS forecast for morning lows…
Wind chills…
From there, the GFS loses its way as another huge blast of arctic air appears poised to invade next weekend. The Canadian Model shows a snow maker ahead of it for late Friday…
The European Model is very similar with this…
Some absolutely insane cold air is showing up on the European Model for next weekend…
If correct, below zero temps could push deep into the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys by Valentine’s morning. Wind chills could be crazy low.
The European Model then follows that up with a decent snow threat…
The Canadian model at the same time…
Lots of winter action on the way over the next few weeks and it gets started late tonight into Monday.
I will update things later today. Until then, make it a good one and take care.
Thanks a bunch CB. Old man winter isn’t done yet. Go Broncs.
I live in Flatwoods, Ky but always come here to find out what’s happening with the winter weather. You’re a great meteorologist Chris. Keep up the good work!
Scenic snow is nice 🙂 Thanks, CB!
Already warming up out there today. I’m ready for some more snow action. Fluffy is good! It will be exciting to see if the southern storm comes to fruition next weekend.
Agreed CoalMinerD- Go Broncos! I’d really like to see Peyton go out with a win. Gonna be tough. And how about those Cats?!
That GFS snowfall map is showing around a foot for my area which is quite a bit more than what we got during the last storm lol
Is that map really suggesting below-zero temperatures down into Miss, Ala and Ga? How often does that happen?
Certainly looks like a harsh period. Thanks for keeping us updated and aware of the situation CB!
On a side note…went on a section hike of the Sheltowee Trace yesterday in McCreary County. Let me just say, WARZONE! Downed trees everywhere from the major winter storm from a couple weeks ago. Made the trail very difficult and dangerous to navigate. I would say trail systems across southern and eastern KY over the next several months will be in extremely bad shape. Lots of cleanup to done.
Will we see a snowfall map through Wednesday from Chris, or is this just to tough to pinpoint?
Looks like Knoxville is going to get rather chilly. We missed out on snow completely on Januuary 22, perhaps we will see some accumulations out of this system. Be safe.
Hey my Spring break is in the middle of March, any chance we get any Spring weather around here by then?
Weather channel saying all rain tomorrow for much of ky.. This seems to be a system that no one really knows what to expect.
Drew, unless they change it from this morning there were saying snow showers across the state after a rain event tonight
The cold seems forsure, i guess the snow will be a nowcaster type?
That’s what I am thinking as well.. I don’t like these squall type events because it seems like the Ashland area never gets what is expected. Guess this one will be a wait and see event! Accuweather says 3-6 inches for my area by Wednesday. Weather channel says rain, noaa says tenth to a quarter of an inch, and CB says 1-4 inches. Lol
Not sure what to think with this event. Maybe by his next update we will know more!
I hear ya fetch. Cats played awesome last night! How about Jamal Murray! I feel that this will be Mannings last game, win or lose. Just my opinion. Hoping for some snow this week. Upslope events tend to over perform here in the SE.