Good Sunday, folks. It’s not exactly the Super Bowl of winter weather, but we do have a rather harsh week of winter on the way to our region. Rounds of snow, gusty winds and shots of arctic air will combine to give us a taste of the frozen tundra. Get ready for a lot a lengthy update with lots of maps. 🙂

A cold front blows through here overnight with a band of rain and snow along and behind it. That could put down some light accumulations for a few spots to start Monday, but most areas should be ok during the morning. After a bit of a midday break in the action, snow showers and squalls become widespread by Monday evening. That action should continue through Tuesday and Wednesday.

The simulated radar from the NAM…

NAM

That’s a stout northwesterly flow coming across the warmer than normal Great Lakes. The air aloft and at the surface looks very cold through the week. Check out this flow…

GFS Temps

A clipper or two will try to sneak in at some point from late Thursday through Friday. The models differ on when, but all show a few of them impacting our weather.

With such cold air in place, the fluff factor of the snow is going to be up there. That means the same amount of moisture that normally produces one inch of snow could produce two or three inches. The GFS continues to pick up on that factor very well. Here’s what the model thinks will happen through FRIDAY…

GFS Snow

You can definitely see the Lake Michigan influence showing up with that run. Please keep in mind… that’s a model projection that is over the span of 5 days. Repeat… 5 days.

While I agree with the overall premise of what the model shows, snow totals and placement during the week will depend on several factors. Wind direction and duration, snow squalls that move over repeat areas, and the path of any clipper action.

As I have said, most areas pick up a general 1″-4″ this coming week with higher amounts a possibility. The mountains in the east stand the best chance of seeing totals that can really add up.

The temps for the week ahead are VERY cold! The GFS forecast for morning lows…

GFS Temps 2

Wind chills…

GFS Temps 3

From there, the GFS loses its way as another huge blast of arctic air appears poised to invade next weekend. The Canadian Model shows a snow maker ahead of it for late Friday…

Canadian 2

The European Model is very similar with this…

Euro

Some absolutely insane cold air is showing up on the European Model for next weekend…

Euro 2

If correct, below zero temps could push deep into the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys by Valentine’s morning. Wind chills could be crazy low.

The European Model then follows that up with a decent snow threat…

Euro 3

The Canadian model at the same time…

Canadian 4

Lots of winter action on the way over the next few weeks and it gets started late tonight into Monday.

I will update things later today. Until then, make it a good one and take care.