Good Thursday, folks. This has been an extreme winter across the bluegrass state. From record warmth to a historic snowstorm, to the harsh pattern we’re in now… There’s no shortage of wild. That wild continues to show up over the next week with more arctic air and the potential for a bigger storm.
In the short-term, skies become partly sunny. Temps will be in the high single digits to low teens to start, and low and middle 20s for the afternoon.
Arctic air is on the way for the weekend and could be introduced by a period of light snow and snow showers. That arrives Friday…
Some light accumulations can’t be ruled out with that setup. Winds will become very gusty as readings drop toward 10 degrees by Saturday morning. Those northwesterly winds may bring some Lake Michigan snow showers into parts of central and eastern Kentucky early in the day…
Temps behind this are trending colder. Take a look at the forecast lows…
Wind chill forecast for Saturday morning…
This takes us to Valentine’s Day and the potential for another snow maker. It’s looking like we may be dealing with two systems instead of just one. The first may be a light snow maker arriving during the daylight hours on Sunday. Here’s the European Model…
That initial snow band weakens as a stronger system develops to our southwest by Sunday night. This should track across the Tennessee Valley and then up the mountains or the east coast. Where that goes and how strong it gets will be the determining factor on how much snow we get across Kentucky. It could be a little or a lot, but it’s too early to tell.
The latest European Model isn’t as wrapped up with the storm as earlier runs…
The Canadian Model is a little stronger, but has a similar track…
For fun, here’s the snowfall forecast from that run of the Canadian…
Again, these are just snapshots of what the models are currently thinking. All I can tell you is we have the potential to be impacted by a developing winter storm system. The extent of that impact remains to be seen.
I’ll update things later today. Make it a great Thursday and take care.
Sweet
If our region sees the snow, I do not think it will be a repeat of last month, but the snow will be more liquid-like, nice packing wet snow instead of that dry powdery stuff. Concern with the wet snow is anything over 6″ could begin to cause power line and tree limb issues. At 9″, start worrying about collapsing non-sturdy carports.
The model dance is well underway for Sunday/Monday. Should be interesting. Rodger in Dodger
Warmed from 13 when I went to bed to 17 when I woke up here in Carrie of knott county, found it odd
We were 15 around 1 am this morning and now at 20 in Knox
Even areas of Montana stayed in the 40s overnight. Yet most if not all in our area will stay well below freezing today 🙁 .
Anyway, interesting links about so-called “river effect” snowfall:
https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=17771#comment-179485
Oh no, it’s not going to phase!
My excitement level just went down a ton.
It probably would have been north anyway, which would mean more rain for areas south. This at least gives more a chance for a decent snow maker for the area. Maybe.
Thelma Lou isn’t excited yet, says southern KY can expect that period of rain & “stuff” that always comes with these type systems. It’ the “stuff” that I worry about.
I have noticed that it’s already trending a bit north. Hope we still get in on the snow and not the other “stuff”. Of course my kids pointed out they are already out of school Monday so they would like any sort of hazardous weather precipitation to fall Monday night ensuring their snow day for Tuesday. Kids these days!
one more good snow for me and ill be happy bring on spring
If no big snow I would rather it stay dry. 50s and 60s by the end of the week. It just about over folks. Next weekend will be a good time to start picking up the yard and getting ready to mow in about a month.
Oh Boy! Don’t we all just love these over running storms out of the south. Could get really interesting around here come Sunday/Monday. Won’t be on shore until early Saturday so all the models willl continue to guess unitl then. The type of precip that we receive in Kentucky could be one of five. Rain/Sleet/ICE/Snow/ and the fith would be a mixture of all of them at tje same time. The FENCE (Ohio River) just might come into play with this one.
Latest AccuWeather snow map has the whole area totally missed. All the snow from the apps East. But then they say snow will start Sunday in Kentucky and move northeast. Maybe they mean start as snow. Confusing.
A lot of weather providers just “copy and paste” what the models say, especially the GFS.
If and when the GFS catches on to the potential winter storm there probably won`t be many “copy and paste” forecasters mentioning it.
Every outlet (Accuweather/TWC and others) will have something different over the next 48hrs. Until this system moves on shore all the models will differ over that time. They will all come into some type of agreement Saturday morning. No need to even look at any other outlet anyhow as we have the best right here with Chris Bailey.
CB noted the models are taking the low over Tennessee, which would suggest snow for Kentucky.
I’m hoping for a detailed update from CB at noon. I’m excited!!
Thanks Chris. Looking forward to the next update. Looks like someone somewhere is going to get another good snow. Waiting to see who and where. Have a great day all, and stay warm.
When does the snow arrive on Friday?
3PM 😉
Nice!
CB’s tweets make it sound like we are back in the game. This back and forth model nonsense reminds me of an old HS Girlfriend. We were on, then off, then on. Had the ol boyhood version of myself throughoughly confused. Thank goodness that one didn’t work out. I do however hope this Monday system works out!
Up Until 2 Years Ago We ALL Would Say that Possible Developing SNOW storms would Miss us, Models Would Show something Good. And wham, miss us (rain, then backend 1/4 in. Of snow).
But. Now we should like our chances. Yes this winter has been warm, rain, then cold big snow, back to warm, back to cold…but I like our chances with another good snow (6in+)
I guess you all can bring up what other outlets are going to say, but my only weather outlet is right here with Chris.
If Chris wants to make it snow then it will snow. (lol)
Canadian says “Not so fast.” to the warm air. It has a big hit for most of the state.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016021112/gem_asnow_us_23.png
I highly doubt that CMC run will verify…