Good Monday to one and all. It’s another warm day in the bluegrass state, but I’m focusing on a very busy pattern on the way for the next few weeks. It’s a pattern that can deliver rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rain numbers. It may also bring a shot of chilly air during the first week of May.

Let’s get into it…

Highs today range from the upper 70s to low 80s with just a small threat for a shower or storm going up.

From here, the pattern looks stormy for much of the eastern half of the country…

Special 2

The first system to bring us some showers and storms arrives late Tuesday and carries us through Thursday…

GFS 2

A few strong or severe storms will be possible during this time with heavy rainfall possible. The Hi Resolution NAM shows a torrential rain threat from a cluster of Tuesday night storms…

NAM

The regular run of the NAM through Wednesday night shows the heavy rain threat to be more expansive…

NAM 2

All signs continue to point toward a bigger storm system impacting the region next weekend…

GFS 3

Strong to severe storms and very heavy rains are very possible with that type a system.

Rainfall numbers over the next 10 days show the potential for a lot of action from the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley…

Canadian

Once the system from next weekend rolls through, temperatures are likely to tank into Kentucky Derby week…

Euro 3

That’s a lot of real estate with well below normal temperatures showing up. As a matter of fact, it could get cold enough for a kiss of frost…

GFS

Looking beyond that shot of chill, the models keep a very active pattern going…

GFS 4

Given the pattern I’ve been hawking and the current setup on the models, I doubt too many people are complaining about it being dry by the middle of May. Wait… What am I saying? Certain people claim it’s dry even when we are in the middle of our wettest year on record. 😉

Make it a great Monday and take care.